I think that nine is about right. They got better, but not enough to put them into that next class of teams. Next year is their year.

I'd go with 8-9. They're too good to win less than that, but I also think they're a year away from being contenders for the division. I can see them making the playoffs as a wildcard at 9 wins, tho.

I will agree with you that the Niners have improved however I think it is difficult to say that "OK, they were 7-9 last year and they have improved so that should mean 8-10 wins".

The reason I say this is that I believe the Niners record was much better than their actual team. I just don't think they were as good as their record.

They had a -114 point differential. Only the Raiders and Bucs had a worse point differential than the Niners. In fact the 4-14 Browns had a better point differential.

This point differential was the WORST point differential for ANY 7-9 team in the history of the league. In fact only ONE 6-10 team has ever had a worse point differential.

The Niners won a lot of close games and got manhandled in their other games. While I give them credit for winning those close games, the fact remains that they just could not compete in other games.

This stat in itself does not mean they CANT be a 9-10 win team, but certainly can not be ignored either.

The 49ers do have trouble winning those tough games, but to win the division, you need to beat your division teams. One by one, I'll go through them.

Seattle: Very good team, but with some serious question marks at main positions. Can Matt Hasslebeck come back and play well? Can Shaun Alexander be what he was two years ago? I see Seattle as the only team in the league that can beat the 49ers out in the division. The 49ers do own them though.

St. Louis: Great offense, little to no defense. Defense is what wins you games, and without any, I dont see them winning more than 7 games. I do love Steven Jackson, and Mark Bulger is still a great QB, but Bruce is getting older, they have had a lot of question marks of defense, and I just dont think that they will be a challenge this year.

Arizona: Great passing game, okay running game, less defense than St. Louis. Enough said... They should win 6 games, and they are two years away from making an impact.

That said, this is what I think the division will go:

San Francisco: 9-7
Seattle: 9-7
St. Louis: 7-9
Arizona: 6-10

Fair enough.

going to the Niners and chargers preseason game tonight... I know it means nothing but hey its good to see them run some live plays =)

I'm with ya. We have season tickets, so we went to both of the home preseason games, and, even though its meaningless, it is still a lot of fun, and I have a great time every time we go out.

You get to see Bryant Young out there, too.

Taking a look at our schedule...

vs Arizona
@ St. Louis
@ Pittsburgh
vs Seattle
vs Baltimore
BYE
@ NY Giants
vs New Orleans
@ Atlanta
@ Seattle
vs St. Louis
@ Arizona
@ Carolina
vs Minnesota
vs Cincinnati
vs Tampa Bay on NBC!!!
@ Cleveland

The schedule doesn't seem challenging. We have to finish over .500, there's no excuse. You'd figure to beat ARI and STL at least once or sweep the season series with at least one of those two. You'd want a split against the 'Hawks. Other than Baltimore and Carolina, there's really I find intimidating in our schedule. But I think we could still finish better than 8-9 wins. Heck, we're in line to win the division. It'll all come down to whether Alex is down to take over, Frank stays Frank, the offense proves it's upgraded, and the defense wasn't the defense that let any team score on them.

I'm going to do a week-by-week projection:

1. Win
2. Loss (@ St Louis)
3. Loss (@ Pitt.)
4. Win
5. Loss (vs Balt.)
6. Bye
7. Win
8. Win
9. Win
10. Loss (@ Seattle)
11. Win
12. Win
13. Loss (@ Carolina)
14. Win
15. Loss (vs Cincy)
16. Win
17. Win

That is 10-6. If we can go 3-2 over the first five games, we will make the playoffs. If we cant, we wont.

Xbay, dont get your hopes up for that Tampa game. They are going to change that, and there is no way that that will be on national TV.

sfsfsfgiants wrote:Seattle: Very good team, but with some serious question marks at main positions. Can Matt Hasslebeck come back and play well? Can Shaun Alexander be what he was two years ago? I see Seattle as the only team in the league that can beat the 49ers out in the division. The 49ers do own them though.

HUH??? Yeah, the Niners swept the Seahawks last year but the Seahawks swept the Niners for 3 straight years prior to last year. Might want to revalute the who own who line.

I think you are underestimating the Hawks at 9-7. That was the record they had last year when they did not have the reigning MVP for almost the entire season, and Hass for about 5 games. They also struggled to find a replacement at LG for Hutch.

They will be a much improved team this year especially on the defensive side of the ball. That combined with almost being unbeatable at home spells more than 9-7. I think they are probably more like an 11-5 team.

badabing8888 wrote:

sfsfsfgiants wrote:Seattle: Very good team, but with some serious question marks at main positions. Can Matt Hasslebeck come back and play well? Can Shaun Alexander be what he was two years ago? I see Seattle as the only team in the league that can beat the 49ers out in the division. The 49ers do own them though.

HUH??? Yeah, the Niners swept the Seahawks last year but the Seahawks swept the Niners for 3 straight years prior to last year. Might want to revalute the who own who line.

Yeah, but when you guys were beating us, we were playing Tim Rattay with Kevin Barlow and Brandon "cant catch the ball" Lloyd. Since we rebuilt the team around Mike Nolan, we have beat you guys pretty good. Alex Smith has looked good against you, Frank Gore has dominated, and our defense has stepped up since the Dennis Erickson era.

badabing8888 wrote:I think you are underestimating the Hawks at 9-7. That was the record they had last year when they did not have the reigning MVP for almost the entire season, and Hass for about 5 games. They also struggled to find a replacement at LG for Hutch.

They will be a much improved team this year especially on the defensive side of the ball. That combined with almost being unbeatable at home spells more than 9-7. I think they are probably more like an 11-5 team.

You have a year older Alexander, who is also coming off an injury. You have Hasslebeck who is going to be good for one or two more years.

I know that you are a Seahawks fan, but you have to admit that this has to be your year, or you are going to be taken over. Kind of like the Raiders in the Super Bowl season they had, you knew that they were about through. The Hawks are on the way down, while the Cards and the 49ers are on the way up.

Like I said, you guys are the only team that is better than us in the West. I'm not trashing you guys at all.

My prediction is 9.

sfsfsfgiants wrote:

badabing8888 wrote:

sfsfsfgiants wrote:Seattle: Very good team, but with some serious question marks at main positions. Can Matt Hasslebeck come back and play well? Can Shaun Alexander be what he was two years ago? I see Seattle as the only team in the league that can beat the 49ers out in the division. The 49ers do own them though.

HUH??? Yeah, the Niners swept the Seahawks last year but the Seahawks swept the Niners for 3 straight years prior to last year. Might want to revalute the who own who line.

Yeah, but when you guys were beating us, we were playing Tim Rattay with Kevin Barlow and Brandon "cant catch the ball" Lloyd. Since we rebuilt the team around Mike Nolan, we have beat you guys pretty good. Alex Smith has looked good against you, Frank Gore has dominated, and our defense has stepped up since the Dennis Erickson era.

When you have lost 75% of the games over a 4 year period against an opponent you just cant say you 'own" them. Even if you just count the Alex Smith/Nolan era you are 2-2.

sfsfsfgiants wrote:

badabing8888 wrote:I think you are underestimating the Hawks at 9-7. That was the record they had last year when they did not have the reigning MVP for almost the entire season, and Hass for about 5 games. They also struggled to find a replacement at LG for Hutch.

They will be a much improved team this year especially on the defensive side of the ball. That combined with almost being unbeatable at home spells more than 9-7. I think they are probably more like an 11-5 team.

You have a year older Alexander, who is also coming off an injury. You have Hasslebeck who is going to be good for one or two more years.

I know that you are a Seahawks fan, but you have to admit that this has to be your year, or you are going to be taken over. Kind of like the Raiders in the Super Bowl season they had, you knew that they were about through. The Hawks are on the way down, while the Cards and the 49ers are on the way up.

Like I said, you guys are the only team that is better than us in the West. I'm not trashing you guys at all.

I will agree that the offense is starting to age, but RB's are one of the easiest positions to replace, and Hass has at least 3 more solid years left. I do agree that you need to make EVERY year your year when you have a chance. The Hawks have won 3 straight division titles... that wont last forever.

But they do have some very good young pieces on D.