Playoff Worst Case Scenario Here For Our Dubs.

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PostPosted: Sun Apr 14, 2013 7:26 pm
Not only did the screw job in LA cost Dubs the game is also cost them the 6th seed it appears. With S.A. still in reach of the #1 seed it is not likely the Warriors win that game given their putrid history vs. that team. '

Dubs will now have to face SA or OKC and that is not a good thing. Thanks NBA!
This season is not a flop.
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 14, 2013 7:45 pm
I really liked our chances facing Clips or Nugs in the 1st round...
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 14, 2013 8:35 pm
UPSET CITY

Championship here we come
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 17, 2013 4:29 am
Looks like 6th seed is ours. Reckon it'll be Denver and I'd be happy winning two games, but to go to seven would awesome. If Faried is out for the 1st round, I reckon our bigs, with a healthy Bogut that is, will out do theirs and then it'd be a big chance we win that series.
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migya make the ring fall on ya
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 17, 2013 10:28 am
Blackfoot wrote:UPSET CITY

Championship here we come

Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but are you just content to end the season in the first round? You have zero aspirations for a potential upset from our club?
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 17, 2013 2:23 pm
Just make it a competitive series and I will be happy. I hope for the upset.

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 17, 2013 4:14 pm
Here is someone's take that I basically completely agree with

The Golden State Warriors

Key Offensive Stats: 3PT% 40.2% (1st), 3PT Rate 24.0 (14th), TO Rate 14.15 (22nd), FT% 79% (3rd), RIM A/Game 22.1 (29th),

Analysis: Although Golden State is by far the most accurate 3PT shooting team in the league, they are a fairly discerning team: they are usually between 10-15th in 3PT Attempts/Game, while teams like New York and Houston jack up far more 3s/Game. This is part of why they are the deadliest outside shooters in the league – their main 3PT shooters (Curry and Thompson, who take 14 3s per game between them) can drive and dish, finish at the rim and make mid-range pull-ups. So unlike their elite 3PT shooting peers like Kyle Korver, Ray Allen, or Steve Novak – staying home on them isn’t enough. Curry, for example, will often dribble into quick-release pull up 3s on fast breaks, and he’s a good enough driver that defenders can’t do much about it but hope he misses.

Let’s talk about Curry’s historic season for a minute here. Most people know he’s two made 3s away from setting the all-time record for made 3s in a season (269 set by Ray Allen in 05-06). What you may not know is he’s going to set it on about 60 fewer shots than it took Allen – who shot 369-for-653 that year (41.2%) – Curry is currently 268-for-589 – an absurd 45.5% shooting. He shoots so well from 3 that it actually raises his overall FG%.

The only other player to ever make 200 3s on 45%+ in a season was Glen Rice in 96-97, who went a sizzling 207-440 (47%) , but on 140 fewer shots, even that’s not as impressive. Basically, even if this guy doesn’t get the record, he has recorded the deadliest volume 3PT shooting season in NBA history. If it feels like he’s had more of those “Well, we’re f—cked” nights (where he just pulls up and swishes 3s over and over) than anyone else in the NBA, you’d be right – there’ve been 50 games this season where a player has hit 7 or more 3s in a game, and Curry has had 8 of those games (next closest: Ryan Anderson with 4, Melo and Danny Green with 3)

He’s been so good the media has almost missed the emergence of Klay Thompson, who, at 40% on 6.4 attempts a game has become an elite outside shooter in his own right.

This team is also one of the best long-2 shooting teams (5th at 40.3%), with a pile of players that can hit there at a respectable clip (Lee, Landry, Curry, Jack, Thompson).

Unfortunately, as brilliant as GSW is from outside, they are bottom of the league in rim attempts/game despite a competent fastbreak (9th in points/game). This team struggles to get shots in the paint in the half court – partly because they are so good from outside that any open outside shot is decent, but also because with Bogut ineffective this year they lack any post threat and are one of the smallest teams in the paint. And while Curry, Thompson and Jack are all decent slashers, none of them can really finish over the top of a well-positioned defense, so most attacks lead to dishes or mid-range floaters. This makes their offense one of the more erratic – capable of going off from 3 and blowing out good teams, but also capable of going cold and relying far too much on 14-18 footers.

Key Defensive Stats: OP 3PT% 34.1% (5th), OP 3PT Shot Rate 27.6 (29th), OP Rim A/Game 23.8 (4th), OP FT Rate 28.4 (23rd), Defensive Play Rate 12.4 (29th), Def Reb.% 75.1% (2nd)

Analysis: Along with San Antonio, Golden State is one of the few teams that is elite at both 3PT shooting and 3PT defense. Interestingly, despite good 3PT defense, they are 29th in the league in opponent 3PT rate, meaning like New York, GSW seems to be good at baiting opponents into getting in 3PT shoot-outs with them, a war GSW wins 90% of the time.

While their interior defenders are undersized and punishable by the rare team with good post-up players, they are among the best box-out/rebounding bigs in the league, rating second in Def. Reb %. This team is also foul prone (23rd), due to a lack of elite wing defenders that can wall off drives without fouling, and due to their size problems inside. They are also relatively poor at fast-break defense (21st).

They also rate at the bottom in the league in defensive play rate – not always a bad thing, but it reflects their lack of size (outside the injured Bogut, Ezeli is the best shot blocker in the rotation at 0.9/game) and their lack of gambling on the perimeter. This is a competitive group of players that lack the athletic gifts to be elite defensively but are nonetheless smart and usually always in the right position. Teams with great slashers and post up players will be able to punish them the most, while other teams that rely on the 3-ball will be broken by them.

Easiest Route to a Championship: Denver->Houston->LA Clippers->Atlanta

Hardest Route to a Championship: Denver->San Antonio->Oklahoma->Miami

Analysis: Golden State is one of those teams no one wants to face – when they get on a roll from outside they can really take the life out of opponents. But at the end of the day they are a flawed team in a bad first round matchup, and it’s extremely unlikely they’ll be able to take Denver at home. This may be the worst matchup in the whole conference for them, as their foul-prone, poor interior and fastbreak defense is going to be cut to ribbons by a relentless attacking Denver team. Denver is also one of the hardest teams in the league to bait into 3PT wars.

If they had their choice, GSW would want to play any of the high 3PT launching-poor 3PT shooting teams in either conference (LAC, HOU, LAL, BRK, ATL, NYK) that rely on offense to win. As soon as they hit one of the favourites they are screwed – as SAS, OKC and MIA can all handle GSW’s outside game, match it, and also generate a lot more easy buckets inside. If GSW had finished 5th they would have a shot at LAC first round, but I don’t think they are getting through Denver.

This team gambled on Bogut and so far they’ve lost that gamble. I still think it was a smart move as they’ve played better just by NOT having Monta on their team, and it could pay off huge if he ever comes back, as a healthy Bogut gives them everything they’re missing. But he hasn’t been healthy in 2 years, so they may be S.O.L. and have to go to plan B next year.
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 20, 2013 1:05 am
Nice info Blackfoot. I still think the team can take Denver if they shoot well and Bogut is healthy to play every game and over 33mins every game. Denver runs, but so do we and with the 3point shot so lethal, it means Denver could get a little demoralised at times in games. I think it will be a series of runs, with both teams offensively potent, but as long as the team rebounds as good as Denver and Lee can give enough offense close enough to the basket, we have a serious chance.

I also think that unless Ezeli can control his fouling and become a bit better shotblocker, the team needs one more shotblocker, like another backup big that can do that. Either that or another player that can play the defense very well. Maybe Rush can be that, but he isn't a backup big. Landry just plays one end unfortunately so it is a hard one whether to keep him if a very good defending yet still pretty good scoring backup PF can be found.
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migya make the ring fall on ya

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PostPosted: Sat Apr 20, 2013 1:31 am
I think if we don't win tomorrow while they don't have Faried, there is no way we win the series. Can't wait for the game.
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 20, 2013 2:24 am
Game 1 is definately an opportunity for a steal, but it is just Game 1. If we win, what a confidence breaker for the Nugs. They are young and likely will be hit hard mentally.

It is on our homecourt where the team has to show their pride and ability and win them all.
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