San Franciso 49ers thread

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 19, 2013 3:34 pm
I'm a Niners fan. Have been for awhile and I'm probably the only one that isn't feeling too good about things going into next season. I know there are many Kaepernick supporters and fans out there. People who think he's the answer at the QB position, but I just don't see it. In the Harbaugh era, you can probably count on one hand, the games Alex Smith actually put the team on his back and won the game with his arm. Most notably, for me, is the playoff game against the Saints. But you can also count on one hand the amount of games Alex Smith has lost a game for this team. He just hasn't made many mistakes and he's made great calls at the line of scrimmage. And as intelligent of an individual that Colin is, it doesn't always translate to football intelligence. He's not going to be that Tom Brady, Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers type QB. With plenty of film and the unknown now known, teams will be prepared for CK and he'll more than likely start to adjust, but there will be games where he'll struggle mightily and make mistakes. I don't see this team bettering last year's win total, let a lone playing in the Super Bowl. I'm seeing a 9 - 7 season.
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 19, 2013 4:37 pm
You're not the only one. You can read back a while and you'll see my opinion. Kaep did make me feel better later on, cause he did improve some parts of his game that I thought he should, but I just don't see that potential everybody seem so thrilled about. I think this is it, he will use his legs, his arm is strong, but not that precise, and if he can improve that, than it would be much better. Other than the running, he's not doing a lot of things, certainly he's not that better as it is presented, than Smith. He has flaws as well, and those are things in which Smith was good at, reading the D, quick throws (Kaep has slow release), making adjustments...and, most of all, extremely precise in short and intermediate passes, which is something people take for granted cause it's not something that would make you say WOW! And I don't care for that. Old school, short passing game with game control all day, and that's a win in most cases.

I hope I'm wrong, and teams won't be able to make adjustments to 49ers offense. Cause if they manage to stop his run, I'm afraid his passing game will be more exposed. And with Seahawks also getting better, Rams too, it might be real hard to win the division. Though, Boldin is one of my favorite WRs, so that's a great pickup, Dahl might be good too, and we shall see how Dorsey will fit in his role as a 3-4 DT. Some good moves there by the 49ers as well.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 20, 2013 12:59 am
Kaep is much better than Smith. You guys will stop worrying once the season starts. Only fear you should have for him is injury.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 20, 2013 5:09 am
From a stat guy, you should know better. ::razz: Just kidding, but stat wise, Alex and Kaep are as close as it can be. Minus the running part.
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 24, 2013 10:37 pm
Guybrush wrote:From a stat guy, you should know better. ::razz: Just kidding, but stat wise, Alex and Kaep are as close as it can be. Minus the running part.


No way, not true at all.

Kaep was better last year. He threw it deep 17 percent more often (30 percent of the time) and he put up a better EPA.

Although, I was wrong about worrying about injury. Running QB's have a higher decline rate, but they get injured at the same exact rate as conventional QB's.

Niners made the right choice cap wise and player wise. Niners front office has been like magic lately.
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 25, 2013 12:14 pm
Blackfoot wrote:
Guybrush wrote:From a stat guy, you should know better. ::razz: Just kidding, but stat wise, Alex and Kaep are as close as it can be. Minus the running part.




Kaep was better last year. He threw it deep 17 percent more often (30 percent of the time) and he put up a better EPA.

.


This.

Alex Smith... 1 Dimensional.

Kaepernick... Double Threat.
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 25, 2013 12:28 pm
I'm not a big fan of using algorithmic/aggregate stats like EPA, WPA, QBR for doing this type of comparison for two reasons:

A) I believe that the sample size for this particular stat should be greater.
B) This is like comparing apples to oranges and leaves out many other factors. Mainly because Kaep and Alex couldn't be a more different comparison at the QB position. It's like comparing Peyton with Vick.

Just looking at their stats illustrates the discrepancy between their skill sets:
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Is Alex the better QB just looking at those numbers? The stats would indicate he has a slight edge, but is Kaep the better overall player? They would suggest that too...

One thing they fail to measure is that QB's impact on the game. Did you know that the 9ers averaged 170 yards / game in the 9 games Alex started last season? And that Kaep's 9ers averaged 137 yards? Also if it wasn't for Kaep's running ability, that number would be significantly less. Yes the play calling is different and more designed to keep the ball in Kaeps hands and he shouldn't be blamed for that, but the production from the rest of the offense suffered due to a lack of experience and lesser decision making.

EPA and QBR are a joke (they are basically the same set of rules, just applied a little different) - Do you believe that Kaep is the 3rd best QB in the games? Or Alex is the 7th? I know you don't, but that's were they sit on that list.

With all of that said... Kaep is by far the right move for the 9ers - it's not even close at this point. We couldn't keep Smith and sign the FAs we got, Kaep really picked up a lot last year with his decision making - still no where near Alex, but he's getting there. Kaep does more with his legs and gives us more options - let's face it, neither Alex nor Kaep are Manning (either), Brady, Brees or Godgers... So having that little extra dimension helps a lot. I firmly believe that Kaep is a far better QB then the other mobile QBs. Additionally, he may be a combo of bigger, stronger, faster and more athletic that makes him better at being a mobile QB then those others that rely on that stuff far more to earn their paycheck.

Bottom line, Kaep will make mistakes that Alex wouldn't and the rest of the offense will take a step down, but Kaep will more than make up for both of those things with his raw talent and he will get better. Plus he is younger and cheaper and we got a crap load for Alex which was awesome.
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 25, 2013 1:10 pm
Good to see JREED that you highlighted QBR is overrated.

I was idiotic for ever making that JCampbell bet with you over ASmith and who had the better rating (cause Alex is elite) But Alex Smith is not a elite when you compare the other statistics. it's because he plays the conservative playbook.

Shame you couldn't give statistics about 300+ yard games because I'm pretty sure Kaepernick has had more in 1 year then Alex Smith. But i could be wrong.
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 25, 2013 1:33 pm
Nice one JREED. That's basically what I was trying to say, overall, they are really not that far away. Kaep is much better runner, and Alex is a better passer (overall, not looking only at deep balls, cause some people seem to think that is sooo important, when in reality, it isn't).

And yeah, Niners got stronger because of more cap room, and they will get even stronger with those picks they got for Alex. Which wouldn't be so high if Alex was bad as some say. Keep in mind that second round pick from Chiefs is the first pick in the second round.

Pawno, that 300+ yards stat is even more meaningless that QBR. Of course you're not gonna throw the ball that much when your team is leading almost every time, and the type of offense is the one which is based on time control. So, I'd take a win in a game control offense any day, than Cam's 300+ yards in losses.
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 25, 2013 2:20 pm
I judge based on who is better at putting points on the board. I don't really care that they play differently. Peyton is better than Vick and it's easy to say that because Peyton puts up more points on the board. I don't care how they do it, as long as they do it.


Cam is also very good, shouldn't knock him for an awful defense.

Edit: Also, Kaep was 16th in EPA: http://wp.advancednflstats.com/playerstats.php?pos=QB

Never thought he was top three. But it's easy to compare Smith and Kaep because they played in the same system with the same players around them. It's not like judging Palmer vs Smith which put up identical EPA. I think Palmer is better but that he was in an awful offensive system with really bad role players. But since Kaep and Smith played in the system, I don't find it that hard to say I'd take Kaep over Smith without thinking about it. Even if just for one season.

Could be wrong, Kaep could regress next year while Smith lights it up. But right now, I'd take Kaep.
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 25, 2013 3:35 pm
Never mentioned their EPA, I was referring to their QBR (sorry Pawno, not QB Rating, but ESPN's aggregate QBR which is based off of advancednflstats.com's EPA, but you're right, it's all overrated) which is based of the same rules of EPA, just applied slightly different. Merely trying to illustrate that these aggregate statistics can be arbitrary and based of weak conjecture (if that). If all you care about is scoring then, Alex @23.6 ppg & CK @ 26.2 ppg isn't a huge difference, especially considering the tiny sample size.

They didn't even play in the same systems. The comparison is just as irrelevant. Alex wasn't playing in the pistol option, lol not even close. Hell, the personnel was even different - when we saw more option (and Hunter go down) we saw more LaMichael James who brought an entirely different aspect to our game plan. We saw less FB, and when the FB was in there, he was used differently. Not to mention we saw some guys see far less PT because they couldn't handle the CK fastball *cough* Walker *cough* - seriously, this was an actual problem, NFL players not being able to catch a f***ing hard thrown football.

I agree with you guys that Kaep is the better option, the dude has so much upside. I'm just backing up what my fellow 9er fans are trying to tell you Raider fans - that it isn't nearly the statistical landslide that your language would suggest.

Oh BTW, Alex >>> Palmer - for realz... I'll take up a sig bet with anyone (on agreeable terms) that Alex does better with the Chiefs than Palmer does with the Raiders. Both teams are pretty bad, so this outta be an easy bet for anyone that feels like Palmer is better. :wink:
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 25, 2013 4:01 pm
Yeah, the 49ers scored less than 2.5 points per game more with Alex, because of a Kaep's run game, cause actually Alex was throwing more TDs per game. But, on the other hand, because of a bad clock management, few three and outs, and then one quick score, you have a difference in points allowed per game, with Alex it was 12.9, with Kaep it's 21.3. So, I would think about those changes. Stats don't tell the whole story, well, at least not if you are cherry picking them. And one of two "wow" plays a game don't mean that it is granted you're great. Much closer games will be played with Kaep, IMO.

EPA is terrible, at least that's how I see it. How can you include some stuff as wins because of a player, in formula? There's nothing granted there, and no way you can calculate how much exactly it was contribution of one player. I mean, Ponder, Freeman, Bradford, Stafford...all in front of Alex. That tells a lot. Even if you wanna make a case they are better, which some might be, last season would definitely not be one of those where you could prove that.

And Cam is making a lot of mistakes , too many TOs. I don't know why people don't look at that, three and outs, clock management (game control) as valuable stuff. He will trail 21 points, then he will catch up in the last one, put up great numbers before it's over, but still fail to win. Throwing 300 yards won't win you a game if you throw 1-2 INTs, plus a few lost fumbles.

I don't know, maybe you and I prefer different types of QBs. I love safe play, keeping the ball, no need for huge runs and risky throws a lot. You won't give opponent a chance to beat you, if the ball is in your position, simple as that.
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 25, 2013 4:05 pm
The problem here seems to be that people are trying to downplay Alex. Not me, nor JREED, said that Kaep is bad, just that difference is not as big as it is made up to be. They are pretty close. Difference being that often mentioned potential. Which is not granted, but something people usually take a chance on.

I mean, Palmer is better? For real Blackfoot? Palmer might be playing for Cardinals this season, and Alex was one of the best acquisitions so far in the NFL, since the new season started officially.
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 1:03 am
JREED wrote:Never mentioned their EPA, I was referring to their QBR (sorry Pawno, not QB Rating, but ESPN's aggregate QBR which is based off of advancednflstats.com's EPA, but you're right, it's all overrated) which is based of the same rules of EPA, just applied slightly different. Merely trying to illustrate that these aggregate statistics can be arbitrary and based of weak conjecture (if that). If all you care about is scoring then, Alex @23.6 ppg & CK @ 26.2 ppg isn't a huge difference, especially considering the tiny sample size.

They didn't even play in the same systems. The comparison is just as irrelevant. Alex wasn't playing in the pistol option, lol not even close. Hell, the personnel was even different - when we saw more option (and Hunter go down) we saw more LaMichael James who brought an entirely different aspect to our game plan. We saw less FB, and when the FB was in there, he was used differently. Not to mention we saw some guys see far less PT because they couldn't handle the CK fastball *cough* Walker *cough* - seriously, this was an actual problem, NFL players not being able to catch a f***ing hard thrown football.

I agree with you guys that Kaep is the better option, the dude has so much upside. I'm just backing up what my fellow 9er fans are trying to tell you Raider fans - that it isn't nearly the statistical landslide that your language would suggest.

Oh BTW, Alex >>> Palmer - for realz... I'll take up a sig bet with anyone (on agreeable terms) that Alex does better with the Chiefs than Palmer does with the Raiders. Both teams are pretty bad, so this outta be an easy bet for anyone that feels like Palmer is better. :wink:


Palmer > Smith.

Not even sure Palmer will be on the Raiders. I'd know I'd take Palmer over Smith though. All that winning made Smith overrated.

I am sure Niner fans think the Chiefs made a great acquisition. But the Niners straight up robbed the Chiefs.

Also, regarding Cam. He had a very low turnover rate last year and only threw 12 interceptions. Not sure why the myth exists, but it does. Cam Newton doesn't turn it often and puts up points in a hurry. God awful team defense.
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 11:44 am
Alex makes far less mistakes than Palmer - even in his losing seasons. Actually, Palmer has only had a couple of good seasons and everyone wants to act like he is a top 10 QB, while Alex gets bashed because he put up good numbers after (and before, but nobody cares to check the stats) he had a decent coaching staff and good team around him. It works both ways. There is a double standard here.

Smith is also much more of a team first guy, which has been proven on multiple occasions - taking pay cuts, resigning with an organizations whose fans threw him under the bus, not only being quiet about losing his job in the manner that he did, but being a huge resource and asset to Kaep's progression. On the other hand you have Palmer who is older, costs much more and he has proven multiple times that he is a ME first guy - I don't need to provide instances of this as Raider fans are quickly becoming indoctrinated in the ways of a selfish, overrated Palmer.

So yeah, even if Palmer was better than Smith, a team would be far better off with a guy like Smith as their QB. Especially considering that neither guy is a long term solution at QB (certainly not Palmer at 33) and whatever team has these guys are going to be looking for their QB of the future. Do you see Palmer coexisting with his eventual replacement? Let alone, aiding in his progression? lol, maybe it's not his fault for having the misfortune of playing for two of the least reputable front offices in the league and he's just saying "FU, pay me my guaranteed $$$ and then I'm out." If the Raider cut him, they're still on the hook for a lot.

I don't think the Chiefs made a good deal, but not for the same reasons that most think this way. I think that the disparity of value placed on QBs and other players is too much. We all know QBs are that important, but the league has gotten out of control with hoisting these guys up on their massive contracts. The question is, are any on the not top 5 QBs worth that kind of compensation? A starting caliber QB in this league is outrageously overvalued, particularly when you consider the success that these young guys are having. Was Joe Flacco worth the massive contract he was give? More importantly, is he worth reducing your SB winning team to what it is now over one guy? Is Joe ****ing Flacco worth 16.2% of your salary cap or is Peyton Manning worth 14.6%!?! You still have 52 other guys to take care of! I guess in this, "win now, worry about the rest later" league they are as coaches, GMs, etc are faced with unexpected and potentially, immediate dismissal.

Still the Chiefs made a far better deal than the Raiders did as they got a starting QB that makes less mistakes, that is 5-6 years younger, cheaper, more of a team player and will be there to help the team transition into there next QB when the time comes. Plus they gave up far less. Oh and he'll actually be on the roster - no getting those 1st rounders back now.


You're right, Cam's turnovers are a bit of a misconception, but I wouldn't go as far as to say he had a very low turnover rate, actually his fumbles (10) put him in the top (bottom?) five among all QBs which is pretty bad, but that's forgiven being a young mobile QB (Kaep was actually worse with 9, but 2 of those came from plays when he wasn't even the QB), his Int % pretty mediocre (2.5%) placing him around the middle of the pack.

His TOs aren't really the problem, actually I don't think he has many problems asides from being labeled a somewhat of an ineffective leader and student of the game. Perhaps it's the impossible comparisons with the younger (drafted in the past 2 seasons) QBs that are out performing him - Luck, RG3 (for entirely different reasons), Kaep, Wilson and Dalton. Not saying they are better (although I believe they are with the exception of RG3), but they are out performing him.

I actually like Cam a lot, I think he is an exciting young talent and I love watching him play. But I feel like I speak for all NFL fans when I say, "Dude Cam, STFU!!!" When you start pissing off veteran, all-pro guys like Steve Smith, then you've crossed a line and time to file back in and earn the right to speak out. Guys like Brady and Manning can say whatever the f*ck they want, whenever the f*ck they want, to whoever the f*ck they want because they have earned that right. Their teammates don't call them superman, they call them sir. When you've attained even a fraction of that respect, then you can feel partially entitled to throw your team under the bus, but until then... just STFU. Maybe that's why the myth exists... nobody likes a sore loser and an asshole that celebrates as much as he does on a losing team. You can be one or the other, but not both.
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