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PostPosted: Mon May 27, 2013 7:07 pm
To be fair, WSU, Rudy Gay is exactly the type of player Blackfoot is on record as not respecting. Gay is Monta Ellis with 5 extra inches. Instead of passing stats, he gets decent rebounding numbers and plays above-average man to man defense. In my experience with Blackfoot, players who can initiate offense mean little to him if they don't put up efficient true shooting numbers... And Gay, to be fair, is a volume shooter.

I like Rudy Gay. Players who can establish their own offense and get their own shot have value, even if advanced stats don't do them justice. I agree with you that an extra option, like Gay, would definitely help the Grizzlies right now, although the degree is unknown since Leonard would likely do a fabulous job defending him. But the fact that Rudy Gay has a high usage rate with low TS% is a major red flag to BF.

I'm with you; the Grizz dealt Gay for salary reasons, not because they improved talent-wise. But the real showing of Gay's value will become apparent when the Raptors can plug him into their system for a full year. Until then, BF will not agree to give Gay any credit so this argument is pointless. Hell, BF didn't even give Monta love for dragging the Bucks to the post-season, so who knows whether or not he'll ever agree that Gay is an asset. IMO, if the Warriors can turn Harrison Barnes into more of a slasher/finisher like Gay, while maintaining his good 3-point shooting, that would be a major addition to our club. I was calling for a Barnes & Landry swap for Gay midseason. The Warriors need a lock down wing defender like Gay and they severely lack a slashing option at the present.
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PostPosted: Mon May 27, 2013 11:04 pm
I believe the ability to create your own shot is useful and I would not knock a player for having that ability. I just find that most players who have that ability aren't good at it and get by with gaudy PPG.

Guys like Kobe and Melo are great shot creators and they do it efficiently.

Gay used to be good at it and I don't want to talk about all my feelings on Rudy, but he has now gotten worse three years in a row, something that you can't ignore when evaluating. Three years ago, he was a player I wanted to build around, but with a steady decline, those are red flags and you are right when I think of him as an offense Monta Ellis, but he rebounds and plays defense which is a nice thing to have in a player. I think he has a high ceiling, but I think he is squandering it by being an inefficient ball hog who almost never takes the best shot the team can get.
Last edited by Blackfoot on Mon May 27, 2013 11:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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PostPosted: Mon May 27, 2013 11:25 pm
I understand. I viewed the acquisition of players like Gay and Iguodala as win-win for both player and team because those guys would have to adapt to being 3rd options behind Curry and Lee if they were traded here. Less attempts for Gay and less attention on Iggy would make them both more dangerous players. Like Ellis, Gay is not at his best when he's a #1 option. Which is why I thought the emergence of Conley as an offensive force made Memphis a better fit for Gay than in years past, where Conley was undeveloped and/or ZBo was hurt.
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PostPosted: Tue May 28, 2013 7:13 am
It has been said and reasons given why - The Grizz are much better without Gay and like Monta, Gay is a negative to a team.
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PostPosted: Tue May 28, 2013 9:36 am
Well, it's definitely not that simple. Both of those guys spent the majority of their careers on God-awful rosters. Rudy Gay may not be a #1 option - he's definitely overpaid - and he'll shoot you out of games if you give him more than 20 looks a night. But he's immensely better inside of the 3-point line; in fact, if he played a little more like Ellis and only took corner 3's, I think his TS% would rise significantly. You'd also like him to knock down at least 80% from the line. But he's a good defender, he's definitely versatile, his handles for a 6'8" guy are excellent, and he rebounds the ball well.

Ideally, in the perfect offense, you want a PG who can drive-and-kick and knock down the open 3, you want a SG whose TS% is high and can get his own shot, your power forward should have both a midrange and a post game, your center should be a back-to-the-basket scorer who finishes everything in close at around 80%, and your small forward should be able to do a little bit of everything. Rudy Gay can do a little bit of everything. So you can't call him a born loser.

On our squad, Gay would have pushed us past the Spurs. Why?

Well let's assume Myers gave the Barnes-Jack-Jefferson trade for Gay a green light. Suddenly, the Spurs can't use Parker to guard a forward. Gay would demolish him. So you'd need to put Leonard on him, which puts Ginobli back on Thompson and now Klay can get going again. The 5 most likely on the floor would be Curry, Thompson, Gay, Bogut, and either Green or Landry. Big scorers are more valuable than little scorers because fewer players can guard them. Barnes looked great against the Spurs lack of respect. Rudy Gay would have looked dominant. Plus, it gives you an extra defender all series long (including in Game 1 when Thompson fouled out). If Jackson employs Gay as a swingman in isolation, Curry and Thompson get more open shots (yes, I know Gay is a below average passer, but he's had double-digit assist games playing many games without anybody who could stretch the floor - as I stated earlier, Conley literally broke out these past 2 years, before that Gay was the main gunner from deep, which he's not comfortable with).

This is all pie in the sky, but it's an example of how good players thrive on good team's. It wasn't so long ago these "natural born loser" claims were being lobbied at David Lee. Rudy Gay on any number of these playoff team's (Indiana, Miami, Golden State, either LA, Chicago, San Antonio, and yes even Memphis) is an asset.
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PostPosted: Tue May 28, 2013 9:40 am
And I've said it MANY times: Monta Ellis, as a 6th man, is the best sub in the game. He's instant offense and doesn't need to start to get going. If he were in a Ginobli or JR Smith or Jamal Crawford or Jarrett Jack role, Monta Ellis averages 18 and 5 in 32 minutes as a sub.

Imagine how many people would ride his nuts if he were on the Knicks. Just saying.
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PostPosted: Tue May 28, 2013 9:52 am
Monta Ellis could potentially be more efficient in a sixth man role and if he plays within an offense. But his defensive liability is still a big problem. He's the fifth worst defensive player in the league, basically.

As for Gay, I don't think he would have pushed us past the Spurs. Spurs would have goaded him into low percentage shots (he loves those shots) and we would have lost Barnes production, which I think is better than a hypothetical Gay.

I also don't think we would have beaten the Nuggets with Gay.
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PostPosted: Tue May 28, 2013 10:06 am
Good point on the Denver series; Jack was definitely big... Although Gay could have guarded Miller much better than Green. We'll never know, but it's a good point.

But, as far as round 2, how do the Spurs goad Gay into outside jumpers with Tony Parker guarding him? I don't believe they could; Gay has a post-game (we saw him use it against Ellis in previous years). The Spurs would have to put Leonard on him, which flips Thompson back on. It's a pick-your-poison; Parker has to guard somebody. Either its Thompson, who abuses him, Gay, who pounds him inside, or Curry, who drops 40 against PG single-coverage. Or you take Parker out of the game... Which you can't, cause he single-handedly beat us in the series.

If you convince Gay to play within the system, like we're hypothesizing with Ellis, he becomes a huge asset. You can take the position that he wouldn't buy in, based on his history, but if Jackson is the coach you and I both believe he is, I think he could get through to Rudy Gay. "Cut to the hoop, post-up on a mismatch, guard the star, and spot open corner 3's. If you can't get a corner trey or a mismatch, send it to Klay or Steph cause one of them will have a better shot."
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PostPosted: Tue May 28, 2013 10:08 am
Btw, +1 to both miggy and BF. Great debate, boys.
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PostPosted: Tue May 28, 2013 10:34 am
And, just food for thought BF -

That Rudy Gay 3-year regression you spoke of effectively ended when he was dealt to a team that had outside shooters to compliment him. PER rose 3 points, back up above his career average (to 17.6, aka far better than Klay Thompson, who was a 12.6 this year, reflecting his sophomore slump - he was a 14.9 last year). Gay's TS% also rose above 50% in Toronto (.513... Still below his .525 career average). Thompson - widely regarded as one of the premiere NBA gunners - was .535 this year. Plus, Gay's rebounding percentage bumped up to 11% (terrific for a SF; LeBron's career Reb% is 10.8). His defensive rating still wasn't there; as he went from a 101 up to a 105 outside of Toronto, but still topped Thompson (107, whom you have said was Golden State's best wing defender). I'm sure the adjusted ratings show more love for Thompson given the Warriors pace, but I don't have a good source for that... Any suggestions? <I'm not gonna pay for synergy, just as a heads up>

Anyways, I'm not dinging Thompson; I love the guy a lot, I'm just using him as a comparison because he's a good player and I believe Gay's numbers as a Raptor prove that he is too.
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PostPosted: Thu May 30, 2013 7:33 am
I'm just so happy we got Barnes. He really has it all and will only improve in every facet. He is built well and likely will add another ten pounds at least on his already strong frame, allowing him to post up even better. He is on his rookie contract for a few more years yet as well. Such a big addition he is and to me, our SF for a long time.
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PostPosted: Thu May 30, 2013 9:33 am
If Barnes learns to handle, he's a star. He'd be more apt to take initiative if he could create his own shot. This year proved, he needed a mismatch to score. He can't go left at all and he's not average going right either. As it stands, he's a spotter and a finisher. Give him a decent set of handles and suddenly he's the team's best overall scorer. If Barnes could handle the ball like Thompson, he'd be a better player than him. No question.
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PostPosted: Fri May 31, 2013 10:17 pm
Interesting, as I saw a few games earlier in the season where Barnes was brining the ball up court and distributing. He seemes to have much better handles than he did in college.
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 10, 2013 7:46 am
32 wrote:To be fair, WSU, Rudy Gay is exactly the type of player Blackfoot is on record as not respecting. Gay is Monta Ellis with 5 extra inches. Instead of passing stats, he gets decent rebounding numbers and plays above-average man to man defense. In my experience with Blackfoot, players who can initiate offense mean little to him if they don't put up efficient true shooting numbers... And Gay, to be fair, is a volume shooter.

I like Rudy Gay. Players who can establish their own offense and get their own shot have value, even if advanced stats don't do them justice. I agree with you that an extra option, like Gay, would definitely help the Grizzlies right now, although the degree is unknown since Leonard would likely do a fabulous job defending him. But the fact that Rudy Gay has a high usage rate with low TS% is a major red flag to BF.

I'm with you; the Grizz dealt Gay for salary reasons, not because they improved talent-wise.
But the real showing of Gay's value will become apparent when the Raptors can plug him into their system for a full year. Until then, BF will not agree to give Gay any credit so this argument is pointless. Hell, BF didn't even give Monta love for dragging the Bucks to the post-season, so who knows whether or not he'll ever agree that Gay is an asset. IMO, if the Warriors can turn Harrison Barnes into more of a slasher/finisher like Gay, while maintaining his good 3-point shooting, that would be a major addition to our club. I was calling for a Barnes & Landry swap for Gay midseason. The Warriors need a lock down wing defender like Gay and they severely lack a slashing option at the present.


That is the main point, in the long run, they need a constistent scorer plain and simple. They don't have that now, if you shut down their post game, then you got them, (easier said than done of course). Prince is not the answer, neither is Daye, Pondexter had a decent enough series so maybe him or some free agent, but they need another consistent scorer on the wing to balance them out.

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 10, 2013 1:21 pm
Rudy ISN'T a consistent scorer so the point is moot. Would have not beat the Clippers with him, as evident of last year first round bout.
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