West Playoff Race - Remaining Schedule Comparison

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Starting Lineup
Posts: 528
» Sat Mar 29, 2008 8:35 pm
With the win tonight, Denver now has the tiebreaker over GS as well, so the Ws need to finish a game ahead of either Denver or Dallas to beat them out.

The way the schedules shake out, I think the Ws have a much better chance of finishing ahead of Dallas at this point.

Rookie
Posts: 124
» Sat Mar 29, 2008 8:39 pm
there is another game against denver and 2 against dallas

Starting Lineup
Posts: 528
» Sat Mar 29, 2008 8:44 pm
mattiri wrote:there is another game against denver and 2 against dallas


The tiebreakers are already set no matter what the outcome of the games left against Denver and Dallas, if that's your point. No matter what the Ws do, they can't get the tiebreakers (Denver and Dallas are guaranteed to have better conference records if they end up tied with the Ws).

If your point is that the Ws can catch both teams because they are playing them, I agree - since they have 2 games against Dallas, and Dallas has a tougher schedule left than Denver, that's why I say that they have a better chance of catching the Mavs.

Starting Lineup
Posts: 528
» Sat Mar 29, 2008 9:25 pm
Realistically at this point, the only teams that the Warriors can catch would be Dallas or Denver. If you do the math, even if the Warriors go 8-2 in their last 10 games, that puts them at 52-30. In order for the Ws to finish ahead of any of the teams outside of Dallas/Denver, that would meant that the teams would have to finish with these records:

New Orleans (49-22) -- would have to finish 3-8 to end up 52-30
San Antonio (50-23) -- would have to finish 2-7 to end up 52-30
Lakers (49-24) -- would have to finish 3-6 to end up 52-30
Utah (48-25) -- would have to finish 4-5 to end up 52-30
Houston (49-23) -- would have to finish 3-7 to end up 52-30
Phoenix (49-24) -- would have to finish 3-6 to end up 52-30

It's unreasonable to expect any of these teams to have such a bad finish. So the Ws are pretty much in the position of having to finish at least one game ahead of either Denver or Dallas to make the playoffs.

I think they have a great chance to do it, but it will be down to the wire.

Starting Lineup
Posts: 528
» Sat Mar 29, 2008 9:34 pm
To follow on my last post, here's the remaining schedules for GS, Denver and Dallas:

Code: Select all
Golden State                Denver                Dallas
3/30 - Dallas             3/31 @ Phoenix       3/30  @ Warriors
4/1 - @ San Antonio       4/1  Phoenix         3/31  @ Clippers
4/2 - @ Dallas            4/5  Sacramento      4/2  Warriors
4/4 - @ Memphis           4/6 @ Seattle        4/4 @ Lakers
4/6 - @ New Orleans       4/8 @ Clippers       4/6 @ Phoenix
4/8 - Sacramento          4/10 @ Golden St     4/8 Seattle
4/10 - Denver             4/12 @ Utah          4/10 Utah
4/12 - Clippers           4/13  Houston        4/12 @ Portland
4/14 - @ Phoenix          4/15  Memphis        4/13 @ Seattle
4/16 - Seattle                                 4/16  NO



Since the Ws need to finish ahead of either team, I think it will take a 7-3 finish by the Ws, or at worst, a 6-4 finish (including two wins against Dallas). Very doable, but they can't afford any missteps down the stretch.
Last edited by hoopitup on Mon Mar 31, 2008 6:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Starting Lineup
Posts: 528
» Sun Mar 30, 2008 5:38 pm
Don't look now, but Denver actually has a chance to catch Utah. It's a longshot, but with Utah losing to Minnesota today there are only two losses separating the two teams. Denver has one more game against Utah (at Utah, though), and if the Nuggets win that game then they would have the tiebreaker.

Even though the schedule heavily favors Utah in terms of number of home games they have left (5 H, 3 A for Utah versus 4H, 5A for Denver), Utah has 7 of their last 9 games against teams over .500, while Denver only has 5.

That would be quite a story - from being out of the playoffs to the 4th seed in less than 3 weeks (if it happens....)

Starting Lineup
Posts: 528
» Sun Mar 30, 2008 9:17 pm
Updated with Sunday's games. 3 way tie for 7th place, but the Ws fall to 9th on the tiebreakers. At the top, New Orleans and San Antonio keep winning, while the Lakers barely escape with an OT win over Washington.

Code: Select all
Team          Record    GB    GR    HGR    AGR  GR vs .500  B2B

New Orleans    50-22     0    10      4      6          5     4
San Antonio    51-23     0     8      4      4          6     1
Lakers         50-24   1.0     9      6      3          6     0
Utah           48-26   3.0     8      5      3          7     1
Houston        49-24   1.5     9      3      6          4     2
Phoenix        49-24   1.5     9      5      4          6     2
Denver         45-28   5.5     9      4      5          5     3
Dallas         45-28   5.5     9      4      5          6     2
---------------------------------------------------------------
Golden St      45-28   5.5     9      4      5          5     1





March 31:
Washington @ Utah
Denver @ Phoenix
Dallas @ Clippers

April 1:
New Orleans @ Orlando
Golden State @ San Antonio
Phoenix @ Denver
Houston @ Sacramento

Starting Lineup
Posts: 528
» Sun Mar 30, 2008 10:21 pm
hoopitup wrote:
mattiri wrote:there is another game against denver and 2 against dallas


The tiebreakers are already set no matter what the outcome of the games left against Denver and Dallas, if that's your point. No matter what the Ws do, they can't get the tiebreakers (Denver and Dallas are guaranteed to have better conference records if they end up tied with the Ws).

If your point is that the Ws can catch both teams because they are playing them, I agree - since they have 2 games against Dallas, and Dallas has a tougher schedule left than Denver, that's why I say that they have a better chance of catching the Mavs.


One clarification on the tiebreakers - the Ws would lose out on a two way tiebreaker with either Dallas or Denver. But, if the Ws can win both games remaining against Denver and Dallas, then the Ws and Denver would win in a 3-way tiebreaker, and Dallas would be odd team out.
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Hall of Famer
Posts: 18315
» Mon Mar 31, 2008 3:09 am
hoopitup wrote:
hoopitup wrote:
mattiri wrote:there is another game against denver and 2 against dallas


The tiebreakers are already set no matter what the outcome of the games left against Denver and Dallas, if that's your point. No matter what the Ws do, they can't get the tiebreakers (Denver and Dallas are guaranteed to have better conference records if they end up tied with the Ws).

If your point is that the Ws can catch both teams because they are playing them, I agree - since they have 2 games against Dallas, and Dallas has a tougher schedule left than Denver, that's why I say that they have a better chance of catching the Mavs.


One clarification on the tiebreakers - the Ws would lose out on a two way tiebreaker with either Dallas or Denver. But, if the Ws can win both games remaining against Denver and Dallas, then the Ws and Denver would win in a 3-way tiebreaker, and Dallas would be odd team out.


I thought that was the case, but I wasn't totally sure. Thanks for clarifying it, hoopitup. :thumbright:

Starting Lineup
Posts: 528
» Mon Mar 31, 2008 10:12 pm
As of Monday night - thank you Phoenix for fighting back and beating Denver!

Code: Select all
Team          Record    GB    GR    HGR    AGR  GR vs .500  B2B

New Orleans    50-22     0    10      4      6          5     4
San Antonio    51-23     0     8      4      4          6     1
Lakers         50-24   1.0     9      6      3          6     0
Utah           49-26   2.5     7      4      3          6     0
Phoenix        50-24   1.0     8      4      4          5     2
Houston        49-24   1.5     9      3      6          4     2
Dallas         46-28   5.0     8      4      4          6     1
Golden St      45-28   5.5     9      4      5          5     1
---------------------------------------------------------------
Denver         45-29   6.0     8      4      4          4     3



And the udpated Head-to-Head Schedule Comparison between GS, Dallas, and Denver:

Code: Select all
Golden State (45-28)      Denver (45-29)       Dallas (46-28)
3/30 - Dallas  W          3/31 @ Phoenix L     3/30  @ Warriors L
4/1 - @ San Antonio       4/1  Phoenix         3/31  @ Clippers W
4/2 - @ Dallas            4/5  Sacramento      4/2  Warriors
4/4 - @ Memphis           4/6 @ Seattle        4/4 @ Lakers
4/6 - @ New Orleans       4/8 @ Clippers       4/6 @ Phoenix
4/8 - Sacramento          4/10 @ Golden St     4/8 Seattle
4/10 - Denver             4/12 @ Utah          4/10 Utah
4/12 - Clippers           4/13  Houston        4/12 @ Portland
4/14 - @ Phoenix          4/15  Memphis        4/13 @ Seattle
4/16 - Seattle                                 4/16  NO




April 1:
New Orleans @ Orlando
Golden State @ San Antonio
Phoenix @ Denver
Houston @ Sacramento

April 2:
New Orleans @ Miami
Minnesota @ Utah
Golden State @ Dallas
Portland @ Lakers

Starting Lineup
Posts: 528
» Tue Apr 01, 2008 8:40 pm
As of Tuesday night:

Code: Select all
Team          Record    GB    GR    HGR    AGR  GR vs .500  B2B

New Orleans    51-22     0     9      4      5          4     4
San Antonio    52-23     0     7      3      4          5     1
Lakers         50-24   1.5     8      5      3          6     0
Utah           49-26   3.0     7      4      3          6     0
Phoenix        50-25   2.0     7      4      3          4     1
Houston        49-25   2.5     8      3      5          4     2
Dallas         46-28   5.5     8      4      4          6     1
Denver         46-29   6.0     7      3      4          3     2
---------------------------------------------------------------
Golden St      45-29   6.5     8      4      4          4     1




And the udpated Head-to-Head Schedule Comparison between GS, Dallas, and Denver:

Code: Select all
Golden State (45-29)      Denver (45-29)       Dallas (46-28)
3/30 - Dallas  W          3/31 @ Phoenix L     3/30  @ Warriors L
4/1 - @ San Antonio L     4/1  Phoenix W       3/31  @ Clippers W
4/2 - @ Dallas            4/5  Sacramento      4/2  Warriors
4/4 - @ Memphis           4/6 @ Seattle        4/4 @ Lakers
4/6 - @ New Orleans       4/8 @ Clippers       4/6 @ Phoenix
4/8 - Sacramento          4/10 @ Golden St     4/8 Seattle
4/10 - Denver             4/12 @ Utah          4/10 Utah
4/12 - Clippers           4/13  Houston        4/12 @ Portland
4/14 - @ Phoenix          4/15  Memphis        4/13 @ Seattle
4/16 - Seattle                                 4/16  NO




April 2:
New Orleans @ Miami
Minnesota @ Utah
Golden State @ Dallas
Portland @ Lakers
Last edited by hoopitup on Wed Apr 02, 2008 11:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.

All Star
Posts: 2714
» Tue Apr 01, 2008 10:51 pm
so we beat mavs and we are back to three way tie??

lol
change the banner where three way happens
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Hall of Famer
Posts: 18315
» Wed Apr 02, 2008 12:33 am
JOEL wrote:change the banner where three way happens


I don't know if that's a good motto for our banner, JOEL... :wink:

All Star
Posts: 2714
» Wed Apr 02, 2008 4:16 pm
TMC wrote:
JOEL wrote:change the banner where three way happens


I don't know if that's a good motto for our banner, JOEL... :wink:



i was in Qubec once and i have a fond memory...umm wait , what kinda three way were u thinking :mrgreen:

Starting Lineup
Posts: 528
» Wed Apr 02, 2008 11:14 pm
As of Wed night, not looking good for the Ws! The Warriors now would lose in a two way tiebreaker with either Denver or Dallas, and also would lose in a 3 way tiebreaker with both Dallas and Denver. They have to finish a game ahead of either of those teams to make the playoffs.

Code: Select all
Team          Record    GB    GR    HGR    AGR  GR vs .500  B2B

New Orleans    52-22     0     8      4      4          4     3
San Antonio    52-23   0.5     7      3      4          5     1
Lakers         51-24   1.5     7      4      3          5     0
Utah           50-26   3.0     6      3      3          6     0
Phoenix        50-25   2.5     7      4      3          4     1
Houston        49-25   3.0     8      3      5          4     2
Dallas         47-28   5.5     7      3      4          5     1
Denver         46-29   6.5     7      3      4          3     2
---------------------------------------------------------------
Golden St      45-30   7.5     7      4      3          3     0




And the udpated Head-to-Head Schedule Comparison between GS, Dallas, and Denver:

Code: Select all
Golden State (45-29)      Denver (45-29)       Dallas (46-28)
3/30 - Dallas  W          3/31 @ Phoenix L     3/30  @ Warriors L
4/1 - @ San Antonio L     4/1  Phoenix W       3/31  @ Clippers W
4/2 - @ Dallas L          4/5  Sacramento      4/2  Warriors W
4/4 - @ Memphis           4/6 @ Seattle        4/4 @ Lakers
4/6 - @ New Orleans       4/8 @ Clippers       4/6 @ Phoenix
4/8 - Sacramento          4/10 @ Golden St     4/8 Seattle
4/10 - Denver             4/12 @ Utah          4/10 Utah
4/12 - Clippers           4/13  Houston        4/12 @ Portland
4/14 - @ Phoenix          4/15  Memphis        4/13 @ Seattle
4/16 - Seattle                                 4/16  NO




April 3:
Houston @ Portland

April 4:
New York @ New Orleans
San Antonio @ Utah
Golden State @ Memphis
Minnesota @ Phoenix
Dallas @ Lakers
Houston @ Seattle

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