Team's SOS

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 06, 2013 7:55 pm
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I hope this makes others feel better about our position of being in the sixth position as well as our playoff spot in regards to other teams. We have played the second toughest schedule in league.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 06, 2013 7:59 pm
Also, quick note, when you adjust for this SOS our differential is more like the 12th best team in the league, so -.6 is not reflective of where we are at in regards to other teams.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 06, 2013 8:59 pm
well, we are in a tie with houston re: SOS, so it's gonna be a fight.
but it looks like we beat the odds re: expeted win percentage, which only means that we might fall down to expected winning percentage and lose some more (though i don't know what it is for our upcomng games) seeing that more teams win less than expected.

also this: http://espn.go.com/nba/stats/rpi/_/sort/SOS

notice fluctuations for example re: wizards position

btw, i can't make much sense out of expected wins percentage for houston - were they so much counted on being good?
"i wish i was a little bit taller" skee lo

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 06, 2013 10:59 pm
Where we are supposed to be based on our differential and record is 28-32 give or take one game. But where we are right now is probably our skill level because EWP doesn't consider strength of schedule. We are going to finish the season ahead of where we are supposed to be, but our record right now, that's probably our true place but will finish higher in winning percentage than what we are at due to a weak schedule coming up.

16-8 in close games now. Not very sustainable.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 07, 2013 7:49 am
Blackfoot wrote:Where we are supposed to be based on our differential and record is 28-32 give or take one game. But where we are right now is probably our skill level because EWP doesn't consider strength of schedule. We are going to finish the season ahead of where we are supposed to be, but our record right now, that's probably our true place but will finish higher in winning percentage than what we are at due to a weak schedule coming up.

16-8 in close games now. Not very sustainable.


Thanks for clarification, it looked like a lot of teams were below EWP and EWL, regardless of SOS. I don't know if you can make an argument that that's (our record) where our skill level is from that. Quite the contrary - given our difficult/strong schedule according to trend in EWL/EWP we should be below our current record - somewhere at 27/26 - 33/34.
What can you make out of that? Probably that we were playing above our heads and skill set (or talent sum) and it puts a smile on a face for stat guys that finally we fell off. Also it makes for a hard edged fluctuation in opinions of the team as it currently plays in regards to what it was doing two months ago. We were overachieving on all fronts - winning tons of close games, having our defense look like it was almiost as good as anyones in top 10 of the league etc. Now we either are underachieving - losing close games, defense being in the late 20 or so or playing like we were expected to - to the detriment of the fans.

Anyway none of this really explains how and why it all happens. It just raises questions:
Was bogut such a hole in the middle that after he came back the tight and light chemistry we had went out of window? Can it be resumed with ailing and slow franchize center coming in and out?
Was our defense a gimmick and teams finally got to figure out that we collapse and leave the perimeter open, so as to plan the game to shoot more open threes? And that the zone and help can't mask sufficient lack of indivudual defensive power in our starting four?
And finally - can our bench with three possible scorers, of whom only one contributes more consitently now, sustain any level of play to be considered deep bench come the playoffs or any tougher games?

In other words: the season of luck is over, welcome to reality.
"i wish i was a little bit taller" skee lo

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 07, 2013 8:10 am
p.s. the good thing - according to reports warriors are looking to sign a veteran player. that's at least a sign that FO are taking this more seriously and see that we need help. now, hopefully they find someone who can contribute.
"i wish i was a little bit taller" skee lo

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