Festus Ezeli to miss 6-9 months following knee surgery

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 17, 2013 7:30 am
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Festus Ezeli to miss 6-9 months following knee surgery
By Matt Moore | NBA writer
June 13, 2013 7:48 pm ET

Festus Ezeli is out 6-9 months after knee surgery. (USATSI) Festus Ezeli is out 6-9 months after knee surgery.

The Warriors announced Thursday that center Festus Ezeli will miss 6-9 months after knee surgery on Wednesday to "reinforce both the MCL and PCL" in his right knee. From the Warriors:

Golden State Warriors center Festus Ezeli underwent successful surgery yesterday on his right knee, the team announced. The procedure, which was performed by Dr. Neal ElAttrache of the Kerlan-Jobe Clinic in Los Angeles, was necessary to reinforce both the medial collateral ligament and posterior cruciate ligament in Ezeli's right knee. Ezeli suffered a sprained right knee during the club's regular-season finale this season at Portland on April 17. He will begin rehabilitation in the near future and is expected to make a complete recovery. The team's medical staff indicates that recovery time could be a minimum of 6-9 months.

Ezeli, 23, appeared in 78 regular-season games (41 starts) as a rookie this past season, averaging 2.4 points, 4.0 rebounds and 0.95 blocks (4th among NBA rookies) in 14.4 minutes per game. His 41 starts were the most by a Warriors rookie center since Joe Barry Carroll started 80 games in 1980-81 and also marked the second-most starts among NBA rookies this season -- trailing only teammate Harrison Barnes (81).

Originally selected by Golden State with the 30th overall pick of the 2012 NBA Draft, the 6'11” center appeared in 12 playoff games, averaging 2.0 points and 2.5 rebounds in 11.2 minutes per contest.

Ezeli actually contributed significant minutes in the Warriors' playoff run, going from eight minutes per game vs. the Nuggets in the Warriors' first-round upset to 13 minutes per contest in the six-game loss to the Spurs.

Losing Ezeli puts major pressure on veteran center Andrew Bogut to remain healthy, something he's had trouble with this season, and it adds to the value of impending free agent Carl Landry. The Warriors may be scrambling for big men next season, just months removed from a playoff run that looked so promising.
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 17, 2013 8:23 am
I think the thing that hurts me the most is the fact that Ezeli will not be able to work on improving his game this off-season. Ezeli is very serviceable, especially on this team because he rebounds and defends, but if he doesn't improve he can work his way out of the rotation similar to Joel Anthony and what happened to him in Miami.
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 17, 2013 9:32 am
Well. The WORST part is what the author brought up: the Warriors are now in a situation where a back-up big man is more valuable than bringing back Jack. You can't assume Bogut will be fully healthy, you just can't. I think he's at that Walton stage of his career, where the only way he gives you 80 games is off the bench at 18 minutes a night. Now that Ezeli is going to miss the beginning of the year (possibly up until the all-star break), finding a backup big is hugely important. I dunno if that big is Landry, per say. Ideally, you want a big who can also play the 5 in the event that Bogut goes tits up for 40 games.

The single greatest difference last year, compared to the lottery bound seasons before it, was the production out of the center spot. Ezeli essentially gave you a Bogut doppelgänger all year long. Now we've got to hypothesize about possibly going long periods of time without EITHER of them.

Any updates on how sturdy Greg Oden's looked at Ohio's open gym? We know he's supposedly rippin it up, but last I heard, a dude with one leg an inch longer than the other is bound to have problems getting hurt all the time. Any other options afoot?
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 17, 2013 9:33 am
Btw, if I hear Biedrins' name uttered by anyone, I'm gonna catch a serious case.
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 17, 2013 9:19 pm
Festus' production is no where near Bogut's. Not really a doppleganger and believe it or not, was much worse on offense than Bogut in this regular season alone.

For winshare and defensiveshare, Bogut was worth more wins in 40 games than Festus was in 78.

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 17, 2013 9:21 pm
32 wrote:Btw, if I hear Biedrins' name uttered by anyone, I'm gonna catch a serious case.

:D
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 17, 2013 10:05 pm
Blackfoot wrote:Festus' production is no where near Bogut's. Not really a doppleganger and believe it or not, was much worse on offense than Bogut in this regular season alone.

For winshare and defensiveshare, Bogut was worth more wins in 40 games than Festus was in 78.

Ehhhhh.

The Warriors won 59% of the games Bogut started. They won 56% of the games Ezeli started. That's a difference of 3%, which over the course of an entire 82 game season amounts to the team winning 2.46 less games with Ezeli instead of Bogut. Zero difference to the naked eye.

Obviously, you can dress it up differently, but the bottom line is a nearly identical winning percentage, which I translate as Ezeli filling in for Bogut without missing a beat.
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 17, 2013 10:16 pm
Completely irrelevant. This ignores strength of schedule (Festus was in during a much easier schedule, Bogut's being significantly tougher) and random variation.


Keep in mind. W-L record doesn't predict future W-L records well at all, it's not predictive. The predictive stats have us winning more games over a large sample with Bogut than Festus even if Bogut misses fourty games. Not every 41-41 team is equally as good.

This is even more true for things with smaller samples. Which is what this is.

I like Festus and we will need a back up center now, but he's no where near the player as Bogut, even when Bogut is at 50 percent and playing 50 percent of the games. Which is a statistical fact.
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 17, 2013 10:26 pm
Guess we'll have to take your word for it.

The win-percentage was nearly identical between the two. The rest of the hypothetical jargon isn't worth arguing over cause you can't prove it. The record speaks for itself.
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 17, 2013 10:51 pm
Well, I can prove it.

Here is something I think you might like, personally.

Win Shares Per 48 Minutes
1. LeBron James-MIA .322
2. Kevin Durant-OKC .291
3. Chris Paul-LAC .287
4. Tyson Chandler-NYK .207
5. Tony Parker-SAS .206
6. James Harden-HOU .206
7. Marc Gasol-MEM .197
8. Tiago Splitter-SAS .197
9. Blake Griffin-LAC .196
10. Russell Westbrook-OKC .195
11. Dwyane Wade-MIA .192
12. Tim Duncan-SAS .191
13. Brook Lopez-BRK .191
14. Carmelo Anthony-NYK .184
15. Deron Williams-BRK .184
16. Serge Ibaka-OKC .181
17. Stephen Curry-GSW .180
18. David West-IND .179
19. George Hill-IND .177
20. Chris Bosh-MIA .175

Win Share really does aim to predict winning. Every single player in the top 20 for Win Share per 48 minutes advanced to the second round of the playoffs or made it to game 7. Except Harden, Griffin, and Paul.

Now for this. Winshare is different from WS/48, but still predictive.

"For the 2008-09 Cavaliers the sum of player Win Shares is 67.9, while the team win total is 66, an error of 66 - 67.9 = -1.9 wins"

The average margin of error is 2.74 games, since basketball games aren't split, it's three games.
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2013 5:45 am
32 wrote:Btw, if I hear Biedrins' name uttered by anyone, I'm gonna catch a serious case.


Ha ha. +1. I was thinking the same thing as soon as I read the 1st post.

Unlike the author of the original article, I think Ezeli's injury lessons Landry's value. Landry is ok to slot into the starting lineup with Lee every now and then, when the matchup suits us, but I wouldn't want to rely on that pairing for an extended period in the season if Bogut breaks down. I'd be targeting one of the following for our backup bigman position who can also slot in as the starting centre if required -

Samuel Dalembert
Chris Anderson
Ryan Hollins

and perhaps even Kenyon Martin
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2013 9:23 am
Ringo wrote:
32 wrote:Btw, if I hear Biedrins' name uttered by anyone, I'm gonna catch a serious case.


Ha ha. +1. I was thinking the same thing as soon as I read the 1st post.

Unlike the author of the original article, I think Ezeli's injury lessons Landry's value. Landry is ok to slot into the starting lineup with Lee every now and then, when the matchup suits us, but I wouldn't want to rely on that pairing for an extended period in the season if Bogut breaks down. I'd be targeting one of the following for our backup bigman position who can also slot in as the starting centre if required -

Samuel Dalembert
Chris Anderson
Ryan Hollins

and perhaps even Kenyon Martin

I think Birdman stays in Miami, Kenyon stays in NY.

Can't see Dalembert taking an MLE... Maybe if the market thins out, but he's a terrific shot-blocker and he's a hair from standing 7-feet. There's usually a team out there that can give that guy starter's money. I'd be stoked to pick him up.

Hollins is serviceable, but seems to pick up fouls at a similar rate as Biedrins. I think it's more likely the team will look at D-League or super cheap options, pray Bogut holds up, and run Lee at center for lots of minutes early in the year. Seems more likely than paying a 4th center to come pick up the slack left by Biedrins, a likely injured Bogut, and an injured Ezeli. Kinda like a few seasons back when Chris Hunter gave us solid minutes at the 5-spot for limited minutes.
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2013 10:25 am
And, BF, when I say you can't prove it, I mean hypothetical stats don't always materialize.

Case in point: according to win shares last year, the team should have won games drastically better with Bogut starting than Ezeli. Reality was, they didn't. Their win percentages as starting centers were nearly identical. You can plead your case however you want, but the bottom line was 59 to 56 percent.
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2013 11:52 am
32, small samples are completely useless when judging who plays better, especially when you are using them for completely different teams that they faced.

In no world was Festus a doppleganger to Bogut. Bogut was much better. Being "hypothetical" doesn't mean anything because it has one of the strongest correlation to future W-L records. W-L records don't predict future because it ignores strength of schedule and luck. And the only way you should be using that is in large aggregate samples.
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 19, 2013 7:57 am
An entire season is a small sample?!? [-X

I'm not saying Ezeli is better than Bogut, I'm not saying that a fully healthy Bogut doesn't yield more wins, I'm saying CHECK THE RECORDS from last year. You can list as many stats as you want about how sh*t SHOULD have played out, I'm simply talking about how it ACTUALLY played out.
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