*OFFICIAL Ping Pong Ball THREAD*

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» Fri Apr 16, 2010 3:30 pm
talkbanana2000 wrote:
bada wrote:
talkbanana2000 wrote:
bada wrote:Here is a link with all the tie breaker results and how many ping pong balls each lottery team has

http://www.nba.com/2010/news/04/16/draft.order/index.html?ls=iref:nbahpt2


Looks like not much of a change in "chance" between 4 and 5 Huh?


nope. they just evenly split the balls up and give the winner the one extra ball. However more importantly is the 4th SLOT rather than the extra ball.


Right..thanks


The way they divide up the chances makes you realise why I was so pissed off we won our last game and gave up the chance to get 52 more balls in the lottery!!! :evil:

Picking 4th instead of 5th is great, and Im glad..............but having 52 more chances to pick first, aswell as possibly being 3rd or at worst 4th would have been abit better huh?
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» Fri Apr 16, 2010 3:33 pm
bigstrads wrote:
talkbanana2000 wrote:
bada wrote:
talkbanana2000 wrote:
bada wrote:Here is a link with all the tie breaker results and how many ping pong balls each lottery team has

http://www.nba.com/2010/news/04/16/draft.order/index.html?ls=iref:nbahpt2


Looks like not much of a change in "chance" between 4 and 5 Huh?


nope. they just evenly split the balls up and give the winner the one extra ball. However more importantly is the 4th SLOT rather than the extra ball.


Right..thanks


The way they divide up the chances makes you realise why I was so pissed off we won our last game and gave up the chance to get 52 more balls in the lottery!!! :evil:

Picking 4th instead of 5th is great, and Im glad..............but having 52 more chances to pick first, aswell as possibly being 3rd or at worst 4th would have been abit better huh?


yup, but at least the damage was mitigated a bit by winning the toss.
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» Fri Apr 16, 2010 3:40 pm
Mathematically speaking (i.e. based on all possible permutations and combinations) the chance that we actually pick 4th is relatively low. There is about a 35% chance that we pick 5th, and a 38% chance that we pick in the top 3. There's a 10% chance that we stay at #4, and 17% that we pick 6th/7th.


so:
Chance that we move up: 38.11%
Chance that we stay at #4: 10.00%
Chance that we move down: 51.89%

From the '95-'96 season through the '02-'03 season, here is what happened for each team that was slotted #4 overall before the lottery:
- 1 team remained at #4 (MIL, '96)
- 1 team moved up to #2 (VAN, '00)
- 1 team moved down to #6 (VAN, '01)
- 5 teams moved down to #5


So looking at that history, combined with a >50% chance of moving down . . . don't be too upset if we end up picking 5th overall.
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» Fri Apr 16, 2010 3:55 pm
D4rk 0ne wrote:Mathematically speaking (i.e. based on all possible permutations and combinations) the chance that we actually pick 4th is relatively low. There is about a 35% chance that we pick 5th, and a 38% chance that we pick in the top 3. There's a 10% chance that we stay at #4, and 17% that we pick 6th/7th.


so:
Chance that we move up: 38.11%
Chance that we stay at #4: 10.00%
Chance that we move down: 51.89%

From the '95-'96 season through the '02-'03 season, here is what happened for each team that was slotted #4 overall before the lottery:
- 1 team remained at #4 (MIL, '96)
- 1 team moved up to #2 (VAN, '00)
- 1 team moved down to #6 (VAN, '01)
- 5 teams moved down to #5


So looking at that history, combined with a >50% chance of moving down . . . don't be too upset if we end up picking 5th overall.


thanks for that Dark. Probability math is WAY too complex for me but I think your statistics are based on the "normal" amount of ping pong balls a 4th seed would have. We have less than normal because of the tie.

but I think those numbers are VERY close to reality. Odds are we wont stay at 4. Hopefully we move up but if we move down then hopefully it will only be one spot. This is why the winning this toss was so very important.
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Posts: 415
» Fri Apr 16, 2010 4:15 pm
bada wrote:
D4rk 0ne wrote:Mathematically speaking (i.e. based on all possible permutations and combinations) the chance that we actually pick 4th is relatively low. There is about a 35% chance that we pick 5th, and a 38% chance that we pick in the top 3. There's a 10% chance that we stay at #4, and 17% that we pick 6th/7th.


so:
Chance that we move up: 38.11%
Chance that we stay at #4: 10.00%
Chance that we move down: 51.89%

From the '95-'96 season through the '02-'03 season, here is what happened for each team that was slotted #4 overall before the lottery:
- 1 team remained at #4 (MIL, '96)
- 1 team moved up to #2 (VAN, '00)
- 1 team moved down to #6 (VAN, '01)
- 5 teams moved down to #5


So looking at that history, combined with a >50% chance of moving down . . . don't be too upset if we end up picking 5th overall.


thanks for that Dark. Probability math is WAY too complex for me but I think your statistics are based on the "normal" amount of ping pong balls a 4th seed would have. We have less than normal because of the tie.

but I think those numbers are VERY close to reality. Odds are we wont stay at 4. Hopefully we move up but if we move down then hopefully it will only be one spot. This is why the winning this toss was so very important.


Oh yeah, I totally forgot about that. You're right, this is based on the normal amount of balls for a #4 pick, not a tie.
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Posts: 6107
» Fri Apr 16, 2010 4:19 pm
D4rk 0ne wrote:
bada wrote:
D4rk 0ne wrote:Mathematically speaking (i.e. based on all possible permutations and combinations) the chance that we actually pick 4th is relatively low. There is about a 35% chance that we pick 5th, and a 38% chance that we pick in the top 3. There's a 10% chance that we stay at #4, and 17% that we pick 6th/7th.


so:
Chance that we move up: 38.11%
Chance that we stay at #4: 10.00%
Chance that we move down: 51.89%

From the '95-'96 season through the '02-'03 season, here is what happened for each team that was slotted #4 overall before the lottery:
- 1 team remained at #4 (MIL, '96)
- 1 team moved up to #2 (VAN, '00)
- 1 team moved down to #6 (VAN, '01)
- 5 teams moved down to #5


So looking at that history, combined with a >50% chance of moving down . . . don't be too upset if we end up picking 5th overall.


thanks for that Dark. Probability math is WAY too complex for me but I think your statistics are based on the "normal" amount of ping pong balls a 4th seed would have. We have less than normal because of the tie.

but I think those numbers are VERY close to reality. Odds are we wont stay at 4. Hopefully we move up but if we move down then hopefully it will only be one spot. This is why the winning this toss was so very important.


Oh yeah, I totally forgot about that. You're right, this is based on the normal amount of balls for a #4 pick, not a tie.


oh good... could have stuck my foot in my mouth on that one because like I said, probability is way too advanced for me.

But your numbers are very helpful as a guideline as the odds are against us remaining at 4.

The ONLY way we stay at 4 is if ALL three teams ahead of us (NJ, Minn, and Sac) ALL get their numbers drawn. Not likely.

We probably are looking at picking 5th. Although sure would be nice to move into the top 3. Come on Stern, rig this thing in our favor!!!
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All Star
Posts: 3242
» Fri Apr 16, 2010 7:00 pm
bada wrote:according to a twitter by Matt Steinmetz, warriors won the toss and will pick 4th!!!

NICE


awesome. I know it's not a huge difference, but every bit counts!

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Posts: 886
» Sat Apr 17, 2010 9:13 am
Quazza wrote:
bada wrote:according to a twitter by Matt Steinmetz, warriors won the toss and will pick 4th!!!

NICE


awesome. I know it's not a huge difference, but every bit counts!


Good, that's just about the perfect scenario for my dream offseason, the only more ideal pick would be three. But our pick now looks great when thrown into a trade, and at our position there really isn't much to pick from outside of potential (I think?), so trading the pick becomes the ideal scenario.
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Posts: 1396
» Sat Apr 17, 2010 11:22 am
D4rk 0ne wrote:Mathematically speaking (i.e. based on all possible permutations and combinations) the chance that we actually pick 4th is relatively low. There is about a 35% chance that we pick 5th, and a 38% chance that we pick in the top 3. There's a 10% chance that we stay at #4, and 17% that we pick 6th/7th.


so:
Chance that we move up: 38.11%
Chance that we stay at #4: 10.00%
Chance that we move down: 51.89%

From the '95-'96 season through the '02-'03 season, here is what happened for each team that was slotted #4 overall before the lottery:
- 1 team remained at #4 (MIL, '96)
- 1 team moved up to #2 (VAN, '00)
- 1 team moved down to #6 (VAN, '01)
- 5 teams moved down to #5


So looking at that history, combined with a >50% chance of moving down . . . don't be too upset if we end up picking 5th overall.


thanx d4rk...

cant be mad if we pick in the top 5... id be happy with wall, turner, favors, cousins or johnsons... after the top 5, theres a real drop off...
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» Sun Apr 18, 2010 2:20 pm
added a matrix to the original post showing odds for each team for each potential pick
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Posts: 1027
» Sun Apr 18, 2010 3:26 pm
I can just smell the 6th pick in the air :x
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Posts: 3242
» Sun Apr 18, 2010 5:16 pm
had a dream last night in which we won the lottery, and proceeded to pick some dude no one had ever heard of

Vintage Warriors
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» Mon Apr 19, 2010 9:44 am
LilBallerx8 wrote:I can just smell the 6th pick in the air :x


worst case scenario for me. :evil:
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Posts: 6107
» Mon Apr 19, 2010 9:47 am
Quazza wrote:had a dream last night in which we won the lottery, and proceeded to pick some dude no one had ever heard of

Vintage Warriors


that Euro Donatas Motiejunas would make your dream a reality for me. :banghead: :banghead: :banghead:
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Posts: 18315
» Mon Apr 19, 2010 9:58 am
bada wrote:
Quazza wrote:had a dream last night in which we won the lottery, and proceeded to pick some dude no one had ever heard of

Vintage Warriors


that Euro Donatas Motiejunas would make your dream a reality for me. :banghead: :banghead: :banghead:


I thought of him as soon as I read Quazza's post... :wink:

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