a spurs fan's opinion of this year's match up

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 26, 2009 3:54 pm
happened to stumble upon this today. I found it kind of interesting.

My Team Is Better Than Yours: Golden State Warriors Edition

Rikiddo and some other people think Golden State will be a playoff team. I'm very skeptical of this claim. Maybe researching this preview will change my mind though. I do know they had two Anthony's absolutely dominate summer league when they were on the court. Randolph was continually getting double doubles and stuffing stat sheets. Morrow set a record with 42 points.

FSN Season Stats Head to Head

They scored 108.6 points per game. That was the second highest. They gave up 112.3 points per game. That was the worst in the league. The Warriors gave up the 4th most points off turnovers at 18.1 per game.

I love when a team can get to the line, and Golden State was the second best team in the league at free throw attempts. The only problem is that they averaged less than 1 more FTA per game. They were fouling just as much as they were getting fouled. The Spurs are just as bad here though.

Their pace bloats a lot of stats. For example, they are the 11th best rebounding team by total rebounds per game. They are also the worst team in term's of opposition's total rebounding giving up the most offensive boards of any team. They were middle of the road in assists per game, but second to last in opponent's assists per game. All of this adds up to what we all already knew: Golden State had a major problem of playing 150 mph on one end and letting teams get whatever they wanted at whatever pace they wanted on the other.
Last Season's Games

Sat, December 6 Golden State We win 123-88. "Duncan, Spurs hand Warriors ninth straight loss"

* They played 12 players more than 10 minutes each, and only 2 of them finished 50% or higher shooting (B. Wright and A. Randolph off the bench). Maggette led the inefficiency charge with 1 of 10 shooting.
* We shot over 55% led by Finley and Duncan both going 7 of 10. Finley was 3 of 4 for threes.
* 97 of our 123 points are still on the roster. Oberto had 13 of the 26 that are gone.
* We had 35 assists to their 11.
* No starter played more than 22 minutes. Oberto was second on the team with 24. Hill was first with 32 minutes.
* Biggest win of the season, 35 points.

Anthony-randolph-tim-duncan-2009-3-24-23-0-53_medium
An Informal Study in Facial Expressions
Randolph thinks: Duncan is so bad ass, must fight past him with all I have and score....
Duncan thinks: Who the hell does this guy think he is and what the hell does he think he is doing?
via nimg.sulekha.com



Mon, February 2 @ Golden State We win 110-105 in OT. "Spurs make up deficit in fourth, win in OT"

* The two Anthony's get DNP-CD's.
* Capt. Jack scored 33 points and had 11 assists in his crazy 53 minutes of play.
* They shoot slightly better, get more shots, have less turnovers, block more shots, get more steals, but give up 9 more rebounds (3 more offensive) and 16 more FTA's. We finish +13 FTM from the line. Manu was 11 of 12 from the line. They were 12 of 18.
* Duncan and Manu both score 32 points. Duncan adds 15 rebounds and 5 assists.
* 99 of our 110 points are still on the roster. KT had 7 points and 15 rebounds in 27 minutes off the bench.
* We were 12 down with less than 9 minutes to play in the 4th.

Tue, March 24 Golden State We win 107-106. "Spurs hang on for close win after tough losses"

* No Manu.
* The Anthony's score 19 of the G.S. benches' 30 points. Our bench only scores 17 total.
* G.S. gets 8 more offensive boards and 13 more shots. They make one more.
* Duncan gets 21 points on 9 shots in 24 minutes of play. 13 FTA's on 9 FGA's...absolutely disgusting. 4 assists to one turnover as well.
* Parker double doubles with 30 points and 10 assists. He finishes with only 3 turnovers too.
* All 17 points off the bench were scored by players no longer on the roster. Thomas, Gooden, and Bowen each had 4 points. So 90 points are still on the roster.
* Mason hit the game winner. Monta Ellis bricked a 3 pointer that would have given them a 2 point win.

14_spurs_warriors_mar2009_medium
"Jerk, don't you see how much I have to focus on dribbling even without you arabesqueing all over me."
via www.kens5.com



Mon, April 13 @Golden State We win 101-72. "Parker, Duncan help Spurs keep pace with Rockets in Southwest"

* Our last road game of the regular season and our second biggest road win at 29 points.
* No Manu and G.S. was in full end of the season tanking/gone fishing mode. Ellis, Jackson, Maggette, Crawford, Belinelli, and Wright all didn't play due to injuries or DNP-CD's.
* Randolph led G.S. with 24 points, 16 rebounds, 4 assists, and 4 steals.
* 33 points are no longer on our team. Gooden scored 20 points off the bench. He also had 15 rebounds.
* We had 16 more rebounds (6 more offensive) and 10 more assists. We also added +11 FTA's.

Warriors Roster Changes

They drafted one player, Stephen Curry. I watched this guy absolutely take games over in college. He is a game changer and a guy who wants the ball at the end. This is an aside, but this trait was the one thing I liked about Drew Gooden last year. He was never scared of any team's defense and was always calling for the ball. You need guys like this on a team. I'm not sure Golden State doesn't already have 8 or 9 other guys that already feel this way though.... Either way, he is a great player and fits the Golden State system. One of his Draft Express weaknesses is that he isn't quite a 1 and not quite a 2. I don't think that will matter much in G.S.'s offense. They don't play defense so it doesn't matter if he can't guard the opposing 2 guard or not.

Stephen Curry Ultimate Highlight (via tapdancingtommy)

They also traded Jamal Crawford and Marco Belinelli for Acie Law, Speedy Claxton, and Devean George net. Acie Law is an appropriately to underrated talent. I think he has some potential and always seemed like a quality attitude player. Speedy Claxton is a good back up point guard if he gets minutes in Nellie's offense. Same goes for George.

C.J. Watson is unsigned at this point.


The Match-Up

Starters

PG: Tony Parker versus Monta Ellis: Advantage Spurs: Monta Ellis is a serious talent. This match-up is closer than it looks. Both guys are likely to get theirs in this match-up.

SG: Roger Mason versus Stephen Jackson: Advantage Warriors: If Stephen Jackson is on, he is unstoppable. We know this first hand. Mason may fit our system better, but if salaries were equal, I'd much rather have Jackson than Mason on my team. We can debate character issues.

SF: Richard Jefferson versus Corey Maggette: Advantage Spurs: I would probably have put this as a wash before doing my research. Maggette was absolutely horrible against us last season. That was against who, Finley? Bonner? If he comes back healthy, he may be able to pass RJ. There was a time the Spurs FO and some fans (me included) wanted Maggette. That seems like a long time ago now.

PF: Antonio McDyess versus Anthony Randolph: Advantage Warriors: Randolph is an absolutely solid player. He needs to improve on defense but likely won't for Nellie. He showed in Summer League that he was on a different level from his competition if you can even call it that. I think Golden State's playoff hopes lie in a large part in his progression and increased role.

C: Tim Duncan versus Andris Biedrins: Advantage Spurs: This isn't close. Biedrins is a fitting big for their system and is still only 23 after 5 years in the league.

Bench:

Point Guard: Hill vs Claxton and Law: I'm not sure about this one. I hope Hill shows the development and ownership of the backup PG role. Claxton can run the offense and Law is a good developing talent. Curry is added depth at the 1, but I'm listing him at the wing.

Nba_g_hill_randolph_576_medium
I really like this picture, but I get the feeling this doesn't end in points for us. It's just one image but I see 5 Warriors and 2 Spurs. Hill is collapsing the D, but where is the kick out?
via a.espncdn.com



Wings: Manu, Finley, Hairston, and Williams vs Curry, Morrow, Azubuike, and George: For me, this is probably the closest wing match-up we have had. If Curry delivers and Morrow continues his growth like he seems to be, they will be scary. Azubuike is a serious role player. He is the type of player that might be starting on another team and lose every match-up. It is great depth for G.S. to have him off the bench. He is only 25 years old himself.

Front Court: Blair, Mahinmi, Bonner, Haislip, and Ratliff vs Turiaf and Wright: They are incredibly shallow here but play small ball anyways. They will continue to get out-rebounded like crazy next season. Lots of teams will get second chance baskets against them, and Blair should have some awesome games when his size is even less of a factor.

Coaching: Advantage Spurs. They need to bring in Avery as a defensive coach or let him coach one season. Tell him he can't make any trades and needs to focus on defense. Then let Nellie take back over in 2010-11, and the team will be incredible. See Devin Harris in NJ.

5165-spursvsgsw-photo_medium
"Yo, Bonner, stand with your arms up between him and the basket, and Finley, how about you keep him in front of you to begin with!" says Duncan coaching the Spurs to a better team defense. via www.csum.edu



Result: They are a fast paced, run and gun team. We are a methodical team that runs "plays". Yes, we are more equipped than ever to run, but it's not like Golden State. They could steal a game from us if they are on fire and we start missing 3's. These games should be wins though. I have to admit that I am more optimistic about their roster than I was before writing this, but without serious efforts on the glass and on defense, they will always just be a crap-shoot. It wouldn't surprise me if they were 6th in the West. It wouldn't surprise me if they were 12th.


The Schedule

Wed, Nov 25 vs Golden State: Last game of a 4 game home stretch. We will have played 9 home games to 4 road games at this point in the schedule and should be looking pretty solid integrating our new additions.

Wed, Dec 16 @ Golden State: Last game of a 3 game road trip and a SEGABABA (@ Suns first). After the back to back we get 2 days off and then 3 games in a row at home so we can push the stars in this back to back if we need to.

Fri, Mar 19 vs Golden State: On March 12th, we start a road-home back to back. We get two days off then a road-road back to back. We then get one day off and then play this game at home. We then get another day off before heading off for another road-road back to back. Then a day off before the Lakers come to SA. This is a brutal stretch, and this G.S. game is an important one to get some rest if the back to backs prove trying. We definitely don't want Duncan running Golden State's pace for 35+ minutes in this gauntlet.

So that is my Spurs-Warriors preview for next season. Next up is the Toronto Raptors. We are skipping the Knicks until David Lee gets sorted out. In general, the order will be more flexible going forward. I plan on making sure I've written about a team before we play them in preseason. That means the Rockets and Cavs will likely get bumped up. Everyone knows the Cavs going after the Lakers would have been anticlimactic anyways though.
U-Dough, the BAKER®

Play nice you two
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iaENn-7t_hk
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 26, 2009 6:35 pm
I agree with much, but don't think the team will get 6th in West that's for sure. If all went smoothly, yea it would happen, maybe top 5 even, but it won't. The issue of defense is very valid with the team, always has been and it doesn't matter how much talent the players have, you have to play together and play both ends and that is the main reasons the team doesn't win
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migya make the ring fall on ya

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