D4rk 0ne wrote: bada wrote:
D4rk 0ne wrote:Mathematically speaking (i.e. based on all possible permutations and combinations) the chance that we actually pick 4th is relatively low. There is about a 35% chance that we pick 5th, and a 38% chance that we pick in the top 3. There's a 10% chance that we stay at #4, and 17% that we pick 6th/7th.
Chance that we move up: 38.11%
Chance that we stay at #4: 10.00%
Chance that we move down: 51.89%
From the '95-'96 season through the '02-'03 season, here is what happened for each team that was slotted #4 overall before the lottery:
- 1 team remained at #4 (MIL, '96)
- 1 team moved up to #2 (VAN, '00)
- 1 team moved down to #6 (VAN, '01)
- 5 teams moved down to #5
So looking at that history, combined with a >50% chance of moving down . . . don't be too upset if we end up picking 5th overall.
thanks for that Dark. Probability math is WAY too complex for me but I think your statistics are based on the "normal" amount of ping pong balls a 4th seed would have. We have less than normal because of the tie.
but I think those numbers are VERY close to reality. Odds are we wont stay at 4. Hopefully we move up but if we move down then hopefully it will only be one spot. This is why the winning this toss was so very important.
Oh yeah, I totally forgot about that. You're right, this is based on the normal amount of balls for a #4 pick, not a tie.
oh good... could have stuck my foot in my mouth on that one because like I said, probability is way too advanced for me.
But your numbers are very helpful as a guideline as the odds are against us remaining at 4.
The ONLY way we stay at 4 is if ALL three teams ahead of us (NJ, Minn, and Sac) ALL get their numbers drawn. Not likely.
We probably are looking at picking 5th. Although sure would be nice to move into the top 3. Come on Stern, rig this thing in our favor!!!