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PostPosted: Sat Oct 27, 2012 9:45 am
AN OPPOSING TEAM'S SCOUT ANALYZES THE WARRIORS

This is a bad team with an unproven coach and a bad mix of players. All of their players are overrated with the exception maybe of Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry -- and who knows what Curry can give them [because of his ankle problems that have lingered in the preseason].

The Warriors are making Andrew Bogut out to be the face of the franchise along with Curry, but I don't see it. Bogut is nothing special. He'd be an excellent complementary player. Bogut is a decent passer who blocks some shots, but he's never done it all. In Milwaukee, on nights when he had a decent defender on him, he'd be in big trouble and he didn't give them a lot.

There would be nights with Bogut when you'd say this guy is an All-Star, but there would also be way too many nights when he didn't show up. He has long arms and he's a legitimate 7-footer. I know he's had some great years numbers-wise as a rebounder, and sometimes he's been a pretty good range rebounder. But he has not done it consistently.

I'm not trying to kill Bogut. I didn't like him at all his rookie year, but then he kept growing on me. To be fair, he hasn't had much luck at all injury-wise [he's now been out all preseason while recovering from April ankle surgery]. Every year I did like him a little bit better, and maybe if he didn't get hurt he would have kept improving.

[Chris Mannix: What to expect from the Warriors this season]

I thought Curry would be a superstar, but injuries have set him back, too. I loved him as a pick-and-roll player. He made big shots and he had a great feel. People questioned whether he was a true point guard, but I think he can play the point in the NBA for a bunch of minutes, and every now and then he can move over to the 2. Obviously, he has some deficiencies defensively, but, man, can he play at the other end, to the point that he reminded me of Steve Nash on the pick-and-roll.

But now he's dealing with these ankle injuries, and you remember the Grant Hill deal in Orlando, where they were always telling you he was coming back from his ankle injury and he seldom did for them. If Curry were healthy, it would be huge. He's decent at handling the ball and he finds people in the pick-and-roll coming off screens. So they'll run those guys off screens and play a ton of pick-and-roll with Curry and give the ball to Bogut. Their best hope for this year is to establish Curry, Thompson and rookie Harrison Barnes with good years -- and even then I don't think they'll have a sniff at the playoffs.

Some people have compared Barnes to Glen Rice. Let's say that's what Barnes is -- then you'll have two great shooters in Barnes and Thompson around Curry at the point, and they'll still have to find a 4. If they do find a 4, Bogut would be perfect in that system and they'd have a future.

[Ben Golliver: Handicapping the Rookie of the Year race]

Thompson can shoot the hell out of it. He can get a shot off screens with a really quick release, particularly for a young guy. He can change a game with his jump shot. Klay has good size at 6-7, and he's a Reggie Miller type in the way they use him. He knows how to play off screens and he knows what to do with the ball in a little space. He's not great with the dribble, so you have to make him put it to the floor. But over the year he got better at that. He plays with a lot of energy. It's not quite the constant running that you see from Ray Allen, but that's the type of player he is. I think everybody in the league likes him.

I think Richard Jefferson is going to cause headaches. He's getting older [Jefferson is 32], he's paid way too much money [two years and $21.2 million left on his contract] and he thinks he's better than he is. He has an answer for everything and he's very tough to coach. I think a veteran guy on a bad team like this is going to want out, and the only way to do that is to turn yourself into a bigger headache.

Everyone says David Lee is a great guy, but talk about overrated. He's looking for his own numbers big-time. I'm guessing he leads the league in rebounds off missed free throws. He has turned himself into a 20-and-10 guy -- an accomplishment, for sure. But he's never been a guy who is constantly helping on defense. The story you hear from the Knicks is that his teammates used to call him FEMA, because he's never there when you need him. Lee is always there when he can take a charge, but when you're getting beat around the basket after contesting a shot because you're trying to make a play, he's not coming over to cover for you. He takes charges and pumps his fist, but when you really watch him you see the things he doesn't do.

Lee has a lot going for him, though. He has a reputation for being a gym rat and he does a lot of things well. But what you need from him first and foremost is to be a defender, and he's just not that guy. You can't put up those kinds of numbers without being a hell of an NBA player, but I don't think you can win with him. Maybe if he were playing for somebody who had juice, like one of the Van Gundy brothers or Gregg Popovich or Tom Thibodeau, then you could get the best out of him. If he played for a coach who cared about the defensive end and would put him on the bench, then maybe Lee could have an unbelievable career. But Mike D'Antoni didn't emphasize the defensive assignments, and Mark Jackson doesn't care about them, either.

I don't have faith in Jackson's becoming a good coach. I don't know what he does for that team. Everybody says he was a coach on the floor when he played, but I don't think he has a good feel for the game. I don't know why a team would hire someone who played but has never coached. It works sometimes, but more often than not it doesn't. He doesn't have a system that I can see. When I watch them play, I can't tell what his philosophy is or what he's trying to accomplish.

[Lee Jenkins: Pacific Division preview]

I had no idea how they were playing the pick-and-roll, which is the goal for some teams -- they don't want you to know and they play it differently every time. He had a really short playbook last year, and a lot of times that's a good idea. He has a decent feel when it comes to getting a shot for Thompson or whoever is the hot guy. But I don't see him establishing consistency, and eventually that affects everything. It wasn't a big deal last year, but this year they have higher expectations -- which I disagree with, obviously -- and he'll have guys like Jefferson and Bogut who are going to sniff out the inconsistencies. Lee will be too smart to complain because he'll be getting his 20-and-10, but apart from him, I'll be shocked if they don't start to have problems with Jackson.

Jarrett Jack is another guy who might make things tough for Jackson if they aren't establishing a solid system. I love Jack's toughness. He plays with heart, and though he isn't a true point guard, he will try to guard people and run stuff for you. But the older he gets, the more he knows, and I've heard he can be a handful to coach. On a team with leadership and discipline, Jack can be a great third guard. Let's put it this way: I think he's one of those guys who can make a good team better and he can also make a bad team worse.

Carl Landry isn't what he used to be. He was at his best with the second unit and you could throw him the ball in the post. Maybe this is an opportunity for him to re-establish himself.

I used to love Andris Biedrins. But no one has seen him perform for years now, and it's not like it's Jackson's fault. Biedrins has now had three coaches [Jackson, Don Nelson and Keith Smart] he hasn't been able to play for. Nelson loved him and then killed his confidence, and Biedrins has never recovered. He was one of those guys who played his butt off and would dunk hard on a pick-and-roll. He's the worst free-throw shooter in the NBA, so he doesn't want to get fouled.

Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/b ... z2AWDJYSsE


I don't want to be a downer, but let's say I'll be surprised if we beat more teams than we lose to.
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 27, 2012 11:42 am
Fuk these guys. We're going to the mfken playoffs barring any major injuries. I feel it in my balls.
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 27, 2012 12:02 pm
If I wanted to see people say wrong things about things I'd just watch first take.

These guys said vague, blanket comments, and frankly, saying Bogut is nothing special is dumb. If you are using traditional stats Lee and Bogut are the same player. If you are advanced stats you'd realize that Bogut is ****ing amazing on defense. The Bucks defensive efficiency with him on the court was 3rd and without him was 29th. Which is why Lee will be better on defense. Because of Bogut.

Their analysis is on par with saying the Heat beat the Thunder because they just wanted it more.

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 27, 2012 12:53 pm
i like your '**** them' attitude. i would say warriors fans are entitled to that.

personally, to me there are three main issues that worries me (besides injury concerns):

1. lack of speed and power in our starting guards. of course, most say, it will be compensated by their stellar shooting. but it leaves one crucial, or at least i think so, thing out - we have no slasher. just no one to get to the rim even to the sf spot. i hope barnes can do that, but not likely to happen this season.

2. elimination of running game and switching to half court offense. we have no post players that start, lee is not, bogut is not. i know multiple screens work and pick n roll should work but we have not been using P'n'R through all last season. and we have no stretch four to open the floor. see miami. we seem to be trying to play traditional way. the whole successful part of the league besides the team that has howard is going the other direction. that is playing pfs at center and forward positions. for running and opening the floor.

3. i have yet to see mark jackson make inventive decisions during game flow.

so, it seems, my main worries are strategy and tactics. and yes i would like a slasher or two, but let's say curry and thompson evens it out with steller shooting. which, paradoxically, needs open space.
will half court have enough of it for this current team - we'll see.

i think our bench is good, btw.
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 27, 2012 1:36 pm
martin wrote:2. elimination of running game and switching to half court offense. we have no post players that start, lee is not, bogut is not. i know multiple screens work and pick n roll should work but we have not been using P'n'R through all last season. and we have no stretch four to open the floor. see miami. we seem to be trying to play traditional way. the whole successful part of the league besides the team that has howard is going the other direction. that is playing pfs at center and forward positions. for running and opening the floor.


Wrong, wrong, and wrong. You're wrong all over this one. I think we will at least be average in half court offense. No post player? Have you not seen Lee play in the post? He has a right and left hook. You can put him on either block and he could finish. On top of that, with Bogut next to him, he's going to see a lot less double teams. And on top of THAT, he has the best perimeter shooters in the entire league. Rush, Thompson, Curry, Rush, and Richardson. If anyone of their defenders leave to help on Lee, it's going to be easy buckets. That's gonna give him all the space he needs to operate on that low block.

No stretch 4? All of our power forwards can extend 15-20 feet and drain a jumper. I've seen Lee, Landry, and Tyler make shots on the perimeter. I'm assuming that you're not talking about 3 point range because you use Miami as an example and although I've seen Bosh hit a few, he does not do this on a daily -- heck, not even a weekly basis.

Curry was out for most of the season, and that hurted our pick and roll offense a lot. If Curry stays healthy he has 2 pick and roll options. He can run the pick and roll with Bogut and that's going to be good for us. Even more deadlier is the 2 man game with Lee. With Lee you have 3 options. You can run the pick and roll, pick and pop, or the shadow pick.

Like you said though, this is barring any major injuries. If we're healthy, by god, this team is making the playoffs. Like I said in the other post, man. I feel it in my fukken balls.
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 27, 2012 2:07 pm
let me clarify - when i speak of low post i have in mind back/close to the basket player. lee isn't that, yes he has a hook but it usually is done when taking his man off the dribble beginning in high post or a baseline. whenever he posts up it looks forced and while i have no metrics to prove my point, last year it was terrible to watch him turned to traditional pf. he can't back people down.

as for stretch four - bosh is a center for miami and he's extending range. lebron is pf and he stretches the floor.
same for okc - ibaka at center (though he has no 3 point range) and durant at pf. two best teams in nba. stretching the **** out of the floor.

i also happened to watch toronto this preseason (hey, my man valanciunas is lithuanian) - and having bargnani to stretch the floor made things so much easier for him. ditto for timberwolves with love hitting threes. yes, i know memphis is quite good and have no stretch four, but damn they have two low post back to the basket beasts.

yes, warriors could and should run pick n roll. but i swear last seasons it didn't look like they even considered it. i won't go back to the games thread, but that was expressed not only by me.

hell, i must trust your balls feeling instead.
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 27, 2012 2:34 pm
When Brown and Bitchrins got hurt Lee had to play extended minutes at the 5. Lee is no god damn center and expecting him to back down true centers in the NBA in unrealistic. That's the reason why you saw him take those hook shots off the dribble; That was his advantage against bigger and stronger opponents. This is not going to happen when Lee play against traditional power forwards. Just to give you an example, here are some weight of players that are 4's and 5's.

Power forwards:
LaMarcus Aldridge - 240ibs
Dirk Nowitzki - 245ibs
Blake Griffin 250ibs
Amare Stoudemire - 245ibs
Paul Milsap 250ibs

Centers:
Al Jefferson - 290ibs
Andrew Bynum - 285ibs
Demarcus Cousins - 265ibs
Marc Gasol - 265ibs
Roy - Hibbert 280ibs

In some cases you have some 4's that are heavy as ****, like Kevin Love, but he's just a big mfker. But you can see the difference between the average weight of a center and a power forward. Can you imagine Lee, who is 240ibs, trying to back down someone like Al Jefferson or Roy Hibbert? Hell nah. And don't get me wrong, this isn't the case all the time, but if you put Lee up with tradition power forwards, it will be more likely that he could back some of these guys down.

With Miami and OKC, they counteract their size with speed. There is no one way of winning. You assess your deficiencies and you counter act them with your talent. In our case, we don't have a slasher, but we will counteract that with the best 3 point shooting in the league. Whether or not if that takes us deep into the playoffs remains to be seen.

And oh yeah. I realized that Toronto has the best preseason record, but I will go on record and say that they ain't gon be **** this season. Yeah, Bargani is a stretch 5 but that guy couldn't stop a nose bleed.
Last edited by 8th ave on Sat Oct 27, 2012 2:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 27, 2012 2:36 pm
And like I said. Curry went down and he's our best pick and roll initiator. Of course something like that is gonna effect your frequency of pick and roll plays.
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 27, 2012 3:20 pm
8th ave wrote:When Brown and Bitchrins got hurt Lee had to play extended minutes at the 5. Lee is no god damn center and expecting him to back down true centers in the NBA in unrealistic. That's the reason why you saw him take those hook shots off the dribble; That was his advantage against bigger and stronger opponents. This is not going to happen when Lee play against traditional power forwards. Just to give you an example, here are some weight of players that are 4's and 5's.

Power forwards:
LaMarcus Aldridge - 240ibs
Dirk Nowitzki - 245ibs
Blake Griffin 250ibs
Amare Stoudemire - 245ibs
Paul Milsap 250ibs

Centers:
Al Jefferson - 290ibs
Andrew Bynum - 285ibs
Demarcus Cousins - 265ibs
Marc Gasol - 265ibs
Roy - Hibbert 280ibs

In some cases you have some 4's that are heavy as ****, like Kevin Love, but he's just a big mfker. But you can see the difference between the average weight of a center and a power forward. Can you imagine Lee, who is 240ibs, trying to back down someone like Al Jefferson or Roy Hibbert? Hell nah. And don't get me wrong, this isn't the case all the time, but if you put Lee up with tradition power forwards, it will be more likely that he could back some of these guys down.

With Miami and OKC, they counteract their size with speed. There is no one way of winning. You assess your deficiencies and you counter act them with your talent. In our case, we don't have a slasher, but we will counteract that with the best 3 point shooting in the league. Whether or not if that takes us deep into the playoffs remains to be seen.

And oh yeah. I realized that Toronto has the best preseason record, but I will go on record and say that they ain't gon be **** this season. Yeah, Bargani is a stretch 5 but that guy couldn't stop a nose bleed.


Well said +1

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 27, 2012 5:28 pm
has lee ever played pf? he was a center for new york most of the time. point: he might have no skills of being a low post pf threat because of the situation he's been in through all his career. will he put up numbers? sure. will he put them starting from low post? let's say about one third of it. he won't be zach randolph and the likes of zach, hell, even aldridge will back him down easily.

as i said my concern is lack of speed. have i said they will suck? no. do i think they won't be as good as most warrior fans expect - yes i do.

shooting takes you that far.

points in the paint, spreading the floor and running takes you much further in the current nba.

i hope i'm wrong and warriors play amazing pick n roll with lee and bogut passing out to wings if they are covered for killer threes. i hope. but i haven't seen that. i will however get to see if that is what it will be come next week.

and if you're a re right, come and see me celebrating the **** out of it in games thread.

fast break? anyone remember that thing. will it come back?

p.s. toronto will be fine in the east. it's not like david lee is much better defender than bargnani.
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 27, 2012 5:31 pm
8th Ave is killin it in this thread :D
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 27, 2012 6:36 pm
martin wrote:has lee ever played pf? he was a center for new york most of the time. point: he might have no skills of being a low post pf threat because of the situation he's been in through all his career. will he put up numbers? sure. will he put them starting from low post? let's say about one third of it. he won't be zach randolph and the likes of zach, hell, even aldridge will back him down easily.

as i said my concern is lack of speed. have i said they will suck? no. do i think they won't be as good as most warrior fans expect - yes i do.

shooting takes you that far.

points in the paint, spreading the floor and running takes you much further in the current nba.

i hope i'm wrong and warriors play amazing pick n roll with lee and bogut passing out to wings if they are covered for killer threes. i hope. but i haven't seen that. i will however get to see if that is what it will be come next week.

and if you're a re right, come and see me celebrating the **** out of it in games thread.

fast break? anyone remember that thing. will it come back?

p.s. toronto will be fine in the east. it's not like david lee is much better defender than bargnani.


loldude Lee's natural position is PF. Why the hell do you have an opinion if you don't even know what position Lee plays? Your concern about lack of speed? You are concerned about the ability to hit threes? Every team has fast breaks, but this is a half court team now.

It doesn't matter what you think opposed to what Warrior fans think. All your concerns are silly because none of these are problems for the Warriors. All advanced stats and traditional stats if you are into those suggest if the Warriors stay healthy they will be in the playoffs. What metric are you basing your opinion off of?

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 27, 2012 7:12 pm
Oh, for ****'s sake, Lee's natural position is pf, wow, big argument isn't it? Dirk is pf. Is he a low post player?
Lee is good in high post, pick n roll, always been, has he been good low post player? Oh, he played center, well, he did, and all offensive success he had was .. well, playing center, how did he do that - by taking them off the dribble.
Duran't natural position is sf, but the team plays better when he's pf. Natural positions is like 5 years too late in the show. They are not all there is to be successful in modern basketball.
If we are a half court team, then we rely on outside shooting. No back to the basket players.
We have no speed in starting lineup guard spots, who would be the ones to leak out onto fast break.
We have a coach who didn't use pick n roll, and no, not only when Curry went down.
We have high post offense (that devil horns thing) in our playbook going through Lee as a main thing. And Thompson going off the screens. All the rest looked like a mess last season.
Bogut was not and probably will not be a monster on offense. Lee now will have less space to operate. He will get less points, less rebounds, and will be eaten on defense as usual. As for defense, Thompson, Curry and Lee are all subpar defensive players. Bogut will not defend two positions. As won't Barnes or Rush, whomever starts.
And to be successful half court team you rather have great offense if your defense is lacking. And I just don't see how our half court offense suddenly becomes great bearing in mind what kind of offense they played last year.

Now we have better players, but there's little to no evidence if they will be used in more productive way.

I have yet to see any analyst saying warriors are sure to make playoffs. The best scenario I saw was they will be battling for that 8th spot with Timberwolves, Mavs and Jazz. Losing out to them might mean tenth in the west.
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 27, 2012 8:04 pm
You asked if he even played PF. I think that's a sign of ignorance on the topic you are arguing.

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2012 4:41 am
Dude, way to pick lines from the context to seem a highground smartass.
Lee played center in his most productive career years.
Whether or not his natural position is pf, says close to nothing in regards of his ability to play pf next to traditional center in half-court offense.
At this point it's conjecture.
You end up at optimistic side of this conjecture, I only voice my concerns.
I have seen Lee running pick n rolls, pick n pops, finishing in transition, taking an open jumper, but i haven't seen him being dominant as back to the basket player in the low post.
And I predict he won't be doing that, and for him to have space to operate off the dribble, he'll have to have Bogut out of the paint, and Bogut, from what I know, has no range. Marc Gasol has, thus it works for Zach Randolph.
I see the addition of Bogut as a challange for Lee.
He's never been in the situation where he has a reportedly good and big center to play along.
You might think this is necessarily good, but this is not written in stone.
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