2012-'13 Warriors Scouting Reports

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2012 8:23 pm
Nice read and I agree, except maybe that Lee is to be ranked 4th, I think 2nd or 3rd, flip Curry with him and Klay 4th. Klay really could breakput, but he has everything to prove and not much pressure either, as his rise is just a plus that really not many expected when he was drafted.
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2012 8:37 pm
Fair enough; I admit, I typically value big men higher than guards out of principle most of the time. Lee is rated higher than Thompson, despite being less skilled, because he's a better option at power forward than Thompson is at shooting guard. That's not to say that I'm not a huge Thompson fan or a believer in Klay (I am, on both accounts); I just think his skills are easier to replace than those of Lee. We can find another scorer in the draft or on the free agent market, but another screen-setting 4 with a jumper like Lee (who pulls down 10 rebounds a game, to boot) is more difficult to come by. In fact, after Webber, we didn't get one for going on 15 years.
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 12, 2012 12:04 pm
Knightofoceans wrote:"Preseason Warrior's Player Rankings" - unofficial of course.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1365970-nba-preseason-golden-state-warriors-player-power-rankings


Whose "official" pre-season scouting report should we trust? :wink:

Anyway, this is awesome stuff. I can tell you put a lot of work into it, nicely done.

About the boards, I think Lee is a good rebounder but not a great one. The fact is, he inflated his career stats a bit during his stint with the Knicks (almost 12 a game in back to back seasons), and our previous inability to find another legit big to pair him with so far in O-Town has kept his numbers artificially high. Keep in mind a few things: the Warriors have had the 5th and 10th fastest pace in the league since Lee joined, which means there are a lot more rebounds available per game. Also, without a second rebounder on the roster, he gets more uncontested defensive rebounds than most bigs in the league (Dwight probably leads in that category every year...).

I think we should look more closely at Total Rebounding Rate, a measure of the percentage of rebounds a player collects whenever on the floor. Its not perfect (see point number two about intra-team competition), but its telling. Among players who got 25+ minutes a game (basically, starter's minutes), Lee was around 30th league wide (at 14.5%, and 15.3% the year before but his ranking was essentially the same). And some of the guys in his range have super-tough team competition for rebounds (for example, Marc Gasol has to share with Zach Randolph and Rudy Gay every game).

For comparison, Bogut was at 18.2% and 17.9% his last two full seasons, which put him about 10th both years. When the season ends, I expect them to each average around 8-9 rebounds a game, and that should get out of the team rebounding cellar.
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 12, 2012 12:51 pm
Raider1015 wrote:
Knightofoceans wrote:"Preseason Warrior's Player Rankings" - unofficial of course.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1365970-nba-preseason-golden-state-warriors-player-power-rankings


Whose "official" pre-season scouting report should we trust? :wink:

Anyway, this is awesome stuff. I can tell you put a lot of work into it, nicely done.

About the boards, I think Lee is a good rebounder but not a great one. The fact is, he inflated his career stats a bit during his stint with the Knicks (almost 12 a game in back to back seasons), and our previous inability to find another legit big to pair him with so far in O-Town has kept his numbers artificially high. Keep in mind a few things: the Warriors have had the 5th and 10th fastest pace in the league since Lee joined, which means there are a lot more rebounds available per game. Also, without a second rebounder on the roster, he gets more uncontested defensive rebounds than most bigs in the league (Dwight probably leads in that category every year...).

I think we should look more closely at Total Rebounding Rate, a measure of the percentage of rebounds a player collects whenever on the floor. Its not perfect (see point number two about intra-team competition), but its telling. Among players who got 25+ minutes a game (basically, starter's minutes), Lee was around 30th league wide (at 14.5%, and 15.3% the year before but his ranking was essentially the same). And some of the guys in his range have super-tough team competition for rebounds (for example, Marc Gasol has to share with Zach Randolph and Rudy Gay every game).

For comparison, Bogut was at 18.2% and 17.9% his last two full seasons, which put him about 10th both years. When the season ends, I expect them to each average around 8-9 rebounds a game, and that should get out of the team rebounding cellar.

Well, truth be told, there's a reason I went with total-rebounds instead of rebound-differential :wink: :mrgreen: Dubs have remained in the basement of that category since Lee's arrival, but I felt that that spoke to the lack of any rebounding help (as you alluded to).

Excellent points, but I'll have to fortify my position respectfully:

First off, to clarify: Lee only had one season under Mike D'Antoni. Off the bat, when one hears "Warriors and Knicks", they may be prone to believing that Lee had nothing but high-paced offenses to feast from, but Lee has played the majority of his career under Larry Brown, Isiah Thomas, and Mark Jackson's slower schemes, rather than the 2 seasons of run-and-gun he had with D'Antoni and Keith Smart. Regardless, Lee turned in 11.7 RPG averages in back-to-back seasons for Zeke and Mike D, so it seems to me that pace (while it may have a little effect on his numbers) doesn't make or break Lee's ability to be a top-tier rebounder.

Also, at 7 seasons in the league, on two different squads, Lee has proven his numbers are anything but hollow or fickle. Troy Murphy had the double-double thing going on here, but once he left Oakland, his rebounding dropped rapidly. Lee has played in two different cities, for 5 different coaches, that run 5 different systems, and the results have been absolutely consistent. His teammates have included Andris Biedrins and Zack Randolph, both of whom have had seasons of over 9.5 RPG. While it's true that Lee's teams have typically been thin on rebounding help, to say that he's never had any backup is a little bit of a misnomer. The way I see it, anybody who puts up 10 or more rebounds per game is among the league's fiercest on the glass; which is why I used that terminology... but maybe I just dole out that term a little more liberally than you other good folks. :wink:

On the subject of advanced statistics, the reason Lee fails in Total Rebounding Rate is because of the problem I addressed in his weakness section: he doesn't keep opposing hounds off the glass. Rebounding Rate not only tracks your ability, but it measures your opponents' rebounding as well. Because Lee gets into mano-y-mano rebounding battles with the opposing player's finest glass freak, his Rebounding Rate looks worse than someone who plays center... because 5's typically don't rebound as well as 4's. David Lee may have been 31st among PF's in the league last year, but Shawn Marion (a widely accepted above-average rebounder) was 46th, while Jordan Hill ranked 4th and Lou Amundson ranked 16th. I think we can all agree that Taj Gibson, Drew Gooden, and Jason Maxiell are all decent rebounders (I'd take any of them above Lou Amundson) and they all ranked below Lee. To me, keeping your opposite number off the glass has more to do with team rebounding than personal ability.

And lastly, regarding Bogut vs Lee on the glass, I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest (before Bogut even suits up) that Lee will be his superior in RPG by the season's end. Bogut isn't a slouch on the glass, but his tendency to contest shots limits his ability to collect possessions. Lee, on the other hand, NEVER contests and, thus, is always in position to grab boards.

PS, Raider, you are absolutely one of the most intelligent posters I think I've ever crossed paths with here. I hope you continue to contribute throughout the season; we need guys with your knowledge to have a presence on this place.
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 12, 2012 7:22 pm
Raider1015 wrote:
Knightofoceans wrote:"Preseason Warrior's Player Rankings" - unofficial of course.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1365970-nba-preseason-golden-state-warriors-player-power-rankings


Whose "official" pre-season scouting report should we trust? :wink:

Anyway, this is awesome stuff. I can tell you put a lot of work into it, nicely done.

About the boards, I think Lee is a good rebounder but not a great one. The fact is, he inflated his career stats a bit during his stint with the Knicks (almost 12 a game in back to back seasons), and our previous inability to find another legit big to pair him with so far in O-Town has kept his numbers artificially high. Keep in mind a few things: the Warriors have had the 5th and 10th fastest pace in the league since Lee joined, which means there are a lot more rebounds available per game. Also, without a second rebounder on the roster, he gets more uncontested defensive rebounds than most bigs in the league (Dwight probably leads in that category every year...).

I think we should look more closely at Total Rebounding Rate, a measure of the percentage of rebounds a player collects whenever on the floor. Its not perfect (see point number two about intra-team competition), but its telling. Among players who got 25+ minutes a game (basically, starter's minutes), Lee was around 30th league wide (at 14.5%, and 15.3% the year before but his ranking was essentially the same). And some of the guys in his range have super-tough team competition for rebounds (for example, Marc Gasol has to share with Zach Randolph and Rudy Gay every game).

For comparison, Bogut was at 18.2% and 17.9% his last two full seasons, which put him about 10th both years. When the season ends, I expect them to each average around 8-9 rebounds a game, and that should get out of the team rebounding cellar.



That's great information and I agree with 32, you are a nice addition to this forum :wink:

I also don't think Lee is a great rebounder, but he is very good and the thing is that he is a good player in the team concept. He fits in and scores smartly, being a plus to the team in being a winning one now, at least I think. He also has to prove that he can be a major piece on a winning team, as his teams have always been rather bad.

He is a top ten PF and to me, if he doesn't help the team win or at least it looks that way, he is very tradeable and should get very good value in return.
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 11:22 pm
Thanks for the kind words guys, glad to be here!

We may disagree a bit on how good Lee is on the boards, but I think we all agree that he's a positive asset for the team. He and Brandon Rush were my two favorite players last year because they seemed to bring their A game each and every night. I could see both of them getting major minutes for a legit title contender.
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 16, 2012 1:08 pm
Well, seeing as we're getting some good discussion about Lee, how about we discuss him in tandem with his backup: Mr. Carl Landry. My scouting report for Landry:

32 wrote:PF - 5 - Carl Landry

Strengths (+) -  Warriors fans will recognize Carl Landry as the player Ike Diogu should have turned into: a stocky, old school power forward with a 1970's skill-set and a dragon-esque wingspan. Landry is an extremely educated player from inside 6 feet, who knows how to score in a myriad of ways; he can sink it with contact, has a Monta Ellis spin from the triple threat, can use glass or net it straight, hides the ball well inside, and bullies the opposition every moment he's on the floor. He has a solid midrange that will reach out to 15 feet. Effort is never an issue, nor is character; Landry is an excellent locker room guy and a solid influence on young players. A supremely talented low-post option, Landry doesn't pass out of the low block because he doesn't have to. He can score in multiple coverage and is easily among the league's best bench power forwards. An asset on the offensive glass, Landry gives his team extra possessions and is furiously quick off of two feet for unblockable put-backs. A career 6th man, Landry is starter-quality without the egocentric urge to rock the boat when it comes to his coach's rotations.

Weaknesses (-) - Landry has a reputation as a bit of a foul machine and is anemic on the defensive end. While he isn't quite the red carpet that David Lee is, the two of them may combine to be the least efficient defensive tandem at power forward in the league. As mentioned above, Landry does not look to pass (ever) and has averaged a shade under twice as many turnovers as assists on his career. A below-average rebounder whose RP35 average on his life amounts to 7.1 - which puts him on the same level as Chris Bosh as far as useless 4's on the glass. Landry typically averages as many defensive rebounds as offensive rebounds, which would be great if he hauled down 14 a night, but as it stands, the results translate into a general lack of enthusiasm on the defensive glass. The bottom line is that Landry's contributions are entirely located on one side of the floor.

Offensive game... 4/5
Defensive game... 2/5
Intangibles............ 2.5/5
Skill.......................... 4/5
Effort...................... 4.5/5


Overall = 66
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2012 11:15 am
A month into the year, I give you... The rookies!

32 wrote:SF - 40 - Harrison Barnes

Strengths (+) -  Barnes is a tremendous shot-creater with the ball in his hands. He can score from a variety of spots on the floor and could possibly provide Golden State with their first true isolation option since the departure of Monta Ellis. He's already a plus forward out of the face-up position and possesses a Maggette-esque combination of strength and quickness (doesn't quite have the explosiveness though). A match-up problem for other teams, Barnes is wet from the perimeter, scores inside with contact, runs the floor, fills lanes, and seems to be equally adept at working from the corner, the elbow, and the top. Defensively, Barnes looks for rebounds in his direction and has a knack for the baseline block on the weak side. He's also a solid, if unspectacular, ball handler who can initiate the offense in small spurts. Overall, his offense is his main course and it looks to resemble a very early model of Paul Pierce. His ceiling is extremely high; the rest is up to Barnes to add. 

Weaknesses (-) - As mentioned above, Harrison Barnes is not supremely athletic in small spurts; his first step doesn't leave anybody in the dust and he has yet to finish above anybody (his size) on the drive. His most pressing offensive improvement needs to be the addition of a low-post game; while Barnes has already flashed a nifty fadeaway, he enters into it from a spin off the dribble. He's strong enough to bully opposing 3's if he can just figure out how to do it. Barnes is also a step slow, defensively. His man sneaks around him without the rock because Barnes tends to eye the ball-handler. HB's rebounding and defense is average at best. Barnes is also a bit shot-happy and Warriors fans must hope his tunnel vision clears up by the regular season.

Offensive game... 3.5/5
Defensive game... 2/5
Intangibles............ 2/5
Skill.......................... 4/5
Effort...................... 3.5/5


Overall = 60

C - 31 - Festus Ezeli

Strengths (+) -  Ezeli is an NBA ready enforcer. Pound for pound, he's the strongest player on the Golden State roster. Broad shouldered and cannon-armed, Ezeli is a physical, tenacious defender who looks for the block as often as the board. He's got veteran level footwork and hustles on every play. A potential starting center, Festus Ezeli uses his wide body as well as anybody taken in the 2012 draft by boxing his man out and using Garnett style wraps and locks as soon as the shot goes up. Offensively, Ezeli is already a thunderous finisher and has displayed a powerful post game in limited touches. Surprisingly, he's also hit jumpers out to 15 feet. He's also been an effective rebounder in terms of rebounding rate; a testament to his fundamental rebounding and team based box outs.

Weaknesses (-) - Typical rookie big men issues: Ezeli doesn't do much offensively, still has to figure out how to expand himself on screens, and picks up a bit too many fouls. It'd be nice to see him improve his rebounding and, fundamentally, he's inept at handling or passing the ball at this stage. The anti-Carl Landry, Ezeli is not in the game for any sort of offense and keeps to his role as the hard-fouling, smash-mouthed enforcer. 

Offensive game... 1.5/5
Defensive game... 4/5
Intangibles............ 3/5
Skill.......................... 2.5/5
Effort...................... 4/5


Overall = 58

SF/PF - 23 - Draymond Green

Strengths (+) - A top notch vocal leader and glue guy, Green's value is best described in terms of the team, rather than individual numbers. He understands spacing and knows where to be at all times. He's a smart defender who doesn't reach, moves his feet, and uses the defender's right to space as his biggest weapon. His shooting is above-average and should eventually open up the middle when he becomes a rotation player. He doesn't need to be the man; he's only concerned with winning. Green can rebound better than any current Warrior wing and looks to mix it up on the glass rather than leak out. Overall, Green will be a career sub, but his value is not to be diminished just because he doesn't seek out flashy plays or numbers. 

Weaknesses (-) - Green is athletically handicapped and quite possibly in over his head at the NBA level. He isn't quick enough to be a 3 and at 6'7" is undersized for a 4. He's a step slow, doesn't have the cleverness offensively to ever be an isolation option, and can't defend the elite class of NBA scorers. Green is best described as solid but unspectacular and that label may limit his potential as far as where he can go at the pro level.

Offensive game... 2/5
Defensive game... 2/5
Intangibles............ 4/5
Skill.......................... 2/5
Effort...................... 3/5


Overall = 52
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