2012-'13 Warriors Scouting Reports
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Nice read and I agree, except maybe that Lee is to be ranked 4th, I think 2nd or 3rd, flip Curry with him and Klay 4th. Klay really could breakput, but he has everything to prove and not much pressure either, as his rise is just a plus that really not many expected when he was drafted.
![]() ![]() migya make the ring fall on ya |
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Fair enough; I admit, I typically value big men higher than guards out of principle most of the time. Lee is rated higher than Thompson, despite being less skilled, because he's a better option at power forward than Thompson is at shooting guard. That's not to say that I'm not a huge Thompson fan or a believer in Klay (I am, on both accounts); I just think his skills are easier to replace than those of Lee. We can find another scorer in the draft or on the free agent market, but another screen-setting 4 with a jumper like Lee (who pulls down 10 rebounds a game, to boot) is more difficult to come by. In fact, after Webber, we didn't get one for going on 15 years.
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Whose "official" pre-season scouting report should we trust? Anyway, this is awesome stuff. I can tell you put a lot of work into it, nicely done. About the boards, I think Lee is a good rebounder but not a great one. The fact is, he inflated his career stats a bit during his stint with the Knicks (almost 12 a game in back to back seasons), and our previous inability to find another legit big to pair him with so far in O-Town has kept his numbers artificially high. Keep in mind a few things: the Warriors have had the 5th and 10th fastest pace in the league since Lee joined, which means there are a lot more rebounds available per game. Also, without a second rebounder on the roster, he gets more uncontested defensive rebounds than most bigs in the league (Dwight probably leads in that category every year...). I think we should look more closely at Total Rebounding Rate, a measure of the percentage of rebounds a player collects whenever on the floor. Its not perfect (see point number two about intra-team competition), but its telling. Among players who got 25+ minutes a game (basically, starter's minutes), Lee was around 30th league wide (at 14.5%, and 15.3% the year before but his ranking was essentially the same). And some of the guys in his range have super-tough team competition for rebounds (for example, Marc Gasol has to share with Zach Randolph and Rudy Gay every game). For comparison, Bogut was at 18.2% and 17.9% his last two full seasons, which put him about 10th both years. When the season ends, I expect them to each average around 8-9 rebounds a game, and that should get out of the team rebounding cellar. |
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Well, truth be told, there's a reason I went with total-rebounds instead of rebound-differential Excellent points, but I'll have to fortify my position respectfully: First off, to clarify: Lee only had one season under Mike D'Antoni. Off the bat, when one hears "Warriors and Knicks", they may be prone to believing that Lee had nothing but high-paced offenses to feast from, but Lee has played the majority of his career under Larry Brown, Isiah Thomas, and Mark Jackson's slower schemes, rather than the 2 seasons of run-and-gun he had with D'Antoni and Keith Smart. Regardless, Lee turned in 11.7 RPG averages in back-to-back seasons for Zeke and Mike D, so it seems to me that pace (while it may have a little effect on his numbers) doesn't make or break Lee's ability to be a top-tier rebounder. Also, at 7 seasons in the league, on two different squads, Lee has proven his numbers are anything but hollow or fickle. Troy Murphy had the double-double thing going on here, but once he left Oakland, his rebounding dropped rapidly. Lee has played in two different cities, for 5 different coaches, that run 5 different systems, and the results have been absolutely consistent. His teammates have included Andris Biedrins and Zack Randolph, both of whom have had seasons of over 9.5 RPG. While it's true that Lee's teams have typically been thin on rebounding help, to say that he's never had any backup is a little bit of a misnomer. The way I see it, anybody who puts up 10 or more rebounds per game is among the league's fiercest on the glass; which is why I used that terminology... but maybe I just dole out that term a little more liberally than you other good folks. On the subject of advanced statistics, the reason Lee fails in Total Rebounding Rate is because of the problem I addressed in his weakness section: he doesn't keep opposing hounds off the glass. Rebounding Rate not only tracks your ability, but it measures your opponents' rebounding as well. Because Lee gets into mano-y-mano rebounding battles with the opposing player's finest glass freak, his Rebounding Rate looks worse than someone who plays center... because 5's typically don't rebound as well as 4's. David Lee may have been 31st among PF's in the league last year, but Shawn Marion (a widely accepted above-average rebounder) was 46th, while Jordan Hill ranked 4th and Lou Amundson ranked 16th. I think we can all agree that Taj Gibson, Drew Gooden, and Jason Maxiell are all decent rebounders (I'd take any of them above Lou Amundson) and they all ranked below Lee. To me, keeping your opposite number off the glass has more to do with team rebounding than personal ability. And lastly, regarding Bogut vs Lee on the glass, I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest (before Bogut even suits up) that Lee will be his superior in RPG by the season's end. Bogut isn't a slouch on the glass, but his tendency to contest shots limits his ability to collect possessions. Lee, on the other hand, NEVER contests and, thus, is always in position to grab boards. PS, Raider, you are absolutely one of the most intelligent posters I think I've ever crossed paths with here. I hope you continue to contribute throughout the season; we need guys with your knowledge to have a presence on this place. ![]() GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS DIE HARD ![]() ![]() |
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That's great information and I agree with 32, you are a nice addition to this forum I also don't think Lee is a great rebounder, but he is very good and the thing is that he is a good player in the team concept. He fits in and scores smartly, being a plus to the team in being a winning one now, at least I think. He also has to prove that he can be a major piece on a winning team, as his teams have always been rather bad. He is a top ten PF and to me, if he doesn't help the team win or at least it looks that way, he is very tradeable and should get very good value in return. ![]() ![]() migya make the ring fall on ya |
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Thanks for the kind words guys, glad to be here!
We may disagree a bit on how good Lee is on the boards, but I think we all agree that he's a positive asset for the team. He and Brandon Rush were my two favorite players last year because they seemed to bring their A game each and every night. I could see both of them getting major minutes for a legit title contender. |
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Well, seeing as we're getting some good discussion about Lee, how about we discuss him in tandem with his backup: Mr. Carl Landry. My scouting report for Landry:
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A month into the year, I give you... The rookies!
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