Road to the playoffs

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 18, 2007 6:25 pm
JR23 wrote:The lakers are starting to fall apart. what are we, 2? 3 games behind them? if the warriors keep playing like they are, the Lakers better watch out.

If the Warriors keep playing like they are, the entire league better take notice.

The problem is, you can't expect a good streak to last forever. The Warriors will probably lose one of the tougher matchups coming up... the key is to not freak out and melt down; if Golden State can recover from losses, they'll be alright.
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 18, 2007 6:40 pm
32 wrote:
JR23 wrote:The lakers are starting to fall apart. what are we, 2? 3 games behind them? if the warriors keep playing like they are, the Lakers better watch out.

If the Warriors keep playing like they are, the entire league better take notice.

The problem is, you can't expect a good streak to last forever. The Warriors will probably lose one of the tougher matchups coming up... the key is to not freak out and melt down; if Golden State can recover from losses, they'll be alright.


yea. The warriors will lose games. And they have a hard stretch comming up. They play Utah and Washington this week. Both are tough games, but they are winable. I think the Warriors have alot of depth in their starting 5. Every guy on the court can score. There arent alot of teams that have that.
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 18, 2007 7:32 pm
So LA holds on to beat Minnesota, but they almost blew their lead.

Anyone watch the Lakers/Minn game at halftime? Greg Anthony talked about the playoff race in the West, and he picked Sacramento and the Clips to take the 7th and 8th spots, leaving out the Lakers and the Ws. He didn't have a lot of conviction, but he said that the teams were pretty even and he went with "the teams with the veteran leadership".

I agree that LA did not look that great tonight, but they are still in great shape. After tonight's win, they have:

15 games left, 7 road, and 8 home (plus, one of their road games is against the Clips, so it's basically a home game)

5 games against Playoff bound teams
6 games against teams fighting for playoffs
4 games against teams out of playoffs

I think LA will hold on; compared to the other 5 teams they have the easiest schedule, and they have a decent cushion after tonight (4 games in the loss column over the Ws and Clips, 5 games over the other teams). Interesting that the Lakers could have an impact on the 8th spot, as they have 6 games against the West teams fighting for the playoffs.

That means that if the Lakers just go 6-9 in their remaining games, they end up 41-41, and the other teams would have to have these records to get ahead of them (the Lakers already own the tiebreaker with the Ws and Minnesota, and are likely to have the tiebreaker over Sac and LAC. The only team that has 2 wins against the Lakers is NO, so NO could win the tiebreaker):

Ws: 10-4
Clips: 12-4
Sac: 13-3
Minn: 14-3
NO: 12-4

I just can't see any of these 5 teams winning that many games down the stretch. Now you can assume that the Lakers don't win 6 games, but you can see that even if the Lakers only win 4 or 5 games, then TWO of the other 5 teams still needs a helluva run to catch them and bump them out of the playoffs. Maybe one of these 5 teams can do it, but not two.

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 18, 2007 7:42 pm
To fill out the remaining schedule comparison, we should probably include Denver. They have a ton of road games left and play a lot of playoff contenders:

18 games left, 13 on the road and only 5 at home

10 games against playoff bound teams
5 games against playoff contending teams
3 games against teams out of the playoffs


The one point, though, is that Denver is almost as good on the road as they are at home to date (14-14 on the road, 19-17 at home). But 13 road games in the next 4.5 weeks is a lot of road games.

If there's a team ahead of the Ws that can be caught, I'd say it's more likely to be Denver than the Lakers. But I still don't think it's that likely, as Denver is playing well right now.

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 18, 2007 8:19 pm
good post

the warriors have to win the least amount of games, which is good, but i think they have a lot of games on the road. Hopefully, the Warriors will be able to hold on.
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 18, 2007 8:49 pm
We should get it as long as we don't screw up big time. Most other teams have more road games than us.
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 18, 2007 10:59 pm
coltraning wrote:
hoopitup wrote:I took the analysis one step further, breaking the schedules down in March versus April.

I look at the next 2 weeks as critical for the W's. Between now and the end of March, three of the other four teams play significantly more games than the Ws:

Minn: 8 games left in March (4, 1, 3) **
Clips: 8 games left in March (4, 2, 2)
NO/OK: 7 games left in March (4, 1, 2)
Sac: 5 games left in March (2, 2, 1)
Ws: 5 games left in March (5, 0, 0)

**Using the format of classifying opponents as Playoff Bound, Fighting for Playoffs, or Out of playoffs, I've noted that breakdown in parentheses above (for example, Minnesota has 4 games against playoff bound teams, 1 against teams fighting for the final spot, and 3 games against a team out of the playoffs)

Clearly the Ws have the toughest March schedule in terms of quality of opponent.

Then, in April, the teams will have this breakdown:

Minn: 10 games left, 6 home/4 road (5, 4, 1)**
Clips: 9 games, 5 home/4 road (5, 3, 1)
NO/OK: 9 games, 4 home/5 road (3, 4, 2)
Sac: 11 games, 6 home/5 road (7, 3, 1)
Ws: 9 games, 4 home/5 road (4, 2, 3)


So Sacramento and Minnesota have an advantage in April with 6 home games still left. But it seems the the Warriors and NO/OK have the easiest April schedules, and Sacramento has the toughest. So, if the W's can be in the 8th spot or within a game of it coming out of March, they should be in very good shape. We need to see Minnesota, the Clips, and NO/Ok rack up the losses this month as they play pretty heavy schedules, and hopefully the Ws can manage to get at least 2, ideally 3, wins out of their next 5.

excellent analysis. I would add that the only teams playing decent ball of the other 4 fighting for 8th seed are Clips and Kings. Minny and NOK are pretty much done and last night's game pretty much finished off the sonics. If Ws can come out of March 35-38, they will be in the driver's seat.



Very nice analysis. The team has the upper hand right now and only they can stuff it. TWolves, Hornets, Clips and Kings are all still in it, just too many games left still. Kings, if Artest steps up, are the ones that look the most dangerous. TWolves could rise up but it will be a change from what has happened recently. Clipper just have been a surprise to most (not to me as I picked that they would not be as good before the season) and they wil likely not rise up.

the team has to continue as they have and they won't have to rely on other teams losing to get in
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2007 5:46 pm
the sac queens lost to atl with josh smith 1 point away from his first triple double of his young career. The warriors pick up half a game on the queens
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2007 7:41 pm
PhaNxTasY wrote:the sac queens lost to atl with josh smith 1 point away from his first triple double of his young career. The warriors pick up half a game on the queens



Kings are looking weak right now and Artest isn't stepping up. If he doesn't, they have no chance
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2007 7:50 pm
The next stretch of games are tough. We got the Jazz tomorrow following up against the Wiz. Then on against the Suns/Spurs in a back-to-back. An so on... The Warriors know what they're doing, and Nellie is doing a great job keeping Baron rested and the rotation moving along. And the Clips are now a game behind us.

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2007 8:16 pm
Big loss for Sacramento tonight, losing to one of the weakest teams in the league. Those are the ones that playoff teams have to win. Would have been nice to see NO/Ok lose to Boston, but it was a game you figured they would win (home game against one of the weaker teams in the league).

Between the two teams, Sacramento scares me more than NO/Ok, so if one of these two had to win today, I'd rather it be NO/Ok.

Tomorrow will be big --

Clips at Chicago
NO/Ok at Memphis
Minny at Phoenix
Ws at Utah

You'd expect everyone to lose except NO (on the road against tough teams). And even though NO is playing a weak team, it is on the road and it is a back to back, so all 4 teams could easily lose.

If the Ws don't lose ground tomorrow (particularly to the Clips), I'd consider it a good night.
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2007 8:32 pm
hoopitup wrote:
Tomorrow will be big --

Clips at Chicago
NO/Ok at Memphis
Minny at Phoenix
Ws at Utah


i believe the clips will lose, believe pheonix will win, i BELIEVE the hornets will loose on the end of a back to back, and my biggest BILEVE GOES TO THE WARRIORS winning tmr in utah. :mrgreen: plz let it happen. i believe
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 20, 2007 4:43 am
After reading hoopitup analysis, I'm ashamed of my lame attempt. Well done, buddy. :thumbleft:

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 20, 2007 8:43 pm
Gee, if there is one word for the season, it should be squandered. Player for player, Utah is not a better team than the Warriors, they just know how to win. The Warriors are the best 3 1/2 game team in the league and now neck and neck with the dissappointing Clippers and up and down Hornets. Since we have yet to get a Gasol or KG for Ellis offer, I think we should take a look at shaken up the roster again. We unloaded Dunleavy, Fisher, and Murphy in one season, we should be able to unload some combination of Harrington, J-Rich, BD, Pietrus and Foyle for some type of expiring contract. To play in the playoffs and to play in the big leagues we need, players that stay healthy and can rebound and execute a half court offense and defense. How many more years should we mortgage the franchise to a PG that can't stay healthy and a PF that can't defend or rebound for his position. We may have Biedrins and a surplus of 2/3s, but who in the NBA does not have a lot of gifted 2/3 players and servicable center. I like our roster and our team is entertaining for the most part, but we have players that believe a fancy pass or great three pointer will make up for lack of hustle, position defense and rebounding.
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 20, 2007 8:45 pm
dareedle wrote:Gee, if there is one word for the season, it should be squandered.


I stopped reading right about here.
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