can somebody w/ insider post this article?

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2007 7:21 pm
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/ ... %3d2734001

I know it's hollingjerk but I'm curious
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 10:07 am
I got you. For a John Hollinger article, it's not a bad read. Here you go:

*

Trade analysis: Pacers may hit home run in long run

Whoa … Where'd that come from?

Even the most brazen rumormongers were taken by surprise Wednesday when the Warriors and Pacers agreed on an eight-player trade that sends Troy Murphy, Mike Dunleavy, Ike Diogu and Keith McLeod to Indiana for Al Harrington, Stephen Jackson, Sarunas Jasikevicius and Josh Powell.

On the surface, this looks like a classic "grass-is-greener" trade.

Contrary to the expectations of many, Dunleavy and Murphy haven't meshed with new coach Don Nelson and his wide-open system, though Dunleavy has raised his level of play.

Meanwhile, the mutterings about chemistry problems in Indiana long have centered on Jackson -- especially since his arrest on felony charges in October -- and Harrington has endured an unexpectedly bumpy ride in his first campaign since rejoining the Pacers.

Why? Because, while Jackson, Dunleavy, Murphy and Harrington are the four names in all the headlines, the guy who could make the trade a home run for the Pacers is Diogu.

The 6-8 second-year forward has had trouble getting minutes in Nelson's perimeter-oriented, smallball-friendly system. But while he's averaged just 13.1 minutes a game in 17 appearances, Diogu has played brilliantly when given the chance.

Per 40 minutes, his numbers jump off the page -- 22.2 points, 11.4 rebounds and 2.0 blocks. He's shooting 53 percent from the floor and 79.6 percent from the line, with the last number particularly important because he draws so many fouls in the low post. Overall, his PER of 18.8 is easily the highest of any player in the trade.

Based on his rookie season stats from a year ago, this season's numbers don't seem like a fluke. Diogu's rookie year PER of 15.8 also beats the 2006-07 rating of anyone else in the deal, as his percentages were nearly identical and his 40-minute numbers (18.8 points, 8.9 boards) weren't too far off.

So why didn't Diogu play more? Nelson's system obviously had a lot to do with it, but so did Diogu's defense. He can block shots, but he's a bit short for a power forward and, like most other young players, he struggles at that end of the floor. Paired with another developing big man in Andris Biedrins, Diogu had nobody to cover for his mistakes, so it was easier in many cases to leave him on the pine.

As a Pacer, however, he'll be paired with one of the best frontcourt defenders in the league in Jermaine O'Neal, and when O'Neal checks out another elite defender, Jeff Foster, will check in. As a result, Indiana should be much better positioned to mask Diogu's defensive shortcomings than Golden State was.

Also, the Pacers' post-oriented attack is much more in keeping with Diogu's skill set than the freewheeling system Nellie ran in Golden State. So if anything, his already prodigious output may increase now that he's joining the Pacers, at least on a per-possession basis.

There might be other dividends for Indy as well. With this deal, the Pacers have an even bigger logjam in the frontcourt, with O'Neal, Foster, Murphy, Diogu, Maceo Baston and David Harrison. A trade of one of them for a wing player would be the obvious follow-up to this move.

And if Murphy's jumper can find the net consistently, he may provide spacing for O'Neal to go to work down low.

Golden State fans will point out they didn't come out of this empty-handed, either. For starters, Jackson and Harrington are better defenders than Murphy and Dunleavy -- the difference isn't huge, but it may prove important given how horrid the Warriors' defense has been of late.

The Warriors also got themselves into better shape contract-wise. The deals that GM Chris Mullin handed out to Murphy and Dunleavy had become notorious albatrosses in Oakland, while the contracts of Harrington and Jackson expire a year earlier and are slightly less onerous.

And Golden State upgraded the point guard position behind Baron Davis by getting Jasikevicius (to replace McLeod), an important consideration given how injury-prone Davis is.

Nonetheless, it's shocking to see the Warriors include such a talented prospect as Diogu as a throw-in, especially considering a year earlier they wouldn't budge on putting him into a deal for Ron Artest.

It's not like including him was necessary to balance the scales. Going by 2006-07 PER, the three highest-rated players in this deal all went to Indiana. In fact, Murphy has outrated Harrington in four of the past five seasons (including this one). And while Jackson is preferable to Dunleavy on talent, he is a huge question mark in the chemistry department -- not to mention a guy who has to stand trial in Indianapolis in February.

So if you take Diogu and Powell out of the trade, this deal starts looking a lot more reasonable -- Golden State upgrades the backcourt a bit, gets a slight improvement in the cap situation, takes on a bad apple in the locker room and makes a slight downgrade from Murphy to Harrington. That seems fair.

But to throw in Diogu on top of it? That's absurd. Or it's genius, if you're looking at it from Indiana's perspective.

The other names are nice and all, but 10 years from now I have a feeling that we'll be looking back on this deal as the Ike Diogu trade. And if you're a Warriors fan, you probably won't be looking back fondly.


*

It puts a slight damper on the trade... but that's how I've always looked at it. Giving up Diogu is the only part of the trade I regret. And, still, he's got a long way to go before he becomes a star.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 10:27 am
Thanks for posting it, #32.

I know most people don't like him much, but Kawakami makes a reference at Hollinger's article in his blog:

* The SHHH, Diogu’s Going to Be a Star Version: Propulgated by the respected John Hollinger of espn.com, it’s based on the statistical formulation that Diogu has been amazingly productive in his short stints over the past two seasons.

According to Hollinger, Diogu is the best player in this deal. By a lot. And Murphy is a good player, too.

-My problem with this version: OK, you know my feelings on Murphy. For every stat Hollinger tosses out about Murphy’s production, I can toss out three or four about how terrible the team always played when was out there.

I could point out how the FG% was worse and the Warrior opponents FG% was better EVERY TIME Murphy played.

But I like Hollinger’s stuff. I like stats. I use them all the time. I read Hollinger all the time.

One gaping, huge hole in Hollinger’s work: He has no statistical measurement for defense in his individual player evaluations. None. Well now! Slight hole. Tiny hole.

Also: Rating a player’s value strictly on what HE does in a per-minute basis when he’s on the floor tilts everything to a one-trick pony player like Diogu, especially when he has a coach like Nelson.

Nelson only played Diogu when he thought he had a mismatch, only kept him on the floor when Diogu played OK, and yanked him immediately when he screwed up. There were few chances for Diogu to go 2-for-10 with three turnovers. If Diogu went 0-for-2 with a turnover, OUT.

So of course his individual stats, relative to other players like him, would look OK. He only played long runs when he was playing excellently.

Plus, the killer defensive Diogu screw-ups… DON’T SHOW UP IN HOLLINGER’S STATS.

If Indiana is basing it on this kind of reasoning–that Diogu was being held back from greatness by Nelson–they are in for some interesting days ahead.

Unless I’m wrong. And other stats (Warriors shot much more accurately when Diogu was off the floor) tell me I’m not.


I'm just posting this here because it's a direct answer to Hollinjerk's article. You all know I love Ike...
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 11:34 am
Wow, dude... mark this day down.

Tim Kawakami is absolutely right.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 11:40 am
Hollinger is the same guy who started the mini-boomlet of DWade for mvp. He is a numbers geek who would rather crunch PER than actually watch the game. I love Ike and do think he will be a force in the league. However, to assert that Murphy was a better player than Harrington this year is ludicrous in the extreme and shows an infatuation with his stats. kawakami also makes a great point on defense. I think he is harsh on Diogu and drinking the Nelson koolaid a little too much, but on the top of the trade, Harrington/Jackson easily trump Murphy/Dunleavy as anyone who actually watched the Ws would attest. As for Ike, he is a classic lowpost scorer, and Nelson doesn't want that, so he was wasted here. And contrary to what Hollinjerk says, Ike won't playing alongside O'Neal, he'll be his backup. He'll still get 20 minutes a game now, unless Carlisle puts Murphy ahead of him. I hope Ike does get a chance to shine, because he's a talneted kid who deserves to play a lot more than he played for the Ws. However, on the big picture, there is no contest between the top 2 in the trade. Hollinjerk reminds me of the guy who is showing someone a beautiful view and says "if you think that is good, you should see the pictures!"
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 2:30 pm
It is very rare that I agree with Kawakami but here is one of those occasions. I think this little food chain best describes how I feel about the intelligence levels of the writers in question:

Hollinger < Kawakami < Sack of bricks
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 9:48 pm
I agree. Diogu is the real gem of this trade. He just may turn out to be the 1st round pick we thought he could be. I'm not suprised by these articles because anyone on this board could type one up too even if Diogu was traded somewhere.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 19, 2007 10:59 am
xBayAreaWarriorx wrote:I agree. Diogu is the real gem of this trade. He just may turn out to be the 1st round pick we thought he could be. I'm not suprised by these articles because anyone on this board could type one up too even if Diogu was traded somewhere.

yeah, I see Harrington, Jackson and Diogu as being the 3 players worth having in this trade and we got the 2 current best. Very bizarre that Donnie Walsh said he traded Al because he was a natural 4 and Jermaine was already there. But he traded for 2 more 4s! Curious...I am guessing he moves Murphy soon...
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 21, 2007 8:00 am
Diogu will be missed and though I reckon he will be moved to another team (good for him because he wil never be anything in Indiana), Harrington and SJackson should improve the team immediately
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 21, 2007 12:49 pm
coltraning wrote:
xBayAreaWarriorx wrote:I agree. Diogu is the real gem of this trade. He just may turn out to be the 1st round pick we thought he could be. I'm not suprised by these articles because anyone on this board could type one up too even if Diogu was traded somewhere.

yeah, I see Harrington, Jackson and Diogu as being the 3 players worth having in this trade and we got the 2 current best. Very bizarre that Donnie Walsh said he traded Al because he was a natural 4 and Jermaine was already there. But he traded for 2 more 4s! Curious...I am guessing he moves Murphy soon...


Yeah, I think Sarunas will be the sleeper of the trade. Everyone is saying how well Dun and Murphy should do in a new system and away from the booing and how Harrington and Jackson are just players to please the coach with their better athletism, but now Baron has a true backup. This kid knows how to light it up. I really like this kid, I hope he pans out well once he gets the offense in his head.
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 21, 2007 1:12 pm
xBayAreaWarriorx wrote:Yeah, I think Sarunas will be the sleeper of the trade. Everyone is saying how well Dun and Murphy should do in a new system and away from the booing and how Harrington and Jackson are just players to please the coach with their better athletism, but now Baron has a true backup. This kid knows how to light it up. I really like this kid, I hope he pans out well once he gets the offense in his head.


Forget the kid comments, XBay... Saras is already 30. :wink:
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 22, 2007 5:20 am
TMC wrote:
xBayAreaWarriorx wrote:Yeah, I think Sarunas will be the sleeper of the trade. Everyone is saying how well Dun and Murphy should do in a new system and away from the booing and how Harrington and Jackson are just players to please the coach with their better athletism, but now Baron has a true backup. This kid knows how to light it up. I really like this kid, I hope he pans out well once he gets the offense in his head.


Forget the kid comments, XBay... Saras is already 30. :wink:



Still, he adds experience and a proven ability at PG, really great to have for a team lokking to make the playoffs!
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