Coming from Tim Kawakami:
I’ll supply 7 Reasons Why Josh Smith Won’t Be Moving to the Warriors This Summer:
1. The Warriors are (at least) one excellent player short of sure-fire playoff contention… but I’m not at all sure that Smith is That Player.
In fact, I think the Warriors do not believe he is that player. Smith is only 22 and he does many good things (big-time shot-blocker, decent rebounder, OK passer, can run the floor and finish) but he’s a career 44.5% shooter and that is not exactly your definition of a low-post scorer.
Which leads right to…
2. Smith is probably not worth giving up Wright–whom the Warriors love, remember–and giving away Harrington–whom Mullin loves.
The Warriors believe Wright, who is two years younger, will end up doing many of the same things Smith does now, but more efficiently and definitely more inexpensively (for now).
And as I’ve typed often, Mullin isn’t giving Harrington away, even if Don Nelson would like him to. If Mullin is going to give up Wright and Harrington, he’s going to want someone he’s sure can get him into the playoffs and maybe win him a round.
Josh Smith isn’t that guy.
Which leads to…
3. Smith’s contract would be huge–possibly larger than the 6-year, $66M deal the Warriors just gave Monta Ellis, and I believe it’s very important to Monta that he’s the highest-paid Warriors player.
VERY IMPORTANT to Monta. I cannot emphasize that one any more than I already have.
The Warriors carefully kept Corey Maggette’s F/A deal and Andris Biedrins’ RFA deal under Ellis’ deal. That was market rate (or in Maggette’s case, slightly above), but it also gave Mullin room to come on top of them both with Ellis’ deal.
4. Smith’s deal, probably at more than $11M a year, would screw up the Warriors’ finances into the future–and again, they have carefully planned to give themselves room in the future.
We go back to that issue–is Smith That Player? Is he Brand, KG or a Young Baron? No, he’s not that good.
The Warriors are trying to set themselves up to have lots of young talent and have room next season to add one more big salary, if that’s the guy who coalesces everything, the way KG did for Boston and Steve Nash did for Phoenix a few years ago.
I’ll say it again: Josh Smith isn’t that guy, not when they’ve already spent $50M on Maggette, $54M on Biedrins, $17M on Ronny Turiaf and $66M on Ellis.
5. Smith doesn’t quite fit the Warriors’ system, either.
He could fit it, I guess. That’s not out of the question. But ideally, a Nellie big man either can shoot threes or can score at a high % on the low post or can stuff the other team’s monster big man.
I’m not sure Smith does any of those things. He’s not an on-ball smother guy–he likes to guard weaker offensive players and then come swooping in to swat the shots from the better players. He’s not a great jumpshooter, but he likes to shoot. Too much.
He put up 99 three-pointers last year and made 25. He also is a high-turnover guy–3 per game last year. That’s no good. (Harrington and Biedrins were both at 1.1 TOs/game last year. Ellis was 2.1) In a fast system, that, to me, equals a potential tall 39% shooter with 4.5 TOs a game.
Al Horford did most of the tough stuff last year in Atlanta–now Horford would be a very excellent Warriors’ addition. I’d give up Wright, Harrington and practically anybody else on the roster (except Ellis and Randolph) for Horford.
Al Horford could be That Player. (Horford: 1.7 TOs/per.) But he’s not a free agent and he’s assuredly not available.
6. I don’t think Atlanta would accept the Wright/Harrington package, even if it’s sweetened.
The Hawks are dumb, but they’ve already lost RFA Josh Childress to a Greek team. They built a high level (for them) of excitement last season around Smith, Horford, Joe Johnson, Childress and a little bit of Mike Bibby.
It’d be awful if they lost both Childress and Smith, playing a RFA system in which almost nobody loses high-quality RFAs. You’re not supposed to lose RFAs that are stars. They lost one. They’re not going to lose Smith and it’ll take more than Brandan Wright–I think–to pry Smith loose.
7. I think the Warriors are happy with what they’ve accomplished after losing Baron. Chris Mullin will never say he’s done… but he’s basically done for the summer.
-They’re not offering Wright to anybody: He’s their power forward of the future next to Randolph and Biedrins on the frontline.
-They’re not giving Harrington away. He’s the only proven spot-up three-point shooter on the roster, unless you count Marcus Williams and I don’t.
Heres the whole article if your interested: http://blogs.mercurynews.com/kawakami/2 ... ly-should/
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Thanks for the info man. I've been waiting so long for someone to chime in on this possible trade.
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Bada I've heard two writers so far say that the W's can add one more big time FA's! And I've looked at your number and they can add another big time FA in 2011. But they would have marginal backup's to fill in other needed spots...
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