Andrew Bogut Expectations

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What sort of numbers do you expect out of Bogut once he's healthy?

20 and 10; he's on a better team than ever before and should thrive.
0
No votes
15 and 10; slightly better than his career averages.
0
No votes
13 and 9; about the same as his career numbers.
5
42%
10 and 8; next to Lee, his numbers should take a slight hit.
5
42%
5 and 5; he won't recover enough to play more than 20 minutes.
0
No votes
I don't care, his digits will suck, but he helps the Warriors win.
1
8%
Doesn't matter, Bogut's not the answer. Trade him.
1
8%
 
Total votes : 12


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 05, 2013 3:24 pm
32 wrote:Totally. This is all wild speculation.

But, keeping with the '14-'15 idea of plucking big fish via free agency... DeMarcus Cousins (SAC/SEA) and Greg Monroe (DET) are the prized centers on the market, both are restricted but both play in relatively medium-to-smaller markets. If Bogut is a failure and the team decides to go in a different direction, I'd like to see one of those two guys signed to an offer sheet. It's true, neither sew up the middle like Bogut, but both have the tremendous passing skills that make a Lee-Bogut tandem alluring, plus they're both ideal back-to-the-basket post scorers to pair with a face-up option like Lee.

Martin Gortat, Andrew Bogut, and Spencer Hawes headline the non-restricted options. You gotta figure, a LOT of teams will go after Gortat; he's exactly what teams are looking for in a 5: rebounds, blocks tons of shots, has size, doesn't need the ball a lot but scores when his number is called. Gortat will be handsomely overpaid as the marquee free agent center that year. I'd love to get him, but so would several contenders. Hawes is a spread-5, like Bargnani. I want nothing to do with him. And Bogut is a walking calamity, but assuming he pulls it together for a full season next year, we'll likely have first ups for him.


Why did the Warriors choose to draft Epke Udoh over Greg Monroe?
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 05, 2013 5:27 pm
uptempo wrote:
32 wrote:Totally. This is all wild speculation.

But, keeping with the '14-'15 idea of plucking big fish via free agency... DeMarcus Cousins (SAC/SEA) and Greg Monroe (DET) are the prized centers on the market, both are restricted but both play in relatively medium-to-smaller markets. If Bogut is a failure and the team decides to go in a different direction, I'd like to see one of those two guys signed to an offer sheet. It's true, neither sew up the middle like Bogut, but both have the tremendous passing skills that make a Lee-Bogut tandem alluring, plus they're both ideal back-to-the-basket post scorers to pair with a face-up option like Lee.

Martin Gortat, Andrew Bogut, and Spencer Hawes headline the non-restricted options. You gotta figure, a LOT of teams will go after Gortat; he's exactly what teams are looking for in a 5: rebounds, blocks tons of shots, has size, doesn't need the ball a lot but scores when his number is called. Gortat will be handsomely overpaid as the marquee free agent center that year. I'd love to get him, but so would several contenders. Hawes is a spread-5, like Bargnani. I want nothing to do with him. And Bogut is a walking calamity, but assuming he pulls it together for a full season next year, we'll likely have first ups for him.


Why did the Warriors choose to draft Epke Udoh over Greg Monroe?


The expectation of Udoh contributing to more defense.
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 07, 2013 3:21 am
migya wrote:I like Horford and he definately is a top 5 Center right now, but that's steep to get him. It would be what it'd take likely though. I'd offer AB and Ezeli to the Hawks, along with the 2014 1st rounder, add Rush, for Horford and I think they'd take that and then keep JSmith. They haven't improved in years and though they're a border top 4 team in the East, they are no contender and they've already started the change by getting rid of JJ. Horford next to Lee would be great and who knows, maybe Bogut would be kept, get healthy and then allow the FO to choose between him and Horford, either one healthy would get alot in a trae. Who knows, maybe a three man big rotation og Bogut, Horford and Lee could work, but that's pushing it.




A 3 man rotation of Bogut, Horford, and Lee would work. But that depends on if Bogut is willing to share minutes. If it causes chemistry and locker problems, then it wouldn't work.

But I think Horford would be the perfect player to alongside Lee and Bogut. The Warriors, what they need is a player that can play both the center and the power forward. And I don't mean a David Lee undersized center. I'm talking about guys like Horford, Garnett, or even a Brandon Wright, or Aldridge.

They have 3 centers right now, but they can never make full use of them. Sometimes it does help to have 3 centers, but it would be better to have 2 centers and a third center that can also give heavy minutes at power forward if needed. That is where a Horford comes in.

Horford can play alongside Bogut. Or he can play center with Lee. Or Bogut can play with Lee. That would be a dangerous 3 man rotation, like when Odom played with Bynum and Gasol. But history suggests that having too much depth at one spot ultimately results in too much payroll.
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 07, 2013 3:27 am
32 wrote:I was suggesting Klay OR Barnes; no way they'd get both.

The other option is letting all our big contracts expire and attempting to be players in free agency. The luxury tax line is at $70.3 million this year, we're paying $69.6 million... After next season (Bogut, Jefferson, Biedrins, along with potential options from Rush and Landry ALL expire and) we'll be paying $35.2 million, giving the team roughly another $35 million per to throw around. That's enough for 2 max deal players. And they'll still have the following players on staff:

PG: Curry
SG: Thompson
SF: Barnes / Green
PF: Lee
C: Ezeli

That means our main 3 guns from this year, plus all 3 of the rookies. And let's say the Warriors target DeMarcus Cousins (who is a restricted FA) because the Kings likely won't match a max deal for him. That's $17 million per for Cousins, plus an additional sum for 2 established weapons... The market includes: Luol Deng, Danny Granger, JR Smith, Thabo Sefolosha, Ramon Sessions, Jordan Hill, Kris Humphries, Pau Gasol, Dirk Nowitski, Martin Gortat. Let's say $9 million for Gasol, $5 million for Sessions. Suddenly, with still $4 million left to fill in cracks, our 2014-'15 roster becomes:

PG: Curry / Sessions
SG: Thompson
SF: Barnes / Green
PF: Lee / Gasol
C: Cousins / Ezeli

Nasty?!?!

(This is all assuming Bogut completely mucks up and is a total failure not worth resigning, at which point this team becomes a major player in free agency)




I don't think that Gasol would be okay with coming off the bench. He wants respect, therefore would want to play somewhere else.
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 07, 2013 1:21 pm
8th ave wrote:
uptempo wrote:
32 wrote:Totally. This is all wild speculation.

But, keeping with the '14-'15 idea of plucking big fish via free agency... DeMarcus Cousins (SAC/SEA) and Greg Monroe (DET) are the prized centers on the market, both are restricted but both play in relatively medium-to-smaller markets. If Bogut is a failure and the team decides to go in a different direction, I'd like to see one of those two guys signed to an offer sheet. It's true, neither sew up the middle like Bogut, but both have the tremendous passing skills that make a Lee-Bogut tandem alluring, plus they're both ideal back-to-the-basket post scorers to pair with a face-up option like Lee.

Martin Gortat, Andrew Bogut, and Spencer Hawes headline the non-restricted options. You gotta figure, a LOT of teams will go after Gortat; he's exactly what teams are looking for in a 5: rebounds, blocks tons of shots, has size, doesn't need the ball a lot but scores when his number is called. Gortat will be handsomely overpaid as the marquee free agent center that year. I'd love to get him, but so would several contenders. Hawes is a spread-5, like Bargnani. I want nothing to do with him. And Bogut is a walking calamity, but assuming he pulls it together for a full season next year, we'll likely have first ups for him.


Why did the Warriors choose to draft Epke Udoh over Greg Monroe?


The expectation of Udoh contributing to more defense.

Precisely.

Monroe was a big touted for offense, Udoh was a big touted for his defense. And the fact is, the team's big acquisition (David Lee) needed somebody who could cover his inside flaws on D. While you'll find no endorsement from me in taking Udoh over Monroe at the time (or even the premise of drafting for need instead of talent), the pick didn't flop. In fact, Udoh (when he was here) proved to be the best shot-blocker of that draft class. Obviously now, sharing time with Larry Sanders, its been proven that Udoh was more of an out-of-the-box defender while Sanders' high-ceiling has by and away overtaken Udoh in the past season.

But getting back to topic...

I still believe Andrew Bogut is hurt. Anybody who saw Isaiah Thomas crash into him yesterday to prevent a two-handed slam understands that Bogut is not the type of player to be dissuaded from thundering down on guards when he's 100% (ask Cartier Martin). The question is: how much Bogut are we dealing with? 80%? 50%? His 30-minute game was a good sign, but if this season has proven anything about Bogut's condition, he'll rapidly begin to decline in production for 3-4 more games until the team shuts him down for a breather. He's always hot outta the gate; as shown by his two Toronto performances, plus his games against Phoenix and Dallas when he was still relatively fresh off the DL. The real talent of Bogut needs to be analyzed 4 or 5 games in, at which point we'll know what we're dealing with.

As it stands, he still has a nose for blocking shots, but the at-the-rim, apex swats that made him a marketable stud have been largely replaced by baby blocks coming from an opponents' rear directly under the basket. I have yet to see Bogut soar in for a block, nor have I seen him challenge a player who takes it at him above the rim. He's getting a couple blocks a night, but they seem to be in the general form of what Lee used to be accused of: hollow numbers, not really in any attempt to help the team win. How many times have we seen Bogut block a shot, only to be so winded or out of position that his opposite number recollects the rebound and puts it back in anyway? So while Bogut is still getting his on defense, I think there's a reason the team seems to struggle on that end when he's in there.

And as far as everything else... I mean, lets be honest, Bogut is giving us zilch. He's grabbing opponent's jerseys and getting away with fouls to cover up for the fact that he's not grabbing any rebounds (and the ones he IS grabbing seem to bounce right to him). How many times did the Warriors call him number in the post? Or look for him on the cut after setting a pick? The answer is zero. Offensively, Bogut is there for put-backs and screens. Defensively, he's getting numbers, but League Pass veterans will affirm he's not dominating the defensive end the way he should be, and the rebounding game still hasn't fully gotten there yet.

I'm critical of Bogut because Bogut is MY FAVORITE TYPE OF PLAYER, when he's right. Gritty. Hard-nosed. Gives it his all EVERY game, not afraid to fight or bark or lay down the hard foul or step in front of the freight train. Bogut is my absolute FAVORITE kind of baller... and it absolutely rips me apart to see him not performing the way he needs (and wants) to be. I just want a straight answer out of the Warrior brass (fat chance, I know): is this chronic arthritis of Bogut's cartilage tissue around the ankle? Is there any rhyme or reason that he comes outta the gate hot, but his effort and mobility and general production sinks after 4 or 5 games off the DL? What's the inner workings of what's going on here?

Because, yes, Bogut is back. And, yes, he's cleared for 30+ minutes and back-to-backs and alllll that great stuff. But the guy in the Hulk Hogan 'stache last night, the big Aussie lumbering up and down the floor... Make no mistake, Warriors fans, THAT'S not Andrew Bogut. THAT's not what this management traded for.

Andrew Brogut is a GAME CHANGER, baby.

Thus far, we have yet to see the real Andrew Bogut, despite flashes in several games.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 27, 2013 2:32 pm
And, on cue, a healthy, mobile Andrew Bogut has emerged as the Warriors' defensive catalyst.

The Knicks game is where it became evident, to me. Andrew Bogut's health was clearly improving. Since that time, the Warriors have played 8 games. Of those 8, they have held opponents under 100 points five times. In all 5 games, they've come out on top. The Warriors have won 6 of 8, overall, since Bogut's health regenerated (losing only to the Spurs and Bulls).

In those 5 games where Bogut has led the Warriors to holding opponents under the century mark, Bogut has played an average of 30 minutes (his seasonal average is 25). And in those 30 minutes, he has provided 8.2 points, 9.2 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.2 steals, and 2.6 blocks, shooting 51.6% from the floor, 75% from the free throw line, while only losing 1 turnover (0.2, if you don't count the Wizards game). This does not account for the shots he has altered, the charges he has taken, the guard-coverage he inspires by leading vocally, the opposing big men he's humiliating, or the plays he is completing that defy statistics (stopping a 1-on-4 break comes to mind).

THIS IS ANDREW BOGUT, Warriors fans.

Bogut was never supposed to be a 4 and 4 guy that blocked a shot and hobbled through 18 minutes on one good leg; THIS production of 8 and 10 with 2-5 blocks a night is EXACTLY what Andrew Bogut brings when he's right.

HALLELUJAH. The giant has finally emerged.

The question NOW becomes... how much better are the Warriors when Bogut is on his game like this? Is this team still a 6-seed... or does this team, with the roster as is, become a 3 or 4 seed assuming Bogut, Curry, Lee, and Thompson can all maintain their health simultaneously?

Thoughts, comments, questions...

HOW GOOD ARE THE WARRIORS WITH BOGUT PLAYING LIKE THIS?
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 27, 2013 2:35 pm
32 wrote:C - 6 - ANDREW BOGUT

STRENGTHS (+): Defensively speaking, trails only Dwight Howard as the baddest beast on the Serengeti. Timing on blocked shots borders precognition; extremely efficient shot-blocker with consistent length and weight advantages. Changes shots, commits hard fouls, clears the boards, bodies up even the biggest of ogres. One of, if not the best, centers in terms of taking charges and drawing fouls. Bonafide size; 7-feet tall, 265 pounds, supreme strength in the paint, gets off of two feet incredibly quickly and explosively, rockets out from under the cup for backboard swaying slams. Bogut is slick near the rim; comfortable scoring underhanded, tips balls with military precision, uses head fakes and ball swings to draw fouls. Among the best 7-footers at passing the ball; can drop no looks in the lane and has thrown behind the back baseline passes more than once. Overall, a prototypical center: mean, tough, ideal size, and undeniable skillset.

WEAKNESSES (-): Disappointingly poor shooter for someone who displays such touch at close range; can’t hit free throws and is seemingly best suited to put it up within 8 feet. His need to contest every shot puts him on dunk posters and in foul trouble with disturbing regularity. Not a go-to-scorer and despite his intelligence and skill, can flat out disappear on the scoreboard certain nights. Prone to missing games due to a checkered injury history that – while it has yet to be proven chronic – has followed him around never the less. Despite being a top 3 defensive center, is somewhere between 12-20 in terms of offense. Shows flashes of enforcement, but has yet to truly embrace the role of dominance.

Offensive game… 3.5/5
Defensive game….. 5/5
Intangibles………..… 4.5/5
Skill……………………... 4/5
Effort………………..…. 4/5


OVERALL: 84


viewtopic.php?f=1&t=10202

THIS was always what Bogut was supposed to be.

In the past 8 games, he's finally become exactly what those of us with League Pass had always seen him as.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 27, 2013 4:14 pm
A nice article on Bogut and his impact on Grantland

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-trian ... e-warriors

With good screens warriors might as well compensate for otherwise suspect spacing.
Now, if Jackson somehow managed to have offense running without Curry (our second unit(s)), I might as well start thinking that we can do damage come playoffs.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 27, 2013 4:24 pm
Spacing was never going to be a problem with Bogut because it was worse without him than before.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 27, 2013 5:33 pm
Blackfoot wrote:Spacing was never going to be a problem with Bogut because it was worse without him than before.

Exactly. Bogut has the exact same range as Biedrins/Ezeli; he's simply a better screen-setter, finisher, and offensive rebounder. The only way spacing becomes an issue is without Lee or Landry at the PF (ie, Bogut playing ALONSIDE Ezeli or Biedrins).
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 27, 2013 5:40 pm
Depends - with half-impaired Bogut spacing was a problem, our offense was not good during january-february during many games, granted it could have been due to integrating Bogut into the offense, and Lee into Bogut, but also due to slowing the game to make it less demanding on his body.

Also it needs to be reminded that warriors finished games and second quarters with Landry and Lee before big B, this finishing unit was pretty much the best in plus/minus stat. So while the argument that Bogut changed the team only by starting the games by just replacing Ezeli/Biedrins is not exactly accurate. The finishing of the games and second quarters also took the impact of the change.
Last edited by martin on Wed Mar 27, 2013 5:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 27, 2013 5:44 pm
martin wrote:Depends - with half-impaired Bogut spacing was a problem, our offense was not good during january-february during many games, granted it could have been due to integrating Bogut into the offense, and Lee into Bogut, but also due to slowing the game to make it less demanding on his body.

I don't think Bogut slows down the game any more than Ezeli or Biedrins...

The half-impaired Bogut fell victim to his injuries; opponents didn't guard him because he posed no threat. With his mobility back, that problem is effectively gone. Bogut is a rim-rattler at the cup and flips in nifty lay-ups most of the time. His hook hasn't come around yet, but it didn't in Milwaukee either (very often, that is... he'll make them every now and then, but I'd say the hook shot and the medium-range jumper are the most disappointing parts of Bogut's game).

The lack of range doesn't matter because (a) Bogut never goes outside and (b) when he does, it's only to set screens or run the option. If opponents don't guard Bogut outside, he sets a pivoting screen for a guard that takes the hand-off (where he's surprisingly good at getting away with moving picks).
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 27, 2013 5:56 pm
32 wrote:
martin wrote:Depends - with half-impaired Bogut spacing was a problem, our offense was not good during january-february during many games, granted it could have been due to integrating Bogut into the offense, and Lee into Bogut, but also due to slowing the game to make it less demanding on his body.

I don't think Bogut slows down the game any more than Ezeli or Biedrins...

The half-impaired Bogut fell victim to his injuries; opponents didn't guard him because he posed no threat. With his mobility back, that problem is effectively gone. Bogut is a rim-rattler at the cup and flips in nifty lay-ups most of the time. His hook hasn't come around yet, but it didn't in Milwaukee either (very often, that is... he'll make them every now and then, but I'd say the hook shot and the medium-range jumper are the most disappointing parts of Bogut's game).

The lack of range doesn't matter because (a) Bogut never goes outside and (b) when he does, it's only to set screens or run the option. If opponents don't guard Bogut outside, he sets a pivoting screen for a guard that takes the hand-off (where he's surprisingly good at getting away with moving picks).


I don't think I disagree with that per se, so to say. See my post, I have edited it.
My main issue is about changing our best (to that day) finishing combo, you can't say it did not affect the play. While I have no qualms about Bogut's defense, especially against big guys, we were burned a lot by simple spread fours and penetration, this is not exactly Bogut's problem, but team defense was not adjusting too well. The same can be said about offense, while he did not fumble may balls like ezeli or was completely invisible like biedrins, during the period when he was hardly moving he was not much help.

I'm glad he's much better now and team seems to have found a way to defend perimeter (Klay in particular) while Bogut holds middle very well. and offense starts to look more fluent, and the team is back to punching first with faster ball movement and early attack mode. I saw a nice pick and roll with curry and bogut last Laker game, that is encouraging as well.
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 29, 2013 12:03 am
Bogut is starting to make an impact recently, but it suprises me how his offensive game has deteriorated since coming to the nba. He had a pretty good jumper in college if I remember right and scored well when needed. It'd be complete to see him score some at times, like MGasol, and be a player that has to be guarded well, as that will stop the opposition from focussing on the likes of Curry and Lee so much.

He does his job and provides what the team is weak in.
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