What I Learned From NuggetsTalk

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 2:56 pm
The following is a reenactment of my experience observing the Denver Nuggets fan in their natural cyberspastic habitat. I put forward several broad concepts with a purely interested perspective in play. I was genuinely curious as to the nature of these fans’ rumblings and gathered data over the course of the first 3 games before finally tapping out, my patience spent and my brain throbbing. We exchanged views on various subjects regarding the (then, upcoming and, to date now, 3-1) playoff series between the Golden State Warriors and the Denver Nuggets.

I warn you, gentlemen: the level of psychosis at work amidst these Midwestern hillbillies is at a fever pitch and those who are troubled by severe disconnections from reality may want to turn their heads from this thread. Not recommended for women or children. Without further adu, my research:


SERIES PREDICTIONS

32: Greetings, Nuggets fans. I am a Bay Area resident and hardcore Warriors fan interested in hearing your perspective on this series. I’m hoping for intelligent debate and worthwhile discussion. Firstly, I think it’s important to ground our claims regarding this subject and I think right off the bat, I should note that while I’m a die-hard Warriors fan, I also respect the accomplishments of the Nuggets this year and therefore believe that they will take the series in 5 games, although my heart says Warriors in 6.
Nuggets Talk: Wrong, troll! ROFLMAO! The Nuggets are gonna stomp the Warriors!!! Nuggets in 5 at the MOST; we’ll probably sweep you guys!! LOL!!
Reality: 5 games into the series, Golden State leads 3-1, with 2 convincing victories in Games 2 and 4. While the first-round matchup is in no way over, Nuggets fans thinking that this series wouldn’t last more than 5 games (with their team advancing to the next round) have been sorely mistaken.

ODDS FOR AN UPSET

32: Be careful, Nuggets’ fans! Remember: upsets can happen in the first round. I’m sure I don’t need to remind anyone of the Nuggets’ victory in ’94 or the “We Believe” Warriors run…
NT: LMAO, I reeeeally dunno what Denver in 1994 or Golden State in 2007 has to do with TODAY, LOL! That’s ancient history!!
Reality: Yes. And history repeats itself. If the Nuggets had watched any tape on Golden State in 2007, they would have noticed that Don Nelson opened the series up with Al Harrington at center while Monta Ellis took Andris Biedrins’ usual starting spot. To counter, Mavericks coach, Avery Johnson, pulled one of the biggest basketball no-no’s in the world: he sent a small lineup back at Nellie, effectively abandoning his game plan and allowing Golden State to dictate the rhythm of the series. Dallas was bounced in 6 games. Fast-forward to 2013 and you’ll find Mark Jackson pulling a similar stunt following David Lee’s injury: instead of staying big, Mark Jackson went small with Jarrett Jack and rather than play his usual lineup with Kosta Koufus starting at center, veteran coach George Karl has gone to a small lineup with Kenneth Faried at center and totally got sucked into Mark Jackson’s game plan, where the Warriors have stolen the series momentum AND the home court advantage. History repeats: that’s why regard for past upsets aren’t irrelevant.

BEST PLAYER IN THE SERIES

32: Okay, next topic: while I respect your team as the deeper roster with the more experienced coach, I think the x-factors in play are David Lee and Stephen Curry. Let’s be honest here; while the Nuggets are certainly deeper in a 10-man lineup, the Warriors possess the two best players in the series, and if Curry gets hot, there’s really no stopping him. Am I wrong?
NT: Of course you are!! LOL! First of all, Curry and Iggy are a close match for best player in the series… I’d personally take Iggy because of his defense!! He has the INTANGIBLES and checks EVERY level of NBA star, from LeBron to Durant to Carmelo! Curry won’t do sh*t against him!! LOL, and secondly, David Lee isn’t even in the top 5 of these two rosters!! LOL!!
Reality: Wrong. Dead wrong, Nuggets fans. The Warriors are up 3-1 entirely because of Steph Curry. Discounting the Game 1 loss, Curry has averaged 30.0 points and 10.3 assists with 14 total three-pointers on 50% from the arc between Games 2-4. Andre Iguodala, Denver’s proposed equal to Curry, not only lacks the offensive statistics to stand up to SC30, but defensively, Curry has been his assignment every second they are on the floor together. In essence: Curry is pouring these video games numbers on Iguodala. As far as David Lee is concerned, we’ll never know how his series might have shaped out, but Lee was an NBA all-star this season… an accomplishment no Denver player achieved in 2013.

SLOWING DOWN DLEE

32: I view Lee as a mismatch in Game 1 without Faried. Really, he attacks bigger, slower defenders – like Koufus and McGee – so the only chance Denver has is to throw a SF at him, like Wilson Chandler… and, even then, Lee has averaged 25 points per game against the Nuggets this year. How do you folks see your team slowing him down?
NT: LOL, please!! David Lee is gonna get SHUT DOWN by Wilson Chandler!! Chandler is no slouch defensively; if Iggy is our best defender, than Chandler is 1B!
Reality: You gotta hand it to the Nuggets fans on this one: Chandler took Lee from the outset and while you could argue semantics (like Lee’s nerves in his first playoff game… or the fact that he was uncharacteristically forcing shots early in the shot-clock), the fact remains that Wilson Chandler knocked Lee off his game in the opening contest. He still got his boards, he still put up a double-double, but Chandler held him to under 50% shooting, which is an off-night for Lee. Well played, Denver.

CURRY VS LAWSON

32: So, considering that these teams are both led, offensively, by their point guards, does it make a difference that Curry is a better player than La…
NT: BLASPHEMY!!! HEARSAY!!! RUMOR!!!! SLANDER!!! HOW DAAAARE you even speak such a blatant farce here!! Ty Lawson led his team to 10 more wins than Steph Curry did!! It’s obvious!!!… Just subtract October and November off the season and BAM, Ty Lawson’s numbers become comparable to Curry’s!! Lawson > Curry!!! (*plugs ears and starts stomping in circles*)
Reality: This one was just plain hilarious. I rolled out allllll the numbers for them; the traditional stat-line (where Curry dominates everything), the advanced stats (where Curry tops in wins-added, TS%, and turnover-ratio, while putting up a similar assists-ratio with a higher usage rate), and I literally drew them a picture with PER: the difference between JaVale McGee and James Harden is 2.22 in terms of PER. Curry is over 3 points higher than Lawson. It’s a ridiculous skunking that even the most jaded of fans should be able to see… and still, to the death, Denver fans refused to acknowledge the fact that Curry was the better player. Their argument hinged upon throwing out the first month and a half of the season (seriously) and even then, the best they could do was claim that the numbers were “comparable,” not superior. Hopefully, this series sheds some light on them as to what’s really going on in the NBA.

SERIES OFFICIATING

NT: GOD, these refs are AWFUL!!! We TOTALLY GOT SCREWED in Game 1!!!
32: First of all, you won the game, so why are you complaining. Secondly, Denver took 10 more free throws than the Warriors did, soooo… how exactly do you figure the fix was in?
NT: Troll!!!! Troll!!!! Troll!!! You probably cried when Monta was traded, huh?!? Huh?!? Troll!!!!!
Reality: It was about here in the conversation that I made my way out of that sh*t hole. I had high hopes for these fans as competent members of basketball society, but after a thorough examination of their homer antics and constant spin-doctor-history, while denying basketball facts and cold hard numbers, I have decided that Denver is not yet ready for intelligent basketball discussion. Better luck next year, Nuggets fans.

Overall, the Nuggets fans proved they were competent in 1 of 6 total subjects. And, as a courtesy to them, I didn't even include our mini debate regarding Golden State's ability to hit 3's versus Denver's historic points-in-the-paint season. Who do you think has won that debate thus far, btw? :mrgreen:
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 5:56 pm
Lol. You tried to look for rational basketball opinion over the internet. You're funny, 32.

In their defense, though, almost NO ONE picked the Warriors to win this series. In terms of bball analysts, the only person I know who picked the warriors to win at all was Skip Bayless. I myself did not think we were going to win because of Denver's strong home record. I lost a bet and I have to buy one of my buddies some NBA warrior shorts. Lol

I myself believe that Denver got the short end of the stick in game 1 an 2 in terms of officiating, but at some point you have to pony up and just accept that we're consistently outplaying you. The consensus is that we're outcoaching George Karl, and he has no answer on offense for neither ours or theirs.

Let's slow down a bit too. I know we have an overwhelming lead, but lets not celebrate just yet. I want to get this last win before I go ape ****. I really wouldn't be surprised if we won tomorrow; we're a +8 underdog though.
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 8:26 pm
Dude. I'm celebrating.

I would have NEVER guessed the Dubs would have 3 wins before the series. Like Blackfoot said before the playoffs began, I was just looking for a tough, competitive series. In that sense, I'm already in celebratory mode cause the Warriors have ensured a Game 7 in an absolutely worst case scenario.

If they win the series, I'll go into anaphylactic shock from the joy. My guard isn't down; I'm still not taking a series victory for granted. Denver's too talented. But DAMN it's been every bit the series I could have hoped for and that is worth celebrating.
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 9:09 pm
I feel you, bro. It's surreal to me to be honest. I genuinely thought we were going to be demolished ESPECIALLY since Lee went down, which begs the question: does this make Lee expendable? Right now, I'd say yes, and I jsut bought dude's all star jersey. Lol.
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 10:16 pm
I been biting my tongue with that question the past couple days...

My Lee fandom aside, I feel like a couple things prevent this from being the expendable case that you suggest:

1, Bogut's health. If Bogut goes down next year, you need Lee to be the big option for when Curry gets blitzed. Bogut feasted on the lack of coverage yesterday and Lee could easily do the same, both as a passer and a finisher.

2, George Karl is returning serve with a small lineup to match our tiny squad. If the Dubs eliminate Denver, I'll guarantee you one thing: Greg Popovich will NOT play Mark Jackson's gimmicky, Nellie-ish game. I credit the success of this lineup to Karl's airhead adjustment more than Harrison Barnes ability to play power forward. Which brings me to the whammy:

3, Nellieball does not work. It's been proven. A stretch 4 can work in 2 situations: off-the-bench as a change-up or playing alongside a dominant big man who eats up one-on-one coverage inside (Dwight Howard, Andrew Bynum, DeMarcus Cousins, etc). So long as Andrew Bogut stumbles as a reliable low-post scorer, teams won't have any reason to double team him. Sure, Bogut has been monstrous as a finisher or tip-player on the o-glass, but our stretch 4 gimmick won't work (again) against San Antonio, who can throw Duncan at Bogut and let everyone else hang around the perimeter to put a hand up in a shooter's face. The elite teams (Oklahoma City, LAC, Memphis, Chicago, Boston) have bigs who can defend low-post scorers in single coverage. Without Bogut yesterday, posterizing McGee and forcing Karl to stop blitzing Curry because Andrew was making them pay with easy dunks), Denver's trap coverage can frustrate Nellieball.

So, no, I don't think this makes Lee expendable. As great as this offense is when they feed Curry's hot hand, Steph gets flustered by physical coverage from multiple defenders who crash him from half-court to the three-point line. That's been the book on him since the MSG debacle. For Curry to keep getting open looks, the defense has to clench back into the paint to cover inside scorers. Bogut made it happen yesterday, but Lee is easily twice the offensive option that Bogut is.

Besides, who would you get for Lee? You have 3 young wings that are set for years... and you have an enforcer at center. If you dish Lee, it'd likely be for another PF... and unless you wanna swap him for a stretch 4 (like Ryan Anderson, which is hilarious underpayment for Lee), any potential deal is redundant and can only detract from the roster seeing as Lee has been a terrific player for us. On a squad full of shooters, Lee's rebounding, ball movement, and inside scoring prowess provide a premium product that we can't afford to lose. The San Antonio series will make the loss of Lee look a whole lot worse. And, honestly, if Denver starts Koufas/McGee with Faried tomorrow... it's gonna shake our rhythm behind the arc. Faried can stay with Barnes. Once Karl figures that out, we'll need a new plan to keep winning.
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 11:22 pm
Can't name any players right now, but in theory, I want someone who has 3/5 of Lee's offensive abilities without having the defensive liabilities.

Just speculation. For all i know that formula can be a disaster. I really wouldn't mind keeping Lee. Him and a healthy Bogut is something else that can propels us into the top 4 seed next year.
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 11:45 pm
Lee may not be the 3-point threat that Barnes is, but he's more of a "stretch" 4 than your average Joe. Feed him open 15-footers on the baseline from drive-and-kicks and he'll feast all night long. If need be, you can play this frenetic, fast-paced offense with Lee AND Bogut. Bogut sets the picks, Lee hangs in the corner ready for midrange pops and cuts to the rim.

But when you run into a San Antonio or a Memphis, you'll be glad you have a low-post passer like Lee to run the option through. Run and gun teams like OKC and Miami are becoming the norm; every squad can sub in their 3rd guard for their PF and run now. It's the smashmouth squads with dominant big men who have premium talent. Not every team can feed the ball in low to either Lee or Bogut at point-blank range.

A fully healthy season for Bogut makes this team 50+ wins, easy.
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PostPosted: Thu May 02, 2013 10:24 pm
What are they saying now 32?
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PostPosted: Thu May 02, 2013 11:23 pm
Ringo wrote:What are they saying now 32?

"WAAAAAAH!!! Refs screwed us!!!"

"WAAAAAAHH!!!! It's all Karl's fault!!"

"WAAAAAAHHHH!!! They got lucky!!!!"

:mrgreen:
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PostPosted: Fri May 03, 2013 12:07 am
I will agree with the Karl thing.
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PostPosted: Sat May 04, 2013 5:37 pm
So I'm on reddit.com a lot and I subscribe to a warriors forum, if you will. One of the users were asking what good forums were out there and this is what one of the users had to say

http://www.goldenstatewarriors-rt.com/ - Pretty small, but active core group of members. Very insightful discussions and dedicated fans. Great feeling of community because it's so tight-knit.
http://www.goldenstwarriors.com/ - Larger forum (actually, the previously posted link was created by a splinter group of mods from this second forum). Personally, I feel like the discussions here aren't as interesting/insightful, but it's a bit more active.
I've never read the forums at GSOM so I can't comment there. Tend to avoid RealGM as well, but sometimes they're talking about things that I don't see in other Warriors forums, so it's worth checking at least occasionally.
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PostPosted: Sat May 04, 2013 5:37 pm
Im sad that people don't think we're insightful. Lol
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PostPosted: Sat May 04, 2013 7:23 pm
Well let's become insightful.

I'm not here as often as I used to because I'm so busy, but at least I look at every active thread and post in most. We should be talking about the playoffs pretty in depth. Noone but one other member posted their playoff predictions and only one other member is discussing playoffs in the other thread. More activity would be better.
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PostPosted: Sat May 04, 2013 10:41 pm
I seriously can not comprehend how people go to warriors world. The lay out is crazy stupid.
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PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2013 2:14 am
I don't write a lot lately, but there are few guys here that are discussing on every single subject about the Warriors, and those are really nice posts. I don't see how that over there is more insightful, when it's pretty much few guys that are writing everything, and are repeating themselves, cause there aren't a lot of people to add to that. And it doesn't look insightful when they change the subject to something only known to them, non regarding the Warriors. That's the main reason it's a small community.

But, I guess to each his own.

And about that warriors world thing you mentioned, I don't know either. It's not enjoyable when it's so chaotic, get lost in there. Probably RealGM and that is the easiest thing for people to find, and they are mot keen too much on searching a bit more.
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