West Playoff Race - Remaining Schedule Comparison

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Starting Lineup
Posts: 528
» Sat Mar 01, 2008 10:25 pm
I've read in various places about which teams have harder schedules remaining, so I thought I'd actually pull togehter the facts.

Here are the stats on the schedules remaining for the 9 teams realistically in the playoff hunt in the West:

Lakers: 23 games left, 14 H, 9 A -- 13 against teams over .500
San Antonio 25 games left, 13 H, 12 A -- 15 against teams over .500
New Orleans: 25 games left, 11 H, 14 A -- 14 against teams over .500
Phoenix 23 games left, 11 H, 12 A -- 16 against teams over .500
Dallas 23 games left, 13 H, 10 A -- 14 against teams over .500
Utah 22 games left, 13 H, 9 A -- 12 against teams over .500
Houston 24 games left, 12 H, 12 A -- 13 against teams over .500
Denver 24 games left, 11 H, 13 A -- 15 against teams over .500
Golden State: 25 games left, 11 H, 14 A -- 15 against teams over .500


Utah and the Lakers have the easiest schedule - fewest games against tough opponents, and fewest road games. The Warriors have the most road games left, and have as many or more tough opponents as anyone except Phoenix. Phoenix has the toughest competition left. The good news for the Warriors is that Denver has almost as tough a schedule as the Warriors have left, and Denver has a much worse road record than the Ws.

Based on form, San Antonio, LA, and Houston have been playing the best and Dallas and Phoenix have been playing the worst. It's hard to believe Houston will keep up the pace, but they may have enough of a lead over Denver and the Ws to stay in the playoffs. I could see Phoenix slipping quite a bit over the next month, with their poor form lately and their tough schedule. But, it's hard to imagine them falling all the way out of the playoffs.

My prediction for the final West standings:

San Antonio
Lakers
New Orleans
Utah
Dallas
Phoenix
Golden State
Houston
---------
Denver
Portland
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All Star
Posts: 2325
» Sun Mar 02, 2008 1:48 pm
Just as a comparison. The Warriors 1st 25 games of the season.

12 H
13 A
14 teams with a .500+ record
6 Back to Backs (there are 7 in the last 25)

In these games the W's went 14-11 (Including the 6 game losing streak)

5 of those 14 wins were against teams with a .500+ record, the rest were sub .500.

7 wins on the road and 7 at home.

Starting Lineup
Posts: 528
» Sun Mar 02, 2008 10:15 pm
Interesting comparison to the start of the season, Captain Jack. I would say that the Ws are a better team now than at the beginning of the season, for several reason:

-- Monta is playing much better
-- Not missing Jackson for the first 6 games
-- Emergence of Brandan Wright
-- Adding Chris Webber

Even though Webber has not done a lot yet, he has started to play solid in the minutes he gets, and he gives the team more depth and experience at the power forward/center positions.

Anyway, I would say that it's realistic to expect the Ws to get 14-15 wins out of their final 25, and hit the 50 win mark.

Another interesting comparison - last year, they went 16-9 in their final 25 games. They had 11 home games and 14 road games (the same as this year). And they had 14 games against teams over .500 in their final 25, so they had basically the same kind of finishing schedule last year as this year.
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Franchise Player
Posts: 9163
» Sun Mar 02, 2008 10:18 pm
Nice thread and comparison. I think this deserves to be a sticky pending on how popular this thread gets since we need a thread to give us updates on how the playoff race looks like instead of going back and forth to the NBA website.

Starting Lineup
Posts: 528
» Sun Mar 02, 2008 10:49 pm
To make this easier to read, I've tried to put it into a table, ordered by the place in the standings for the top 9 teams. Here's the update including today's games:

GR = Games Remaining
HGR = Home Games Remaining
AGR = Away Games Remaining


Code: Select all
Team          GB     GR     HGR     AGR     GR vs .500Teams

San Antonio    0     24      12      12            15
Lakers         0     22      13       9            12
New Orleans    2     24      11      13            14
Utah           4     22      13       9            12
Houston      2.5     23      11      12            12
Phoenix      2.5     23      11      12            16
Dallas         3     22      13       9            13
Golden St      5     24      10      14            14
------------------------------------------------------------
Denver       6.5     23      11      12            13


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Hall of Famer
Posts: 18315
» Mon Mar 03, 2008 3:20 am
xbaywarrior wrote:Nice thread and comparison. I think this deserves to be a sticky pending on how popular this thread gets since we need a thread to give us updates on how the playoff race looks like instead of going back and forth to the NBA website.


I like the idea. I'm gonna sticky this one, so people can keep posting an updating it til the end of the regular season.

All Star
Posts: 2714
» Mon Mar 03, 2008 10:12 am
nice job hoop-
warriors will make at least 51 wins.
we play well on the raod and we tend to step up our game against better teams.
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Franchise Player
Posts: 5705
» Mon Mar 03, 2008 4:41 pm
TMC wrote:
xbaywarrior wrote:Nice thread and comparison. I think this deserves to be a sticky pending on how popular this thread gets since we need a thread to give us updates on how the playoff race looks like instead of going back and forth to the NBA website.


I like the idea. I'm gonna sticky this one, so people can keep posting an updating it til the end of the regular season.


Good idea. I was just about to create a new one, devoted to just that.

Beat me to it. :roll: :wink:
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Site Admin
Posts: 4047
» Mon Mar 03, 2008 5:00 pm
Nice thread, looks like the Ws have a ruff road ahead of them with only 10 home games and 14 .500 teams.

Starting Lineup
Posts: 528
» Mon Mar 03, 2008 9:34 pm
Updated with games from March 3, and adding in the record for teams.

New Orleans beat NY, but they struggled to do so. Dallas got way behind Utah (down 14 at halftime), but fought back to take the lead in the 4th, only to end up losing to the Jazz.

But before you start assuming that the Ws will catch the Mavs, note that Dallas only has 8 road games left, the Mavs have only lost 3 times ALL YEAR at home, and they have not lost at home since December. They have 9 of their next 10 at home, and only 4 of those 10 games are against teams over .500. This stretch should go a long way toward determining their playoff fate, as they finish with a tough stretch of 7 out of 11 on the road, and 8 out of their last 11 are against winning teams.

GR = Games Remaining
HGR = Home Games Remaining
AGR = Away Games Remaining


Code: Select all
Team          Record    GB     GR     HGR     AGR     GR vs .500Teams

San Antonio    41-17     0     24      12      12            15
Lakers         42-18     0     22      13       9            12
New Orleans    40-19   1.5     23      11      12            14
Utah           39-22   3.5     21      12       9            11
Houston        39-20   2.5     23      11      12            12
Phoenix        39-20   2.5     23      11      12            16
Dallas         39-22   3.5     21      13       8            12
Golden St      36-22     5     24      10      14            14
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Denver         35-24   6.5     23      11      12            13



All Star
Posts: 2035
» Mon Mar 03, 2008 10:42 pm
After Mar 21 the W's have a bunch of hard games against top teams!!!
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Franchise Player
Posts: 9163
» Mon Mar 03, 2008 11:50 pm
J-Rich wrote:After Mar 21 the W's have a bunch of hard games against top teams!!!


That'll be one hell of a stretch then. Can't wait.

Start up the WE BELIEVE MOVEMENT 2008!
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Hall of Famer
Posts: 18315
» Tue Mar 04, 2008 3:54 am
Thanks for updating the thread, hoopitup.
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Site Admin
Posts: 4047
» Tue Mar 04, 2008 4:28 pm
hoopitup wrote:But before you start assuming that the Ws will catch the Mavs, note that Dallas only has 8 road games left, the Mavs have only lost 3 times ALL YEAR at home, and they have not lost at home since December. They have 9 of their next 10 at home, and only 4 of those 10 games are against teams over .500. This stretch should go a long way toward determining their playoff fate, as they finish with a tough stretch of 7 out of 11 on the road, and 8 out of their last 11 are against winning teams.
Damn, hoops comin hard with the stats.
xbay wrote:Start up the WE BELIEVE MOVEMENT 2008!
I've already been on that shhit, we need no. 7 though because I don't think we stand a chance against the Lakers.

Starting Lineup
Posts: 528
» Tue Mar 04, 2008 10:44 pm
Updated with games from March 4:

Lakers come from behind most of the game to beat Sac, and Phoenix hangs on to beat Portland. All of the West top 8 who played won tonight.

GR = Games Remaining
HGR = Home Games Remaining
AGR = Away Games Remaining


Code: Select all
Team          Record    GB     GR     HGR     AGR     GR vs .500Teams

San Antonio    42-17     0     23      11      12            15
Lakers         43-18     0     21      13       8            12
New Orleans    40-19   2.0     23      11      12            14
Utah           39-22   4.0     21      12       9            11
Phoenix        40-20   2.5     22      11      11            15
Houston        39-20   3.0     23      11      12            12
Dallas         39-22   4.0     21      13       8            12
Golden St      37-22   5.0     23      10      13            14
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Denver         35-24   7.0     23      11      12            13




March 5 games:

Golden St @ Charlotte
Atlanta @ New Orleans
Indianapolis @ Houston
Phoenix @ Denver
Minnesota @ Utah

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