Andrew Bogut Expectations

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What sort of numbers do you expect out of Bogut once he's healthy?

20 and 10; he's on a better team than ever before and should thrive.
0
No votes
15 and 10; slightly better than his career averages.
0
No votes
13 and 9; about the same as his career numbers.
5
42%
10 and 8; next to Lee, his numbers should take a slight hit.
5
42%
5 and 5; he won't recover enough to play more than 20 minutes.
0
No votes
I don't care, his digits will suck, but he helps the Warriors win.
1
8%
Doesn't matter, Bogut's not the answer. Trade him.
1
8%
 
Total votes : 12


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 01, 2013 7:45 pm
No, teams would love to take a flyer on bogut, especially since he expires. No one would love to have Beans at all except as an expirere.

Bogut isn't risky, he'd be low risk.

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 01, 2013 7:51 pm
Blackfoot wrote:No, teams would love to take a flyer on bogut, especially since he expires. No one would love to have Beans at all except as an expirere.

Bogut isn't risky, he'd be low risk.


The same Bogut that has been injured for how long ? including his time with the Bucks. The same Bogut who came back with slow, and now has some sort of back injury to go along with an ankle injury.

The truth is what is expected of Bogut is not what is transcending right now. Beans gets the edge because at least he could be on the floor, even when on the floor Bogut is still too slow.
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 01, 2013 7:58 pm
Bogut, 2014 1st rounder, and Barnes/Klay for Al Hordford and Lou Williams

Atlanta is an ideal trading partner because they're sure to lose Josh Smith this summer, giving them credible pretext for an all-out rebuild around Jeff Teague, our prospect, and whoever they can land via free agency (they'd love Howard). If they throw the bank at Howard, they'll need to find him a compatible cast of charters. A shoot-first guard (Williams) and a paint dwelling 4/5 (like Horford) don't fit with him. I bet they'd leap at a chance to add Klay Thompson and also get $12 million in expiring contracts.

The Warriors get a center and still have $20 million between RJ & Biedrins for free agency.
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 01, 2013 8:03 pm
32 wrote:Bogut, 2014 1st rounder, and Barnes/Klay for Al Hordford and Lou Williams

Atlanta is an ideal trading partner because they're sure to lose Josh Smith this summer, giving them credible pretext for an all-out rebuild around Jeff Teague, our prospect, and whoever they can land via free agency (they'd love Howard). If they throw the bank at Howard, they'll need to find him a compatible cast of charters. A shoot-first guard (Williams) and a paint dwelling 4/5 (like Horford) don't fit with him. I bet they'd leap at a chance to add Klay Thompson and also get $12 million in expiring contracts.

The Warriors get a center and still have $20 million between RJ & Biedrins for free agency.


Barnes + Thompson? Or either or?

I think we'd have to include both to make it worth while for them.
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 01, 2013 8:54 pm
Barnes, Klay, a first rounder, and Bogut for just Al Horford would be us getting ripped off.

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 01, 2013 10:49 pm
I don't think the Hawks want Bogut unless they can sign him to an extension and he needs to show he going to make a positive impact throughout the season. So far he just been serviceable not the key piece for the Warriors. Ankles and back problems have plague him already. Teams are wary of his ability to stay healthy and he is recovering slowly. I like Al Horford, but I see him as a Power Forward more than a Center. Warriors already have D Lee at he 4 unless Warriors unload D Lee in another trade.
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 03, 2013 5:20 am
I like Horford and he definately is a top 5 Center right now, but that's steep to get him. It would be what it'd take likely though. I'd offer AB and Ezeli to the Hawks, along with the 2014 1st rounder, add Rush, for Horford and I think they'd take that and then keep JSmith. They haven't improved in years and though they're a border top 4 team in the East, they are no contender and they've already started the change by getting rid of JJ. Horford next to Lee would be great and who knows, maybe Bogut would be kept, get healthy and then allow the FO to choose between him and Horford, either one healthy would get alot in a trae. Who knows, maybe a three man big rotation og Bogut, Horford and Lee could work, but that's pushing it.
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 03, 2013 1:39 pm
I was suggesting Klay OR Barnes; no way they'd get both.

The other option is letting all our big contracts expire and attempting to be players in free agency. The luxury tax line is at $70.3 million this year, we're paying $69.6 million... After next season (Bogut, Jefferson, Biedrins, along with potential options from Rush and Landry ALL expire and) we'll be paying $35.2 million, giving the team roughly another $35 million per to throw around. That's enough for 2 max deal players. And they'll still have the following players on staff:

PG: Curry
SG: Thompson
SF: Barnes / Green
PF: Lee
C: Ezeli

That means our main 3 guns from this year, plus all 3 of the rookies. And let's say the Warriors target DeMarcus Cousins (who is a restricted FA) because the Kings likely won't match a max deal for him. That's $17 million per for Cousins, plus an additional sum for 2 established weapons... The market includes: Luol Deng, Danny Granger, JR Smith, Thabo Sefolosha, Ramon Sessions, Jordan Hill, Kris Humphries, Pau Gasol, Dirk Nowitski, Martin Gortat. Let's say $9 million for Gasol, $5 million for Sessions. Suddenly, with still $4 million left to fill in cracks, our 2014-'15 roster becomes:

PG: Curry / Sessions
SG: Thompson
SF: Barnes / Green
PF: Lee / Gasol
C: Cousins / Ezeli

Nasty?!?!

(This is all assuming Bogut completely mucks up and is a total failure not worth resigning, at which point this team becomes a major player in free agency)
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 03, 2013 1:59 pm
In two seasons Klay is up for resigning and depending how he performs, could be a good 10 million a year, same thing with Barnes in three years. The FO does have to take that into account. I think that at least the expiring contracts of AB and RJ will allow one other player to be signed in the range of 7-10 million a year to keep it safe and to be honest, such a player could be enough to take the current team to contender, if the likes of Jack and Landry are kept.
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 03, 2013 3:10 pm
Totally. This is all wild speculation.

But, keeping with the '14-'15 idea of plucking big fish via free agency... DeMarcus Cousins (SAC/SEA) and Greg Monroe (DET) are the prized centers on the market, both are restricted but both play in relatively medium-to-smaller markets. If Bogut is a failure and the team decides to go in a different direction, I'd like to see one of those two guys signed to an offer sheet. It's true, neither sew up the middle like Bogut, but both have the tremendous passing skills that make a Lee-Bogut tandem alluring, plus they're both ideal back-to-the-basket post scorers to pair with a face-up option like Lee.

Martin Gortat, Andrew Bogut, and Spencer Hawes headline the non-restricted options. You gotta figure, a LOT of teams will go after Gortat; he's exactly what teams are looking for in a 5: rebounds, blocks tons of shots, has size, doesn't need the ball a lot but scores when his number is called. Gortat will be handsomely overpaid as the marquee free agent center that year. I'd love to get him, but so would several contenders. Hawes is a spread-5, like Bargnani. I want nothing to do with him. And Bogut is a walking calamity, but assuming he pulls it together for a full season next year, we'll likely have first ups for him.
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 03, 2013 10:18 pm
32 wrote:Totally. This is all wild speculation.

But, keeping with the '14-'15 idea of plucking big fish via free agency... DeMarcus Cousins (SAC/SEA) and Greg Monroe (DET) are the prized centers on the market, both are restricted but both play in relatively medium-to-smaller markets. If Bogut is a failure and the team decides to go in a different direction, I'd like to see one of those two guys signed to an offer sheet. It's true, neither sew up the middle like Bogut, but both have the tremendous passing skills that make a Lee-Bogut tandem alluring, plus they're both ideal back-to-the-basket post scorers to pair with a face-up option like Lee.

Martin Gortat, Andrew Bogut, and Spencer Hawes headline the non-restricted options. You gotta figure, a LOT of teams will go after Gortat; he's exactly what teams are looking for in a 5: rebounds, blocks tons of shots, has size, doesn't need the ball a lot but scores when his number is called. Gortat will be handsomely overpaid as the marquee free agent center that year. I'd love to get him, but so would several contenders. Hawes is a spread-5, like Bargnani. I want nothing to do with him. And Bogut is a walking calamity, but assuming he pulls it together for a full season next year, we'll likely have first ups for him.


Cousins is a talented player, but he acts like a jerk. That's why it might be possible to get him as a bargain. However, the Warriors management is not interested in someone like him. They are trying to build a team on the Spurs model, all high character people. Cousins, I wish the best for him, but right now he is nowhere near the level of maturity Bob Myers and company are looking for.

I like Greg Monroe....I wonder about his defense....seems like he's more of an offensive player....doesn't block too many shots....he is a very nice passer though.....nice footwook, runs very well....nice hands...very nice. I think it's pretty clear around the league that he's going to be very good....it would be tough to land him.

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 03, 2013 10:50 pm
32 wrote:Totally. This is all wild speculation.

But, keeping with the '14-'15 idea of plucking big fish via free agency... DeMarcus Cousins (SAC/SEA) and Greg Monroe (DET) are the prized centers on the market, both are restricted but both play in relatively medium-to-smaller markets. If Bogut is a failure and the team decides to go in a different direction, I'd like to see one of those two guys signed to an offer sheet. It's true, neither sew up the middle like Bogut, but both have the tremendous passing skills that make a Lee-Bogut tandem alluring, plus they're both ideal back-to-the-basket post scorers to pair with a face-up option like Lee.

Martin Gortat, Andrew Bogut, and Spencer Hawes headline the non-restricted options. You gotta figure, a LOT of teams will go after Gortat; he's exactly what teams are looking for in a 5: rebounds, blocks tons of shots, has size, doesn't need the ball a lot but scores when his number is called. Gortat will be handsomely overpaid as the marquee free agent center that year. I'd love to get him, but so would several contenders. Hawes is a spread-5, like Bargnani. I want nothing to do with him. And Bogut is a walking calamity, but assuming he pulls it together for a full season next year, we'll likely have first ups for him.


Gortat is pretty good for offense and rebounding, but you are giving him a lot of credit on defense. He's god awful defensively. He doesn't deter guys from getting to the rim and they score at a high rate against him at the rim.
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 04, 2013 7:32 pm
Blackfoot wrote:
32 wrote:Totally. This is all wild speculation.

But, keeping with the '14-'15 idea of plucking big fish via free agency... DeMarcus Cousins (SAC/SEA) and Greg Monroe (DET) are the prized centers on the market, both are restricted but both play in relatively medium-to-smaller markets. If Bogut is a failure and the team decides to go in a different direction, I'd like to see one of those two guys signed to an offer sheet. It's true, neither sew up the middle like Bogut, but both have the tremendous passing skills that make a Lee-Bogut tandem alluring, plus they're both ideal back-to-the-basket post scorers to pair with a face-up option like Lee.

Martin Gortat, Andrew Bogut, and Spencer Hawes headline the non-restricted options. You gotta figure, a LOT of teams will go after Gortat; he's exactly what teams are looking for in a 5: rebounds, blocks tons of shots, has size, doesn't need the ball a lot but scores when his number is called. Gortat will be handsomely overpaid as the marquee free agent center that year. I'd love to get him, but so would several contenders. Hawes is a spread-5, like Bargnani. I want nothing to do with him. And Bogut is a walking calamity, but assuming he pulls it together for a full season next year, we'll likely have first ups for him.


Gortat is pretty good for offense and rebounding, but you are giving him a lot of credit on defense. He's god awful defensively. He doesn't deter guys from getting to the rim and they score at a high rate against him at the rim.

Well, he's kind of in a tough spot. Phoenix plays zero perimeter defense and he has to deal with a LOT of mistakes from teammates. He was terrific in Orlando at sewing up the middle. To me, a 7'2" guy whose a career 1.5 blocks in 22 minutes is an asset. He sends away 1.6 a game as a starter this year, which is the same as Bogut. I think he's an above-average defensive center and in a system like ours his advanced numbers would be more reflective of that.
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 05, 2013 6:13 am
I also think Detroit would be crazy to let Monroe go, he is there best player in quite some years.

Think Gortat is 6'10 and though he is average defensively, very efficient offensively and still a top 10 Center for sure, better than most you can find on the free agent market. I'd take him for less than 13 million a year.
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 05, 2013 2:49 pm
migya wrote:I also think Detroit would be crazy to let Monroe go, he is there best player in quite some years.

Think Gortat is 6'10 and though he is average defensively, very efficient offensively and still a top 10 Center for sure, better than most you can find on the free agent market. I'd take him for less than 13 million a year.


Drummond is better than Monroe, younger, and was just drafted. They play the same position and they are not effective together (could change,) but if Detroit feels like they will never be effective together than they should trade Monroe and get a lot for him.
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