No Excuses For What Nelson Is Doing.....The Numbers =

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Franchise Player
Posts: 7481
» Sun Nov 30, 2008 11:31 am
Settle in for a nice Sunday afternoon read fellas.........this has taken me about 2 hours straight to put together.

Right, first, Im not calling him Nellie anymore, as that was a name used in a friendly sense, so f*ck that now.

For the last few games, Ive been wanting to pull together some numbers of how we play/what happens to the team when the young fellas, specifically Brandan, Randolph and not quite so young Turiaf, are in and playing well.

First, I want to give you the "+/-" stats for the 3 players in question and the main guys above them, I know it isnt always the best indicator of how well a guy is doing but in this case..........with the FACT that we play our best ball when these guys are in, I think its pretty relevant (this is for the whole season by the way) =

Average Affect On Games.

Brandan = - 0.87
Randolph = + 0.36
Turiaf = + 0.1
S-Jax = - 4.81
Mags = - 4.5
Crawford = - 13.25! (Yep, you read that right)


Can you f*cking believe those?

So now I want to run through our games this year, and pick out the key points, aswell as pointing out the players I want to talk about that did/didnt play.

New Orleans @ Home = 103-108 Loss.

18 Assists and 13 Turnovers.
Shot 43.4% from the field.
Brandan = DNP.
Randolph = DNP.

@ Toronto = 108-112 OT Loss.

20 Assists and 18 Turnovers.
Brandan played 7:43, was 1-2 from the field and 2-2 from the line.
Randolph = DNP.

@ New Jersey = 105-97 Win.

18 Assists and 16 Turnovers.
Seriously dont know how we won this game...........N.J were just slightly worse than us.
Brandan played 6:31, had 1 block and no shots of any kind.
Randolph = DNP.

@ Memphis = 79-90 Loss.

15 Assists and 12 Turnovers.
Shot 34.4% from the field, including 3-20 from 3 for 15%.
Brandan played 9:53, had one shot and missed it, 4 boards and 2 blocks.
Randolph debuts finally with a 1:27 donut in all catagories.

Denver @ Home = 111-101 Win.

21 Assists and 10 Turnovers.
Turiaf starts and has 7 points, 4 boards, 2 assists, 2 blocks in 19:53 minutes.
Brandan played 32:04 minutes, had 18 points, 13 boards and 3 blocks, on 7-9 from the field (has a +24 affect to the game)
Randolph = DNP.
(See the difference? and a good win against a good team)

Memphis @ Home = 104-109 Loss.

18 Assists and 12 Turnovers.
Out-rebounded 55-41.
Brandan plays 20:46, 2-5 from the field, 2-2 from the line, 2 boards, 3 blocks.
Randolph plays 17:03, 4-8 from the field, 7 boards, 1 block (has a +9 affect to the game)

@ Sacremento = 98-115 Loss.

19 Assists and 16 Turnovers.
Shot 41.1% from the field.
Brandan plays 24:16, has 10 points, 4 boards, 3 blocks.
Randolph plays 13:30, has 11 points, 7 boards, 1 block.
Turiaf plays 1:08, has 1 block.

Minnesota @ Home = 113-110 OT Win.

16 Assists and 19 Turnovers.
Brandan plays 33:32, has 13 points, 7 boards (has +7 affect on the game)
Randolph plays 20:54, has 4 points, 8 board, 2 blocks (has +8 affect on game)
Turiaf plays 27:24, has 9 points, 3 boards and 3 blocks.

Detroit @ Home = 102-107 Loss.

20 Assists and 15 Turnovers.
Brandan plays 17:24, has 9 points on 4-5 shooting, 6 boards, 2 blocks (has +4 affect on game when Mags had -15)
Turiaf plays 11:36, has 6 points, 2 boards, 2 assists and a block (has +5 affect on game)
Randolph = DNP.

@ Clippers = 121-103 Win (We know why though right?)

29 Assists and 12 Turnovers.......funny what happens when you find the open/hot man huh?
Morrow plays 41:54, 37 points on 15-20 shooting, 4-5 from 3, 11 rebounds.
Randolph plays 8:57 has 5 points, 2 boards.
Brandan = DNP.
Turiaf plays 11:46 with 5 boards and a block.

Portland @ Home = 111-106 Win.

26 Assists and 21 Turnovers.
Morrow plays 35:52, has 25 points on 8-12 shooting, 4-5 from 3.
Brandan plays 8:04, has 4 points and 3 boards.
Randolph = DNP.
Turiaf plays 10:30, has 2 boards and 2 blocks.

Chicago @ Home = 110-115 Loss.

22 Assists and 15 Turnovers (S-Jax with 8 of those TO's for a -11 affect on the game)
Brandan plays 9:59, has 4 points on 3 shots and 2 blocks.
Randolph plays 13:13, has 10 points, 9 boards and 4 blocks.
Turiaf plays 7:24, has 4 boards and a block.

@ Philadelphia = 81-89 Loss.

20 Assists and 18 Turnovers.
Brandan plays 14:53, has 10 points on 5-7, 2 boards and a block (has +10 affect on game)
Randolph plays 28:18, has 6 points, 4 boards, 3 assists, 2 blocks.
Turiaf plays 21:33, 2 points, 3 boards, 5 blocks.
Team with all 3 in at same time, was +11.

@ Washington = 100-124 Loss to a coach-less 1 and 10 team.

26 Assists and 20 Turnovers.
Crawford has -18 affect on game.
Brandan plays 16:05, has 10 points on 5-6 shooting, 5 boards and a block.
Randolph plays 19:29 has 2 points, 4 boards, 2 blocks.
Turiaf plays 9:32, has 2 points, 2 boards and a block.

@ Boston = 111-119 Loss.

21 Assists and 11 Turnovers.
Crawford has -17 affect on game.
Out-rebounded 47-34.
Brandan plays 12:52, has 2 points and 4 boards.
Turiaf plays 22:01, has 2 points, 2 boards, 5 blocks (has +3 affect on game)
Randolph plays 1:11 for a donut in all catagories.

@ Cleveland = 97-112 Loss.

13 Assists and 14 Turnovers.
Mags has -26 affect on game.
Brandan plays 19:55, has 8 points, 4 boards, 2 steals and a block (the only prime time player to have a postitive affect at +2)
Randolph plays 16:47, has 6 points, 7 boards, 2 blocks (has +2 affect on game)

@ New York = 125-138 Loss.

21 Assists and 14 Turnovers.
Randolph plays 11:38, has 4 points on 2-2, 4 boards and a block (has +2 affect on game)
Turiaf plays 9:58, has 2 points, 2 boards and a block (has +8 affect on game)
Brandan plays 6:04, has 4 points, 1 board and a block.
.
.
.
.
So, what do you all see from that?..........the turnovers vs assists are quite sickening to me, then the obvious difference to when Brandan/Randolph/Turiaf play and how the team does is just ridiculous.

Hope this makes sense and shows you guys from a numbers point of view, what is going on, and what SHOULD be happening.

Rookie
Posts: 30
» Sun Nov 30, 2008 2:05 pm
wow, props on the research. it's too bad nelson can't read numbers.
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All Star
Posts: 1335
» Sun Nov 30, 2008 2:21 pm
yeah james i respect this post good research

in that chat we had yesterday when you mention how little time turiaf has been getting the numbers he gets in that limited period is pretty good,it would be a scary thought if he got real time.

All Star
Posts: 3177
» Sun Nov 30, 2008 2:29 pm
Nice, most have been alot work tho.

WoW i really did not think our Assist/turnover was that bad. Seeing it on paper now makes me underline our lack of point guard, and that a certian person has the ball in there hand way too much. In one game we turned it over 19 times to 16 assists. Seeing it know

We have played so reckless.

And Jamal Crawford ohh WoW. -13.25

And for the low shooting percentage we all know who to point the fingers at.

We are having problems on defense, i notice the block shots stats on AR, B-Wright, and Turiaf, not only the blocks but i know that they also alter shoots. But why play them. Lets just continue with our low percentage shooting and turnovers. If you got it why not use it.

Role Player
Posts: 243
» Sun Nov 30, 2008 2:45 pm
Great post bigs.
So im still for a boycott of the games, but for any baydestrians we need to all go to a game and start some chant like they did in New York.
"FIRE NELSON!"
"FIRE ROWELL!"
"NO MORE SMALL BALL!"
"9 DOLLER BEERS ARE JUST TOO EXPENSIVE!"
witch ever one strikes us as appropriat at the time. Then we go back to not going to the games.
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Franchise Player
Posts: 7481
» Sun Nov 30, 2008 2:47 pm
No problem fellas.

Makes it look even worse............and even more baffling, as to why Brandan/Randolph/Turiaf dont play more huh. :roll:

To be honest, Im not really getting excited about anything else this year, no matter what, as I know that Nelson will just undermind it and f*ck it up.............so whats the point feeling annoyed and frustrated all the time? well...........Im sure I still will. :cry:
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All Star
Posts: 3040
» Sun Nov 30, 2008 3:50 pm
Bigs, like I mentioned in a previous post elsewhere, most of the time the players off the bench are playing lesser defenders. For instance, in the Cleveland game, it is true that our subs outscored their subs in the 4th quarter, so they did much better than the starters, right? Much better plus minus. Not so fast, bro. a few players named Lebron James, Mo Williams and Ilgauskas sat out the 4th quarter. That made just a bit of difference. All I am saying is you need to compare apples to apples. Brandan Wright schooling Patrick O Bryant is not terribly meaningful. If he schools Kevin Garnett that is another discussion.

Also, anytime someone else blows a coverage that counts as a minus on the plus minus, regardless of how well you are playing your man. 2 or 3 years ago, Kobe was doing worse in plus minus than several of his teammates, but I don't think anyone would seriously assert he was their best player by far. The meaningful stat is how does the man you are guarding do against you compared to their regular averages?

Last year, Biedrins' man exceeded his season average when guarded by Beans by 5 points a game. These stats are on 82games.com and are pretty interesting. So my questions would be, how does Crawford or Jackson or Mags do defending player A versus the league average, and how does Wright do (for instance) defending the SAME player Mags does...Even then we need to be careful in making a conclusion. One reason players tend to exceed their averages against Ws players is because Nelson plays one of the fastest paces in the league. The faster the pace, the more shots, etc...that's why it is a lot more complex than plus minus might tell you. Another couple of good stats to look at are efficiency and PER...

That said, many of Nelson's decisions truly mystify me, and I have never understood DNPs following great games. He seems to have a way shorter leash for bigs than smalls. Morrow got copious minutes 5 games in a row after his two breakout games, whereas young bigs don't get those chances much.

All Star
Posts: 1910
» Sun Nov 30, 2008 3:57 pm
The numbers can be argued many ways, but I'll agree that the Warriors can't both be horrible and not play Wright and Randolph. It just doesn't make any sense.

Just as a general reminder, we can't really take too much pride in the Denver win without AI or Billups.

I don't really know what else to say at this point. Losing games to the Knicks and the Wizards is bad. So bad it's almost not worth analyzing.
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Rookie
Posts: 155
» Sun Nov 30, 2008 5:36 pm
Yep the numbers don't lie Crawford hurting the team more than helping
now what to do with his huge contract cause i don't want to see him here next year.

All Star
Posts: 2956
» Sun Nov 30, 2008 5:42 pm
Nice work bigs. Why is everyone afraid of putting Jackson on the bench? Randolph couldn't possibly tiub it over more than Jackson. He also is going to rebound and block shots. no team can win with 3 volume shooters in their starting line-up (Jackson, Magette, Crawford). Crawford is not an improvement over CJ.
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Rookie
Posts: 155
» Sun Nov 30, 2008 5:49 pm
CJ is improving every game. He plays hard and one of the best shooters, i hardly see him miss a shot.
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All Star
Posts: 1768
» Sun Nov 30, 2008 6:25 pm
i already mentioned about play more rookies in the earlier season than veteran...we can't go really far with this team(championship :mrgreen: )...we need to develop young players for the future but in nellie head is about winning record and beat D.Wilkins...

now he screw everything and i still enjoy W's at home but not in the stadium...

it's hurt to see them lost everytime i saw on TV...

well, there is cohan team not Fans team...
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Role Player
Posts: 227
» Sun Nov 30, 2008 7:31 pm
Nice work man very good insight
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All Star
Posts: 2557
» Sun Nov 30, 2008 9:14 pm
coltraning wrote:Bigs, like I mentioned in a previous post elsewhere, most of the time the players off the bench are playing lesser defenders. For instance, in the Cleveland game, it is true that our subs outscored their subs in the 4th quarter, so they did much better than the starters, right? Much better plus minus. Not so fast, bro. a few players named Lebron James, Mo Williams and Ilgauskas sat out the 4th quarter. That made just a bit of difference. All I am saying is you need to compare apples to apples. Brandan Wright schooling Patrick O Bryant is not terribly meaningful. If he schools Kevin Garnett that is another discussion.

Also, anytime someone else blows a coverage that counts as a minus on the plus minus, regardless of how well you are playing your man. 2 or 3 years ago, Kobe was doing worse in plus minus than several of his teammates, but I don't think anyone would seriously assert he was their best player by far. The meaningful stat is how does the man you are guarding do against you compared to their regular averages?

Last year, Biedrins' man exceeded his season average when guarded by Beans by 5 points a game. These stats are on 82games.com and are pretty interesting. So my questions would be, how does Crawford or Jackson or Mags do defending player A versus the league average, and how does Wright do (for instance) defending the SAME player Mags does...Even then we need to be careful in making a conclusion. One reason players tend to exceed their averages against Ws players is because Nelson plays one of the fastest paces in the league. The faster the pace, the more shots, etc...that's why it is a lot more complex than plus minus might tell you. Another couple of good stats to look at are efficiency and PER...

That said, many of Nelson's decisions truly mystify me, and I have never understood DNPs following great games. He seems to have a way shorter leash for bigs than smalls. Morrow got copious minutes 5 games in a row after his two breakout games, whereas young bigs don't get those chances much.


I was going to make a post to this effect, but coltraning almost said what I had to say word-for-word.

Everybody remember how good Ike Diogu looked in limited minutes? Remember Michael Pietrus tearing up the Kings in his rookie year? There's a difference between how a player performs against different qualities of players. I think that exhibit A of how garbage players are easier to beat is a Minnesota game from a year or two ago when we were up 40 with 10 minutes to go and Ricky Davis ended up scoring about 25 points on garbage players in that span of ten minutes. I think that Anthony Randolph is the real deal, but Brandan Wright really has yet to show me even a glimmer of basketball talent, and Ronny Turiaf is hardly starter-level.
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All Star
Posts: 3074
» Sun Nov 30, 2008 10:30 pm
While colt and pest are both right, the cause for all this frustration is coming from the failure of the main rotation. During a game, a good coach should be able to mix things up if things aren't going well during a particular stretch. Say the small ball lineup is getting killed on the boards: wouldn't it be smart to throw in a Wright, Turiaf, or Randolph to mix it up?

Also, the lesser player argument is true as well, but it's a known fact that right now the guys that ARE on the floor are not getting it done against the A-level competition. And Wright and Randolph are producing; however, they HAVE been playing the other team's main rotation players, but just for spot minutes. It would only make sense to bump up their minutes, especially when the first unit is struggling, if they produce in limited minutes.

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